2023-10-01-莱坊-Regional_Victoria_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_657kb

Regional Victoria Residential Insight Summary - Q3 2023

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q3 2023 report provides an in-depth analysis of the residential housing market in Regional Victoria, covering key indicators such as rental demand, economic growth, lending environment, new builds, population trends, and sales and price performance. The report highlights the current state of the market and forecasts its trajectory through 2025.

Main Market Trends

Rental Market

• Rental Vacancy Rate: Total residential rental vacancy in Regional Victoria was 2.3% in June 2023, up from 2.1% in the previous quarter and 1.8% one year earlier.
• Rental Growth: Median weekly rents for houses increased by 7.0% over the past year, reaching $460 per week.
• Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields for houses rose by 2 bps to 4.17% in the June 2023 quarter.
• Rental Price Trends: Rents continued to climb despite increased vacancy, indicating strong demand in the rental market.

Sales and Price Performance

• Sales Volume: Annual sales volume declined by 23.1% to 24,361 houses by June 2023.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for a house increased to 73 days in the June 2023 quarter, up from 63 days one quarter earlier.
• Median House Value: The median house value in Regional Victoria was $655,500 at the end of June 2023, reflecting a -1.1% annual decrease.
• Price Change: Over the year to June 2023, capital values for houses fell by 1.1%, with a further 2.1% decline in the last quarter.

Economic and Lending Environment

• Economic Growth: Victoria's economic growth was 4.7% in 2022, with a forecast of 3.6% in 2025 by Oxford Economics.
• Unemployment Rate: Regional Victoria's unemployment rate was 2.5% in June 2023, a 100 bps improvement from the previous quarter.
• Lending Commitments: New household loan commitments in Victoria increased by 5.5% in the June 2023 quarter, reversing the -10.5% decline in the prior quarter.
• First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to first home buyers fell by 2.5% in June 2023, compared to a 10.6% drop the previous year. First home buyers accounted for 20.3% of all owner occupier loans in Victoria.
• Mortgage Rates:
  • Owner occupier mortgage rates increased by 5 bps to 6.32% for a 3-year fixed term and 50 bps to 8.52% for a standard variable loan.
  • Investor mortgage rates increased by 18 bps to 6.50% for a 3-year fixed term and 50 bps to 9.10% for a standard variable loan.
• Cash Rate Target: The official cash rate target remained at 4.10% for three months, with a forecast of a 3.38% average target by the end of 2025.

New Builds

• Building Approvals: In the quarter to June 2023, 3,974 residential dwellings were approved in Victoria, marking a 65.1% decline compared to the previous quarter.

Population Trends

• Population Estimate: Regional Victoria's population was estimated at 1.6 million in 2022.
• Annual Growth: The annual population change was 1.1% in 2022, with a projected 0.7% annual growth rate by 2041.
• Regional Breakdown:
  • Inner regional areas: 1.2% annual population change.
  • Outer regional areas: 0.2% annual population change.

Market Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (2021–2025)

Regional Victoria Residential Forecast (2021–2025)

Key Contacts

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski | +612 9036 6659 | michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Site Sales: James Thorpe | +613 9604 4625 | james.thorpe@au.knightfrank.com
• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen | +612 9036 6845 | sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential: Erin van Tuil | +612 9036 6699 | erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes | +612 9036 700 | luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter | +612 9036 62 | al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com