2023-10-01-莱坊-Gold_Coast_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_4页_821kb

Gold Coast Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q3 2023 report provides an analysis of the residential market trends on the Gold Coast, including sales, prices, rental performance, and new construction data. The report highlights a growing population, rising property prices, and continued strong rental demand, despite a decline in sales volume.

Key Market Trends

Sales Performance

• Annual Sales Volume: Declined by 27% in June 2023, with 14,762 transactions.
• House Sales: Annual sales volume for houses dropped by 24.7% to 8,065 units sold.
• Apartment Sales: Annual sales volume for apartments fell by 28.9% to 6,697 units.
• Days on Market:
  • Residential properties: 60 days in June 2023 (down slightly from 61 days one quarter ago).
  • Houses: 60 days in June 2023 (down from 62 days one quarter ago).
  • Apartments: 60 days in June 2023, consistent with the previous quarter.

Price Performance

• Residential Median Value: Rose to $819,500 in June 2023, up 2.5% year-on-year.
• Houses Median Value: Remained unchanged at $950,000 year-on-year, but increased 2.8% in the last quarter.
• Apartments Median Value: Increased by 8.1% year-on-year to $637,500, up 2.8% in the last quarter.
• Price Forecast:
  • 2023: 3% increase
  • 2024: 4% increase
  • 2025: 6% increase

Rental Performance

• Residential Vacancy Rate: Remained at 1.2% in June 2023, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter and 0.5% one year ago.
• Gross Rental Yields:
  • Residential: Increased by 4 bps to 4.89% in Q2 2023.
  • Houses: Stabilised at 4.60%.
  • Apartments: Rose by 10 bps to 5.30%.
• Rental Growth:
  • Residential: Rose 2.8% in the quarter, up 10.6% year-on-year.
  • Houses: Increased 1.9% in the quarter, up 6.8% year-on-year to a weekly median rent of $790.
  • Apartments: Increased 4.0% in the quarter, up 18.2% year-on-year to a weekly median rent of $650.
• Rental Forecast:
  • 2023: 9% increase
  • 2024: 5% increase
  • 2025: 3% increase

New Builds

• Building Approvals:
  • Houses: 306 units approved, down 3.2% compared to the previous quarter.
  • Apartments: 973 units approved, down 39.2% compared to the previous quarter.

Economic and Policy Context

• Queensland Economic Growth:
  • 2022: 3.2%
  • 2025 Forecast: 3.3%
• Gold Coast Unemployment Rate:
  • March 2023: 4.0%
  • 2025 Forecast: 4.3%
• Official Cash Rate Target:
  • September 2023: 3.8%
  • 2025 Forecast: 3.4%
• New Household Loan Commitments:
  • June 2023: Up 6.9%, compared to a -4.0% decline in the previous quarter.

Population Growth

• Gold Coast Population:
  • 2022: Increased by 2.2% to an estimated 647,750 persons.
  • 2025 Forecast: Projected to grow by 2.1%.

Forecast Summary

Key Drivers of Market Trends

• Economic Growth: Projected to slow to 1.5% in 2023, with a slight rebound in 2024 and stabilisation in 2025.
• Unemployment Rate: Expected to rise to 4.3% in 2025.
• Cash Rate Target: Likely to decrease to 3.4% by 2025.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski

  • Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Residential, Gold Coast: Alison Hedger

  • Email: alison.hedger@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +614 2078 8471

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen

  • Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil

  • Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6699

• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes

  • Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6700

• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter

  • Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 662