2024-01-24-莱坊-Regional_Tasmania_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_3页_667kb

Report: Knight Frank Residential Insight Q4 2023 for Regional Tasmania

• House Price Growth stabilised, with an average price of $518,000 recorded in Q3 2023, representing a 2.8% year-on-year decrease. Forecast growth for 2023 is 1%, and 2% for 2024, with a 3% increase projected for 2025.

• Sales Performance showed a decline, with the average days on market increasing to 66 days in September 2023, up from 60 days three months earlier. Annual sales volume dropped 13.5%, and prices saw diminishing annual growth.

• Rental Market indicated a vacancy rate of 1.7% in September 2023, up 23 basis points from the previous year. Gross rental yields were 4.75%, with rents falling 1.1% quarter-on-quarter but rising 6.1% year-on-year. Forecast rental increases are 5% by the end of 2023, 3% in 2024, and 2% in 2025.

• Economic Context: Tasmanian GDP grew 3.3% in 2022, with an employment rate of 4.35% in September 2023, and an official cash rate target of 4.35%. Forecast growth for 2025 is 1.9%, while unemployment is expected to remain around 4.3%.

• Population and Lending: Population growth was slow, with an annual decrease in lending commitments for first-time home buyers by 13.5%. New household loan commitments were down, and population change was minimal at 0.4% for inner regional areas.

• Forecasts: Overall, economic indicators suggest stable trends, but with projected declines in borrowing and slight economic growth in 2024 and 2025. Economic growth is forecast at 0.4% in 2024, while rental and price performance are expected to align with regional trends.