2023-07-18-莱坊-Regional_Queensland_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_552kb

Regional Queensland Residential Insight Summary - Q2 2023

Core Content

Knight Frank's quarterly analysis provides an overview of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in Regional Queensland. The report highlights key trends, drivers, and forecasts for the housing market in the region, focusing on population growth, economic performance, building activity, and the lending environment.

Key Drivers

Population Growth

• Regional Queensland's population was estimated at 2.7 million in 2022.
• Annual population change in 2022 was 1.9%.
• Projected population growth to 2041 is 1.1% per annum.
• Inner regional areas had a 2.1% annual population change in 2022.
• Outer regional areas recorded 1.5% annual population change in 2022.

Economic Growth

• Queensland's economic growth in 2022 was 3.1%.
• Forecast for 2023 is 2.4% (Oxford Economics).
• Regional Queensland unemployment rate was 4.1% in March 2023, trending 50 bps above the previous quarter.

Future Pipeline

• Building approvals in Queensland for the quarter ending March 2023 totaled 9,135 residential dwellings.
• Dwelling approvals increased by 8.7% compared to the previous quarter.

Lending Environment

• New household loan commitments in Queensland decreased by 4.2% in the March 2023 quarter, up from -11.1% in the previous quarter.
• First home buyer lending commitments increased by 26.6% in March 2023, compared to 23.9% a year earlier.
• First home buyers represented 18.6% of all Queensland owner occupier loans in March 2023.
• The official cash rate was raised to 4.10% by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) over the past three months.
• Oxford Economics forecasts the cash rate to be reduced to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.
• Average mortgage lending rates for owner occupiers increased by 3 bps to 6.27% for a 3-year fixed term loan and 50 bps to 8.02% for a standard variable loan.
• For investors, the 3-year fixed term loan rate decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%, while the standard variable loan rate increased by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Market Performance

Sales & Price Performance

• Annual sales volume for houses in Regional Queensland trended down by 14.6%, with 55,790 houses sold.
• The average days on market for a house in the March 2023 quarter was 76 days, compared to 81 days one quarter earlier.
• Capital values for houses rose by 11.3% over the year to March 2023, with a median house value of $657,500.

Rental Market

• Total residential rental vacancy in Regional Queensland was 1.2% at the end of March 2023, up from 0.8% last quarter and 0.5% one year ago.
• Gross rental yields for houses increased by 7 bps to 5.08% in the March 2023 quarter.
• Rents increased by 2.9% for houses and trended up by 15.4% over the past year, with median rents at $525 per week.

Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (2021–2025)

Regional Queensland Residential Forecast (2021–2025)

Key Points

• Regional Queensland has seen strong annual rental growth for houses, despite lower population growth.
• The rental market is characterized by low vacancy rates and positive price performance.
• The lending environment shows a slight improvement in first home buyer commitments, though overall household loan commitments have decreased.
• The cash rate target is expected to decline by the end of 2024, which may impact mortgage rates.
• Median house value and median weekly rents have shown consistent growth over the past year.

Main Viewpoints

• The housing market in Regional Queensland remains strong, with positive price performance and low vacancy rates.
• While population growth has slowed, the rental market is still experiencing strong growth, indicating demand remains high.
• Economic growth and unemployment rates are expected to decline in the coming years, which may have an impact on the market.
• The lending environment is showing some recovery, particularly for first home buyers, which could support market activity.

Key Information

• Median house value in Regional Queensland at the end of March 2023: $657,500
• Annual median weekly rental growth: 15.4%
• Total residential rental vacancy: 1.2%
• Average mortgage lending rates:
  • Owner occupiers: 6.27% (3-year fixed), 8.02% (variable)
  • Investors: 6.32% (3-year fixed), 8.60% (variable)
• Official cash rate in June 2023: 4.10%
• Forecasted cash rate by end of 2024: 3.94%

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski, +61290366659, michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Site Sales: Blake Goddard, +61732468848, blake.goddard@au.knightfrank.com
• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen, +61290366845, sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential: Erin van Tuil, +61290366699, erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes, +61290366700, luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter, +61290366662, al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com