2023-07-18-莱坊-Regional_WA_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_535kb

报告摘要

Regional WA Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a quarterly analysis of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in Regional Western Australia (WA) by Knight Frank. It outlines the current performance and future projections of the residential market, considering population trends, economic indicators, lending conditions, and price and rental data.

Key Market Performance

Population Growth

2022 Population: Estimated at 563,500 persons.
Annual Population Change (2022): 1.0%.
Projected Growth (2041): 0.7% per annum.
Inner Regional Growth (2022): 1.6%.
Outer Regional Growth (2022): 0.7%.

Economic Growth

2022 Economic Growth: 5.6%.
2023 Forecast: 4.3% (Oxford Economics).
Regional WA Unemployment (March 2023): 2.8%, trending 70 bps below the previous quarter.

Lending Environment

New Household Loan Commitments (March 2023): Decreased by 6.3% compared to the previous quarter.
First Home Buyer Loans (March 2023): Increased by 20.6% compared to March 2022, representing 22.9% of all owner occupier loans.
Cash Rate Target (June 2023): Raised to 4.10% by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
**Forecast for Cash Rate (End of 2024)****: Expected to be reduced to an average of 3.94%.
Mortgage Lending Rates (March 2023):
- Owner Occupier:
  - 3-Year Fixed: Increased by 3 bps to 6.27%.
  - Standard Variable: Increased by 50 bps to 8.02%.
- Investors:
  - 3-Year Fixed: Decreased by 1 bp to 6.32%.
  - Standard Variable: Increased by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Housing Market Trends

Established Houses

Median House Value (March 2023): $498,500.
Annual Change in Median House Value: 0.5%.
Annual Median Weekly Rental Growth (March 2023): 13.3%.
Median Weekly Rent (March 2023): $425.
Sales Volume (Year to March 2023): Trended down by 10.3% to 4,383 houses.
Average Days on Market (March 2023): 71 days, same as one quarter ago.

Rental Market

Residential Rental Vacancy (March 2023): 1.6%, up 12 bps from the previous quarter.
Gross Rental Yield (March 2023): Increased by 8 bps to 5.19%.
Annual Rental Growth (March 2023): 3.7% for houses.

Future Market Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (Oxford Economics)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023-2025f AVE
Economic Growth	4.4%	2.0%	0.3%	0.7%	2.6%	1.2%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.9%	4.2%	4.1%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	3.9%	2.9%	3.6%

Regional WA Residential Forecast (Knight Frank Research)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023-2025f AVE
Price Performance	10%	4%	-5%	-4%	-1%	-3%
Rental Market	11%	17%	8%	4%	1%	4%

Key Takeaways

Regional WA continues to show strong rental performance with the highest gross rental yield in Regional Australia.
Population growth remains modest, with a projected slowdown in the coming years.
Economic growth is expected to moderate, and the unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly.
Lending conditions have tightened, with a decline in new household loan commitments.
First home buyers are experiencing increased support in the lending environment.
Mortgage rates have risen significantly, particularly for standard variable loans.
Housing prices in Regional WA are expected to decline over the next few years, while rental growth is anticipated to slow.

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61290366659
Residential Site Sales: Tony Delich
Email: tony.delich@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61892252528
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61290366845
Residential: Erin van Tuil
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61290366699
Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61290366700
Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61290366662