20251214-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_36页_3mb

报告摘要

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the natural rubber market, focusing on industry news, market trends, and supply and demand dynamics. It includes data on production, exports, prices, and inventory levels from key producing and consuming regions, as well as insights into the impact of weather, geopolitical tensions, and economic factors on the market.

Main Industry News

China Auto Production and Sales
- In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, showing a MoM increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a YoY increase of 2.8% and 3.4%.
- Auto exports hit 728,000 units in November, marking a record high.
- NEV production and sales both neared 15 million units in January-November, with a YoY growth of over 30%.
- NEV exports reached 2.315 million units, doubling from the same period last year.
Malaysia's Natural Rubber Output and Exports
- Natural rubber exports in October 2025 increased by 9.9% YoY to 52,932 tonnes and 57.8% MoM.
- China was the largest destination for Malaysia's NR exports, accounting for 55.3%.
- Total NR output in October was 29,673 tonnes, down 22.7% YoY but up 11.4% MoM.
- Smallholder plantations contributed 86.5% of the total output.
- NR inventories stood at 145,438 tonnes, down 8.9% MoM but up 8% YoY.
- Domestic consumption increased 0.7% YoY to 24,275 tonnes, but edged down 1.6% MoM.
- The latex glove industry is the largest consumer, accounting for 69.6% of total consumption.
European Electric Vehicle Market
- Despite initial challenges, the European EV market has shown improvement.
- Automakers have adjusted their strategies, focusing on hybrid vehicles as a transitional technology while continuing to invest in EV development.

Market Trends

Futures Prices

Rubber futures showed strong gains both domestically and overseas, with NR experiencing the largest increase.
Key prices:
- RU 2605: 15230.00 yuan/ton (+1.10% MoM)
- NR 2605: 12345.00 yuan/ton (+2.45% MoM)
- SICOM TSR20 2605: 173.00 US cents/kg (+1.23% MoM)
- TOCOM RSS3 2605: 330.80 JPY/kg (+1.66% MoM)

Basis & Calendar Spread

Basis (SCRWF – RU 05): -330.00 yuan/ton (+9.59% MoM)
Calendar Spread (RU05 - 09): 25.00 yuan/ton (+225.00% MoM)

Other Spreads

RU-NR: Narrowed by 4.31% MoM
RU-BR: Narrowed by 1.66% MoM
NR-SGX TSR20: Widened by 403.94% MoM
RU-JPX RSS3: Widened by 14.27% MoM
Spot - Future:
- STR Mix-RU05: -730.00 yuan/ton (-6.57% MoM)
- SMR Mix-RU05: -780.00 yuan/ton (-6.12% MoM)
- 3L-RU05: -30.00 yuan/ton (-135.29% MoM)
- Africa 10#-RU05: -2903.67 yuan/ton (+0.95% MoM)

Light and Dark Colored Rubber

SCRWF - STR MIX: Widened by 25.00% MoM
SVR 3L - STR MIX: Narrowed by 9.09% MoM

Supply and Demand Data

Supply: Thailand Weather

Southern Thailand entered the rainy season, with higher rainfall than the same period last year.
Northeastern Thailand's rainy season ended, but temperatures were lower YoY.

Supply: Raw Material Prices

Thai latex and cup lump prices showed a narrowing spread.
Hainan concentrated latex factories saw a widening spread with SCRWF.
Yunnan rubber tapping has largely halted, affecting delivery profits.

Supply: Price Spreads

Thai Latex - Cup Lump: 5.79 THB/kg (+4.31% MoM)
Hainan Concentrated Latex - SCRWF: 1400.00 yuan/ton (+16.67% MoM)
Yunnan Concentrated Latex - SCRWF: 300.00 yuan/ton (+303.50% MoM)

Supply: Delivery Profit

Hainan SCRWF: -1342.00 yuan/ton (+33.50% MoM)
Yunnan SCRWF: -498.00 yuan/ton (no change MoM)

Supply: Thailand's Exports

Total exports in October: 410.38 10kT (+31.68% YoY)
STR: 115.69 10kT (+17.09% MoM)
STR MIX: 173.34 10kT (+26.88% MoM)
Latex: 58.01 10kT (+17.15% MoM)

Supply: Thailand's Exports to China

Total exports to China: 263.93 10kT (+31.68% YoY)
STR: 48.32 10kT (+85.44% MoM)
STR MIX: 172.94 10kT (+27.25% MoM)
Latex: 21.39 10kT (+58.08% YoY)

Supply: Indonesia's Exports

Total exports in October: 111.41 10kT (-29.01% MoM)
SIR: 94.13 10kT (-32.32% MoM)
SIR MIX: 12.99 10kT (+7.51% MoM)
Total exports to China: 35.44 10kT (-11.97% MoM)

Supply: Vietnam's Exports

Total exports in October: 184.01 10kT (+7.58% MoM)
Latex: 37.21 10kT (+32.80% MoM)
SVR: 29.82 10kT (+15.94% MoM)
Total exports to China: 147.01 10kT (+13.68% MoM)

Supply: Côte d'Ivoire's Exports

Total exports in November: 142.19 10kT (-10.60% MoM)
TSR: 139.43 10kT (-10.32% MoM)
Total exports to China: 50.16 10kT (-14.99% MoM)

Supply: China's Imports

Total imports in October: 510,800 metric tons (-14.27% MoM, -0.89% YoY)
STR MIX: 11.11 10kT (-21.46% MoM, -2.33% YoY)
SIR MIX: 9.18 10kT (-18.71% MoM, -18.94% YoY)
SVR: 13000.00 yuan/ton (-16.13% MoM, -14.20% YoY)
TSR: 4.19 10kT (+36.28% MoM, +18.18% YoY)

Demand Trends

Tire Capacity Utilization Rate & Inventory

TBR capacity utilization rate: 64.55% (+0.86% WoW)
PCR capacity utilization rate: 70.14% (+2.65% WoW)
TBR inventory: 40.58 days (+2.71% WoW)
PCR inventory: 45.51 days (+1.25% WoW)
YoY changes:
- TBR capacity utilization: +10.38%
- PCR capacity utilization: -10.80%
- TBR inventory: -3.29%
- PCR inventory: +14.03%

Tire Exports & Vehicle Sales

TBR exports in October: edged down slightly MoM.
PCR exports in October: continued to drop significantly MoM.
Passenger car sales in November: maintained growth momentum but growth rates declined YoY and MoM.
Heavy-duty truck sales in October: rose MoM but growth rate edged down slightly.

Key Information

China's auto industry continues to grow, with NEVs leading the way.
Malaysia's NR exports have surged, with China as the largest buyer.
Thailand's NR production is affected by weather conditions and geopolitical tensions.
Market sentiment has been influenced by speculative activities and supply-demand dynamics.
Price spreads between different rubber types and markets have fluctuated, with some narrowing and others widening.
Delivery profits have been impacted by production halts in Yunnan and weather conditions in Thailand.
China's NR imports have seen mixed performance, with certain types showing significant growth.

Summary of Key Trends

Futures prices have increased, especially for natural rubber.
Exports from key producers like Thailand and Vietnam have shown growth.
Domestic consumption in Malaysia remains dominated by the latex glove industry.
Weather and geopolitical tensions have had a notable impact on supply and pricing.
Demand for tires is recovering, with capacity utilization rates increasing.
Downstream demand remains cautious, leading to weak spot market activity.
Inventory levels in China are mixed, with some types showing an uptick.