2023-07-18-莱坊-Regional_SA_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_512kb

Regional SA Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report presents Knight Frank's quarterly analysis of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in Regional South Australia (SA). It highlights key performance indicators, population trends, economic factors, and the lending environment for the residential real estate sector in the region.

Key Market Performance

Sale Transactions

• Annual Growth: Regional SA recorded the best annual growth in sale transactions among all Regional Australia areas.
• Annual Sales Volume: In the year ending March 2023, 2,962 houses were sold, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the previous year.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for a house in the March 2023 quarter was 92 days, a decrease from 104 days one quarter prior.

Property Prices

• Annual Price Growth: Regional SA experienced the strongest annual price growth across Regional Australia, with a 25.1% increase in median house values.
• Median House Value: The median house value in Regional SA reached $541,500 at the end of March 2023.

Rental Market Trends

• Vacancy Rate: Regional Australia had a 1.6% residential rental vacancy rate in March 2023, up 12 bps from the previous quarter.
• Rental Growth: Median rents in Regional SA increased by 9.3% over the past year, reaching $470 per week.
• Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields for Regional SA houses decreased by 17 bps, to 4.99% in the March 2023 quarter.

Key Drivers

Population Growth

• 2022 Population: Regional SA had an estimated population of 403,000, with an annual change of 0.6%.
• Future Projections: Projected population growth to 2041 is 0.1% per annum, significantly lower than the 2022 rate.
• Inner vs. Outer Regional: Inner regional areas saw a 1.4% annual population increase, while outer regional areas recorded 0.2%.

Economic Growth

• 2022 Growth: SA's economic growth was estimated at 4.4% in 2022.
• 2023 Forecast: A forecast of -0.2% economic growth for 2023.
• Unemployment Rate: Regional SA's unemployment rate was 4.4% in March 2023, 99 bps below the rate from the previous quarter.

Lending Environment

• Household Loan Commitments: New household loan commitments in SA decreased by 5.4% in the March 2023 quarter, a slower decline than the -9.7% in the previous quarter.

• First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to owner occupier first home buyers increased by 42.0% in March 2023, compared to 15.3% a year earlier.

• Loan Rates:

  • Owner Occupier Loans:
    • 3-year fixed term: 6.27% (up 3 bps).
    • Standard variable loan: 8.02% (up 50 bps).
  • Investor Loans:
    • 3-year fixed term: 6.32% (down 1 bp).
    • Standard variable loan: 8.60% (up 50 bps).

• Cash Rate Target: The official cash rate was raised by 50 bps to 4.10% by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in June 2023. Oxford Economics forecasts a reduction to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.

Future Outlook

Forecasted Trends (2023–2025)

• Price Growth: Expected to decline from 18% in 2023 to 3% in 2025, with a 3-year average of 9%.
• Rental Growth: Projected to decrease from 6% in 2023 to 2% in 2025, with a 3-year average of 3%.

Contact Information

For further inquiries or property advice, contact the following experts:

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
  Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Residential Site Sales: Oliver Totani
  Email: oliver.totani@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +618 8233 5210

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edwardsen
  Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil
  Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6699

• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
  Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 700

• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
  Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 62