2023-07-18-莱坊-Regional_NSW_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_525kb

Regional NSW Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q2 2023 report provides an analysis of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in Regional New South Wales (NSW). The report highlights the performance of these markets, driven by population growth, economic conditions, and housing supply dynamics. It also outlines future forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, and interest rates, which are expected to influence the housing market over the next few years.

Key Drivers

Population Growth

• 2022 Population: Estimated at 2.9 million persons.
• Annual Population Change: 0.9% in 2022.
• Projected Growth (2041): 0.6% per annum.
• Inner vs. Outer Regional Growth:
  • Inner regional areas: 0.9% annual population change.
  • Outer regional areas: 0.2% annual population change.

Economic Growth

• 2022 Economic Growth: 2.0%.
• 2023 Forecast: 0.3% (Oxford Economics).
• 2024 Forecast: 0.7%.
• 2025 Forecast: 2.6%.
• Average Forecast (2023–2025): 1.2%.

Unemployment Rate

• March 2023 Unemployment Rate: 3.0%.
• Trend: 24 bps higher than the previous quarter.

Interest Rates

• Official Cash Rate (June 2023): Raised 50 bps to 4.10%.
• Forecast for 2024: Expected to decrease to an average of 3.94%.
• Mortgage Lending Rates (March 2023):
  • Owner occupiers: 3-year fixed at 6.27%, standard variable at 8.02%.
  • Investors: 3-year fixed at 6.32%, standard variable at 8.60%.

Housing Market Performance

Sales

• Annual Sales Volume (Year ending March 2023): 30,969 houses, down 20.6% compared to the previous year.
• Average Days on Market (March 2023): 66 days, up from 56 days one quarter earlier.

Prices

• Median House Value (March 2023): $881,500.
• Year-on-Year Price Growth: 3.0%.
• Last Quarter Price Change: Down 2.9%.
• Forecast (2023–2025): Expected to decline by an average of 4% over the next three years.

Rental Market Trends

Vacancy Rates

• Total Residential Rental Vacancy (March 2023): 1.6%.
• Vacancy Trend: 1.8% last quarter, 1.1% one year ago.

Rent Growth

• Annual Median Weekly Rental Growth (March 2023): 6.5%.
• Quarterly Rent Increase: 0.9% for houses.
• Forecast (2023–2025): Rental market is expected to grow by an average of 3% annually.

Gross Rental Yields

• Gross Rental Yield (March 2023): 3.78%, down 1 bp from the previous quarter.
• Median Weekly Rent (March 2023): $575.

Future Outlook

Housing Supply

• Building Approvals (March 2023): 8,126 residential dwellings, down 35.1% compared to one quarter ago.
• New Household Loan Commitments (March 2023): Decreased by 2.2%, higher than the previous quarter's -10.8% decline.
• First Home Buyer Commitments (March 2023): Increased by 47.6%, compared to 36.5% a year earlier. First home buyers accounted for 17.2% of all owner occupier loans.

Market Forecast

• Price Performance Forecast (2023–2025): Expected to decline by an average of 4%.
• Rental Market Forecast (2023–2025): Expected to grow by an average of 3% annually.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
  Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61 2 9036 6659

• Residential Site Sales: Grant Bulpett
  Email: grant.bulpett@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61 2 9761 1872

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edwardsen
  Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61 2 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil
  Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61 2 9036 6699

• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
  Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61 2 9036 6700

• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
  Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61 2 9036 6662