2023-07-18-莱坊-Regional_Victoria_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_521kb

Regional Victoria Residential Insight Summary - Q2 2023

Core Content Overview

This report provides a quarterly analysis of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in Regional Victoria, highlighting trends, challenges, and forecasts for the residential sector. It is based on data from Knight Frank Research and the Reserve Bank of Australia, with additional insights from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Oxford Economics.

Key Trends and Statistics

Population Growth

• 2022 Population: Estimated at 1.6 million persons.
• Annual Population Change (2022): 1.1%.
• Projected Growth (2041): Slower at 0.7% per annum.
• Inner Regional Growth (2022): 1.2% annually.
• Outer Regional Growth (2022): 0.2% annually.

Economic Performance

• Victoria Economic Growth (2022): 4.6%.
• Forecast for 2023: 1.3% (Oxford Economics).
• Regional Victoria Unemployment (March 2023): 3.5%, up 132 bps from the previous quarter.

Lending Environment

• Official Cash Rate (June 2023): Raised 50 bps over three months to 4.10%.
• Forecast for 2024: Expected to decrease to an average of 3.94%.
• Mortgage Rates (March 2023):
  • Owner Occupier 3-Year Fixed: Increased by 3 bps to 6.27%.
  • Owner Occupier Variable: Rose by 50 bps to 8.02%.
  • Investor 3-Year Fixed: Decreased by 1 bp to 6.32%.
  • Investor Variable: Increased by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Housing Market Performance

• Median House Value (March 2023): $683,000.
• Annual Price Change (Year to March 2023): 3.7% increase.
• Last Quarter Price Change: 1.3% decrease.
• Annual Sales Volume (Year to March 2023): 20,289 houses, down 22.9% compared to the previous year.
• Average Days on Market (March 2023): 60 days, up from 53 days one quarter ago.

Rental Market Performance

• Total Residential Rental Vacancy (March 2023): 2.1%, up from 1.9% last quarter and 1.4% one year ago.
• Gross Rental Yield (March 2023): Increased by 2 bps to 3.96%.
• Annual Median Weekly Rent (March 2023): $440, up 4.8% over the past year.
• Annual Rent Decrease: 2.2% for houses in the March 2023 quarter.

Forecast Outlook

Key Drivers Forecast (Oxford Economics)

Regional Victoria Residential Forecast (Knight Frank Research)

Main Points

• Sales and Prices: Sales volume in Regional Victoria fell by 22.9% in the year to March 2023, while median house values increased by 3.7% annually but decreased by 1.3% in the last quarter.
• Rental Market: Vacancy rates have risen, easing some pressure on rental prices, but rents still decreased by 2.2% in the March 2023 quarter and increased by 4.8% over the past year.
• Lending Environment: Mortgage rates have risen significantly, particularly for variable loans, impacting both owner occupiers and investors.
• Future Outlook: The forecast indicates a slowdown in economic growth and a potential decline in property prices over the next few years, with rental market growth expected to remain stable.

Conclusion

The Regional Victoria residential market is facing headwinds due to rising mortgage rates and a slowdown in population and economic growth. While rental market pressures have eased slightly due to increased vacancies, rental yields have remained relatively stable. The forecast suggests a likely decline in property values and modest rental growth in the coming years, with the lending environment expected to remain tight.