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报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DAILY Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the Turkish currency and financial market conditions as of 23 March 2018, focusing on the foreign exchange (FX) market, inflationary pressures, and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT)’s response to the depreciation of the Turkish Lira (TRY).

Main Points

1. TRY Performance and FX Dynamics

The Turkish Lira (TRY) underperformed its emerging market (EM) peers by 1% due to worsening external imbalances and a significant deterioration in global risk sentiment caused by US tariffs on China.
Local investors have been providing FX, but corporate entities have been less willing to supply FX, likely due to their high open FX positions.
The FX deposits from local investors decreased by USD 1.2bn during the week ending 16 March, easing offshore outflows.
Corporate FX deposits have remained flat, while all FX supply came from individual investors, who do not have FX liabilities and tend to take profits when TRY depreciates.
As of 16 March, individual investors still have USD 3.4bn in FX deposits above their recent low from November, indicating they have room to sell FX in the short term.

2. Carry Trade Positioning

Offshore investors reduced their carry trade position by USD 3bn during the week ending 16 March.
Despite this reduction, the carry trade position remains USD 9bn above its November low, indicating that offshore positioning is still substantial.
The CBRT has been conducting FX forward sale auctions to manage depreciation pressure. These auctions are held in 1m, 3m, and 6m maturities, with USD 150mn of 1m auctions three times a week.
The outstanding amount of these auctions reached USD 4bn by the end of 2017, and the CBRT is expected to announce the Q2 schedule by the end of March.

3. Inflationary Pressures

The recent depreciation of the TRY is expected to add about 1 percentage point (1pp) to headline inflation in the coming months.
If the current basket level of 4.42 is maintained, headline inflation is likely to remain above 11% in Q3.
The CBRT’s survey of expectations indicates an expected inflation of 8.3% after 24 months, which could rise further if inflation accelerates.
The CBRT may be pressured to tighten monetary policy ahead of the MPC meeting on 25 April.

4. CBRT's Policy Options

The CBRT could increase the amount of FX forward auctions and make an early announcement to manage depreciation pressure.
Another option is to allow corporates to make payments in TRY instead of USD for rediscount loan payments, which would ease FX demand for corporates. However, corporates are unlikely to sell this FX to the market due to their cautious stance on FX risk.
The government has also introduced a policy limiting FX borrowing for small corporates with no FX revenues and FX debt below USD 15mn, effective on 2 May. This could increase FX demand as maturing loans are renewed in TRY.

Key Information

FX Deposits: Local FX deposits dropped by USD 1.2bn, while corporate deposits remained flat.
Carry Trade Position: Offshore carry trade position fell by USD 3bn but is still USD 9bn above its November low.
Inflation Impact: TRY depreciation is expected to increase headline inflation by 1pp in the coming months.
CBRT Auctions: Outstanding FX forward auction amounts reached USD 4bn, with plans to announce Q2 schedules by the end of March.
Corporate FX Risk: Corporates have USD 213bn in short FX positions and are more cautious about FX risk.
Legal and Regulatory Notice: The document is a marketing communication and not independent research. It is intended for professional clients and may not be suitable for all investors. BNPP may have conflicts of interest and may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed.

Charts and Tables

Chart 1: FX deposits (bn USD) showing the trend and levels of local and corporate FX deposits.
Chart 2: Portfolio flows of offshore investors (year-to-date, bn USD) indicating the scale of FX inflows and outflows.
Table 1: Summary of Turkish market data, including FX rates, bond yields, and inflation expectations.

Contacts

Wike Groenenberg: Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC, London
Marcelo Carvalho: Head of Emerging Markets Research, Sao Paulo Latam
Piotr Chwiejczak: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
Erkin Isik, CFA: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul
Sai Ulluri: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
Mirza Baig: Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
Dawn Kwa: Graduate, Singapore
Altaz Daga: AU/NZ IR Strategist, Singapore
Kun Shan: China Strategist, Shanghai
Tianhe Ji: China Strategist, Beijing
Gabriel Gersztein: Head FX & IR Latam Strategy, Sao Paulo
Samuel Castro: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo
Gustavo Mendonca: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo

Legal Disclaimer

This document is a marketing communication and not independent research.
It is not intended for retail investors and may not be suitable for all investors.
BNPP may have conflicts of interest and may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed.
The document may include performance data based on back-testing and is for illustrative purposes only.
The information is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness and should not be relied upon as such.
BNPP and its affiliates may hold positions or act as market makers in the financial instruments discussed.

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