20260104-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_36页_3mb

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

• Industry News: Reports on export data and policy changes affecting the natural rubber market.
• Market Trends: Analysis of futures prices, basis spreads, calendar spreads, substitute prices, and market liquidity.
• Supply & Demand Data: Overview of production, exports, and inventory dynamics across key regions.

Main Points

Industry News

1. Vietnam's Exports:

   • In Jan-Nov 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased by 11% YoY to 643,000 tons.
   • Mixture rubber exports fell by 2% YoY to 999,000 tons.
   • Exports to China increased slightly for natural rubber (6%) and decreased for mixture rubber (-2%).
   • Overall, combined exports to China totaled 1.23 million tons, a 0.6% YoY decline.

2. 2026 Auto Trade-in Subsidy Program:

   • Guidelines were released on December 31, 2025, expanding the scope of support.
   • Subsidy eligibility for old vehicles:
     • Gasoline-powered passenger vehicles: registered on or before June 30, 2013.
     • Diesel and other fuel-powered passenger vehicles: registered on or before June 30, 2015.
     • New energy passenger vehicles: registered on or before December 31, 2019.
   • Maximum subsidy capped at 20,000 yuan for scrappage and renewal, and 15,000 yuan for trade-in replacement.
   • Subsidies disbursed within 30 working days for eligible applications.

3. Thailand's Exports:

   • Total natural rubber and mixture rubber exports increased by 4.6% YoY to 4 million tons in Jan-Nov 2025.
   • Exports to China rose by 24% YoY to 2.518 million tons.
   • Standard rubber exports fell by 18% YoY, while smoked sheet rubber increased by 24% YoY and latex by 8% YoY.

Market Trends

• Futures Prices:

  • Domestic rubber futures fell this week, while overseas contracts rose.
  • RU 2605 closed at 15,605.00 yuan/ton, down 1.11% from last week.
  • NR 2605 closed at 12,725.00 yuan/ton, down 0.74%.
  • SICOM TSR20 2605 closed at 180.80 US cents/kg, up 0.17%.
  • TOCOM RSS3 2605 closed at 342.20 JPY/kg, up 0.80%.

• Basis & Calendar Spread:

  • Basis: SCRWF – RU 05 at -355.00 yuan/ton, up 26.04% from previous period, up 59.20% YoY.
  • Calendar Spread: RU05 - 09 at 60.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00% from previous period, up 137.50% YoY.

• Other Spreads:

  • Inter-commodity/inter-market spreads for RU-NR, RU-BR, NR-SGX TSR20, and RU-JPX RSS3 narrowed.
  • Spot-futures price spread widened due to stronger declines in futures prices.

• Substitute Prices:

  • Prices of butadiene rubber and SBR rose, providing support to short-term market prices.
  • BR-RU05 at -4,105.00 yuan/ton, up 8.37% from previous period.
  • SBR-RU05 at -3,955.00 yuan/ton, up 7.59% from previous period.

• Market Liquidity:

  • RU虚实盘比 (Open Interest/Warehouse Receipts) at 20.17, down 16.46% from previous period.
  • NR虚实盘比 at 19.94, down 7.30% from previous period.
  • RU沉淀资金 (Bilateral Margin) at 57.09, down 11.80% from previous period.
  • NR沉淀资金 at 26.38, down 8.27% from previous period.

Key Information

Supply & Demand Analysis

• Thailand Weather:

  • Southern Thailand's rainy season is ending, with declining rainfall.
  • Northeast Thailand's rainfall is higher than previous years.
  • Temperature and precipitation data show regional variations in production conditions.

• Thailand's Exports:

  • Natural rubber exports in November 2025 dropped, while latex exports increased.
  • Exports to China saw an increase in latex, RSS, and TSR, but a decline in mixture rubber.

• China's Imports:

  • Natural rubber imports in November 2025 increased by 25.98% MoM and 14.76% YoY to 643,600 tons.
  • Imports of Thai mixture rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber saw significant MoM growth.

• Tire Capacity Utilization:

  • TBR capacity utilization rate at 59.31% on January 2, 2026, down 3.86% from previous week.
  • PCR capacity utilization rate at 68.63%, down 2.46% from previous week.
  • TBR inventory at 43.78 days, up 4.46% from previous week.
  • PCR inventory at 46.86 days, up 0.82% from previous week.

• Tire Export & Vehicle Sales:

  • Heavy-duty truck sales increased by 2.56% MoM.
  • Passenger car sales grew by 6.64% MoM, but year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates declined.
  • TBR exports at 41.85 (10kT), up 5.00% MoM.
  • PCR exports at 23.71 (10kT), up 4.99% MoM.

• Highway Turnover:

  • Highway cargo turnover volume increased by 3.33% MoM to 7,120.68 (100 million ton-km).
  • Highway passenger turnover volume decreased by 4.32% MoM to 421.00 (100 million passenger-km).

Summary

The natural rubber market in the week of 2026/01/04 reflects a mix of declining exports from Vietnam and increased exports from Thailand, with significant growth in exports to China. Domestic rubber futures prices fell, while overseas contracts rose, indicating a shift in market sentiment. The basis and calendar spreads showed positive changes, with the basis spread widening and the calendar spread increasing sharply. The price spreads of substitutes like BR and SBR narrowed, suggesting tighter market conditions. Thailand's weather patterns and production data indicate a gradual end to the rainy season, with regional variations affecting supply. The 2026 auto trade-in subsidy program expanded support, with clear registration criteria and capped subsidies. China's natural rubber imports increased significantly, driven by demand for Thai and Cote d'Ivoire products. Tire production capacity utilization and exports showed mixed trends, with TBR utilization and inventory rising slightly. Highway freight turnover increased, while passenger turnover declined, affecting overall demand dynamics.