20230514-浙商证券-金属数据周报（2023年第20周）_22页_2mb
报告摘要
- Summary of Metal Prices and Trends as of 2023年第20周 (March 14, 2023), from the report by Analyst Sh Yi:
- Gold: Current price is 4,529元/克, up 29% from Q4 2022, signaling potential growth if US interest rate differential inverts.
- **Lithium:**碳酸锂价格 is 225万元/吨, up 59%, with strong production/demand balance issues; exports/import data show retention challenges.
- Copper: Price at 671万元/吨, up 16%, driven by supply increases and macro funds flowing into real economy (based on M2 growth comparison).
- Aluminum: Recent cost-driven profit declines, around 3,000元/吨 below breakeven, supported by low inventory but weak consumption.
- Key themes: Economic recovery in China boosts renewable investments, though risks include demand shortfalls and calculation errors.
- Renewables: High growth expected in solar, wind, EVs, and storage (e.g., global solar additions projected up 36% YoY), influenced by policy and market trends.
- Risk Factors: Economic slowdowns or miscalculations in demand could affect prices; report emphasizes uncertainty.
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