20240121-创元期货-镍_不锈钢周报_持续累库下的镍价等待矛盾积累足够_14页_1mb

Nickel & Stainless Steel Market Summary (Based on Weekly Report)

Nickel Market

• Nickel prices experienced震荡 throughout the week, with a range of 125-129万元/吨. Fundamental factors lack strong guidance, as硫酸镍产量下降 and 12月份数据 show a mix of demand from battery materials and supply adjustments. Battery级硫酸镍报价周五上调100元/吨 to 265万/吨, reflecting increased demand from三元材料补库, which saw成交折扣系数 rise to 95折, boosting电积镍成本 to 1239万吨. Despite this,精炼镍社会库存环比 jumped 280 tons to 19198万吨, indicating a sustained累库 trend, supporting原料端 prices but leaving electernickel成交 weak. Without significant changes, the outlook remains bearish for nickel prices.

Stainless Steel Market

-盘面价格表现偏强,现货价格被动跟随, with NPI成交价降至930元/镍点,环比下跌30元/镍点. 3系不锈钢利润有所走扩, but mainstream钢厂尚未调整期单报价, suggesting lower-than-expected seasonal减产. Despite steel output increases, 3系不锈钢社会库存小幅累库125万吨 to 4404万吨. The market advises caution on盘面价格 above 14000元/吨, as fundamentals indicate potential risks.

Key Risks

• Domestic电积镍投产进度可能 slower than expected.
• Unanticipated growth in新能源消费 could disrupt balances.
• Potential镍价逼仓 in both domestic and international markets.

Overall Assessment

• Current fundamentals suggest a wait for accumulated contradictions to resolve.镍价 likely remain under pressure due to supply and demand dynamics, while不锈钢 market shows mixed signals with cautious profit expectations. Regular monitoring of inventory and price trends is recommended for investment decisions.