2023-10-01-莱坊-Regional_Tasmania_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_650kb

Regional Tasmania Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a quarterly analysis of the residential housing market in Regional Tasmania, focusing on sales, rental trends, economic conditions, and the lending environment. It highlights the performance and future outlook of the market, supported by data from Knight Frank and Oxford Economics.

Key Market Trends

Sales Performance

• Sales Volume: Declined by 15.7% annually in the year ending June 2023, with 1,503 houses sold.
• Days on Market: Increased by 11 days to 60 days in the June 2023 quarter, though still lower than the national average.
• Median House Value: Stood at $518,000 at the end of June 2023, with a 1.4% annual increase.

Rental Market

• Vacancy Rate: Increased to 1.8% in June 2023, up 17 bps from the previous quarter.
• Weekly Rents: Continued to rise, with a 10.0% annual increase.
• Median Weekly Rent: Reached $440 per week.
• Gross Rental Yields: Improved by 2 bps to 4.70% in the June 2023 quarter.

Economic and Lending Environment

Economic Growth

• 2022 Growth: Estimated at 3.4%.
• 2025 Forecast: Projected to grow at 2.2% by Oxford Economics.
• Unemployment Rate: Stood at 3.3% in June 2023, down by 139 bps from the previous quarter.

Lending Commitments

• Household Loan Commitments: Increased by 3.4% in the June 2023 quarter, compared to a -3.8% drop in Q1.
• First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to owner occupier first home buyers fell by 12.7% in June 2023, down from 2.8% in the same quarter the previous year.
• First Home Buyers Share: Represented 17.5% of all owner occupier loans in Tasmania in June 2023.

Interest Rates

• Official Cash Rate: Remained at 4.10% as of 5 September 2023, with a forecast to decrease to an average of 3.38% by the end of 2025.
• Mortgage Rates:
  • Owner Occupiers:
    • 3-year fixed rate increased by 5 bps to 6.32%.
    • Standard variable rate rose by 50 bps to 8.52%.
  • Investors:
    • 3-year fixed rate increased by 18 bps to 6.50%.
    • Standard variable rate rose by 50 bps to 9.10%.

New Builds

• Building Approvals: Totalled 42 residential dwellings in the quarter to June 2023, down by 93.7% compared to the previous quarter.

Population Trends

• Regional Tasmania Population: Estimated at 318,750 persons in 2022.
• Annual Population Change: 0.6% in 2022, with a projected 0% annual growth by 2041.
• Inner vs. Outer Regional Growth:
  • Inner regional areas: 0.5% annual change.
  • Outer regional areas: 0.8% annual change.

Forecast Highlights

Regional Tasmania Residential Forecast (2021–2025)

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025 AVE
Economic Growth	7.2%	3.4%	-1.1%	0.7%	2.2%	0.6%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	4.1%	3.4%	3.8%
Price Performance	32%	17%	3%	0%	2%	2%
Rental Market	14%	12%	7%	4%	3%	5%

Key Insights

• Sales and Prices: Sales volume has declined, but median house values have increased slightly, indicating a resilient market.
• Rental Growth: Despite rising vacancy rates, rents have continued to grow, suggesting strong demand.
• Interest Rates: Lending rates have increased, impacting affordability, especially for first home buyers.
• Economic Outlook: Economic growth is expected to slow in 2023 but pick up in 2024 and 2025.
• Population Growth: Regional Tasmania is projected to experience minimal population growth, with a focus on inner regional areas.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski – +612 9036 6659 – michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Site Sales: Mathew Chugg – +613 6220 6999 – mathew.chugg@au.knightfrank.com
• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen – +612 9036 6845 – sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential: Erin van Tuil – +612 9036 6699 – erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes – +612 9036 700 – luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter – +612 9036 62 – al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com