2023-07-18-莱坊-Regional_Tasmania_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_526kb

Regional Tasmania Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

This summary presents the quarterly residential market analysis for Regional Tasmania, highlighting trends in population, economic performance, property sales, rental markets, and lending conditions. It also includes forecasts for the next few years, based on data from Knight Frank Research and Oxford Economics.

Key Statistics

• Population Growth (2022): 0.6%
• Unemployment Rate (March 2023): 4.7%
• Residential Rental Vacancy (March 2023): 1.6%
• Median House Value (March 2023): $536,500
• Annual Median House Value Growth (2022): 9.2%
• Annual Median Weekly Rental Growth (2022): 11.4%
• Average Days on Market (March 2023): 47 days

Main Drivers

Population Trends

• Regional Tasmania's population in 2022 was estimated at 318,750.
• Annual population change was 0.6% in 2022, with a projected 0.0% annual growth from 2023 to 2041.
• Inner regional areas saw 0.5% growth, while outer regional areas recorded 0.8% growth in 2022.

Economic Performance

• Economic growth in Tasmania was 3.5% in 2022, with a forecast of -0.4% for 2023.
• Regional Tasmania's unemployment rate in March 2023 was 4.7%, an increase of 215 bps from the previous quarter.

Market Performance

Sales

• House sales volume in Regional Tasmania declined 17.0% in the year ending March 2023, with 1,509 houses sold.
• The average days on market for houses increased slightly to 47 days in the March 2023 quarter, compared to 38 days one quarter earlier.

Price Growth

• Capital values for houses rose 9.2% over the year to March 2023, but fell 0.2% in the last quarter.
• The median house value stood at $536,500 at the end of March 2023.

Rental Market

• Residential rental vacancy in regional Australia rose to 1.6% in March 2023, an increase of 12 bps from the previous quarter.
• Gross rental yields for Regional Tasmania houses increased by 3 bps, reaching 4.58%.
• Rents increased 3.5% for houses in the March 2023 quarter and trended up 11.4% over the past year, with median rents at $440 per week.

Lending Environment

• New household loan commitments in Tasmania decreased 3.9% in the March 2023 quarter, a smaller decline than the -13.6% in the previous quarter.
• Lending commitments to first home buyers increased 17.6% in March 2023, compared to 10.0% a year earlier.
• First home buyers represented 18.2% of all owner occupier loans in March 2023.
• The official cash rate was raised to 4.10% by the Reserve Bank of Australia in June 2023, with a forecast to decrease to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.
• Average mortgage lending rates for owner occupiers increased by 3 bps to 6.27% for 3-year fixed term loans and by 50 bps to 8.02% for standard variable loans.
• For investors, 3-year fixed term rates decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%, while standard variable rates rose by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Residential Market Forecast (2023–2025)

Source: Knight Frank Research

Conclusion

Despite a decline in house sales volume and modest price growth, the Regional Tasmania residential market has shown resilience, with the lowest number of days on market across regional Australia. The rental market continues to perform strongly, with rising rents and gross rental yields. Lending conditions remain mixed, with a slight decline in household loan commitments but an increase in support for first home buyers. The outlook for the market is expected to stabilize, with modest price growth and slower rental growth anticipated over the next few years.