2023-07-18-莱坊-Hobart_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_4页_731kb

Hobart Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the residential market in Greater Hobart for Q2 2023, covering sales and price performance, rental market trends, future pipeline, population growth, economic conditions, and the lending environment.

Main Market Trends

Sales & Price Performance

• Residential Sales Volume:
  • March 2023: 777 homes sold, a 19% decline from the previous quarter.
  • Annual Sales Volume: 20% lower than the same period in 2022.
• Days on Market:
  • March 2023: 67 days on average for residential homes.
  • One Quarter Ago: 45 days on average.
• Median Value:
  • Residential Homes: $671,000 at the end of March 2023, down 8.7% year-on-year and 2.1% in the past quarter.
  • Houses: $689,000, down 9.9% year-on-year and 3.0% in the past quarter.
  • Apartments: $565,000, up 1.3% year-on-year and 4.8% in the past quarter.

Rental Market

• Residential Vacancy Rate: 1.3% at the end of March 2023 (REIA).
• Gross Rental Yields:
  • Houses: Increased by 16 bps to 4.24% in Q1 2023.
  • Apartments: Increased by 15 bps to 4.19% in the March 2023 quarter.
• Rental Growth:
  • Houses: Weekly median rent remained stable in Q1 2023, but increased 4.8% annually to $550.
  • Apartments: Weekly median rent increased 6.7% annually to $480.

Future Pipeline

• Building Approvals:
  • March 2023: 247 houses and 56 apartments approved.
  • Trend:
    • House approvals down 30.8% from the previous quarter.
    • Apartment approvals up 80.6% from the previous quarter.

Population & Economy

• Population:
  • 2022 Estimate: 252,750 persons.
  • Annual Growth: 6.0% in 2022.
  • Projected Growth (2023–2041): 0.9% per annum (ABS).
• Economic Growth:
  • 2022: 3.5%.
  • 2023 Forecast: -0.4% (Oxford Economics).
• Unemployment Rate:
  • March 2023: 3.3%, 133 bps below the previous quarter.

Lending Environment

• Household Loan Commitments:
  • March 2023: Decreased by 3.9% compared to the previous quarter.
  • Previous Quarter: Decreased by 13.6%.
• First Home Buyer Loans:
  • March 2023: Increased by 17.6%, compared to 10.0% a year earlier.
  • Percentage of Owner Occupier Loans: 18.2%.
• Mortgage Rates:
  • Owner Occupiers:
    • 3-Year Fixed: Increased by 3 bps to 6.27%.
    • Standard Variable: Increased by 50 bps to 8.02%.
  • Investors:
    • 3-Year Fixed: Decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%.
    • Standard Variable: Increased by 50 bps to 8.60%.
• Cash Rate Target:
  • As of 6 June 2023: 4.10% (RBA).
  • Forecast: To be reduced to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024 (Oxford Economics).

Residential Forecast (2021–2025)

Source: Oxford Economics (for economic growth and cash rate), Knight Frank Research (for price and rental performance).

Key Insights

• Price Correction: Greater Hobart is experiencing a significant property price correction, driven by rising mortgage rates and reduced buyer confidence.
• Rental Stability: Despite price declines, rental yields have increased, and rents have remained relatively stable or risen slightly.
• Market Dynamics: Sales volumes have declined, and days on market have increased, indicating a buyer-driven market.
• Economic Outlook: The Tasmanian economy is expected to slow in 2023 but may recover slightly by 2024.
• Lending Trends: First home buyer loans are increasing, but overall household lending commitments are declining, suggesting cautious market sentiment.
• Future Development: Apartment approvals are rising, while house approvals are falling, signaling a shift in market demand.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski

  • Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Residential, Tasmania: Mathew Chugg

  • Email: mathew.chugg@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +613 6220 6999

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen

  • Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil

  • Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6699

• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes

  • Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 700

• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter

  • Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 62