20250615-国泰期货-Energy_Chemical__Industry_Weekly__Natural_Rubber_29页_2mb

Guotai Junan Futures Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Special Report Summary

Market Overview

• China Customs Data: Natural and synthetic rubber imports in May 2025 reached 607,000 tons (+25.2% YoY), with cumulative imports from January-May reaching 3.476 million tons (+23.5% YoY).
• Automotive Sector: China's auto production and sales grew 12.7% and 10.9% YoY in January-May, supporting rubber demand.
• Myanmar Rubber Exports: Myanmar plans to export 350,000-380,000 tons of rubber in FY 2025-26.
• Malaysia Rubber Market: Natural rubber exports in April 2025 saw a 24.9% YoY drop. Production fell YOY/MoM. Latex gloves remain the largest consumer.
• U.S. Tire Imports: Slightly increased 6.1% YoY in Jan-Apr.

Futures Market

• Prices: Domestic market rebounded, but external markets diverged (SGX TSR20 rose, JPX RSS3 declined).
• Basis & Spreads: Domestic spot and basis improved. Calendar spread RU09-RU01 widened. Other spreads (RU-NR, industrial usage) generally increased or narrowed.

Supply

• Weather: Thailand has normal to slightly cooler/smoother weather. Hainan/Yunnan in rainy season.
• Raw Material Prices: Frequent rainfall disruptions led to overall raw material supply shortage and high procurement prices, pressing processing profits.
• Import: China's natural rubber (including mixed/compound) imports in April fell 12% MoM but jumped 42% YoY.

Demand

• Tire Market: Capacity utilization improved, especially PCR (69.98% as of June 08, 2025). Inflation reduced TBR inventory, PCR inventory increased.
• Vehicle Sales: Auto sales in May showed stability/increase (passenger cars) but weakened heavy truck sales MoM.

Trading Advice

• Expect higher volatility. Inventory declines support continuation. Energy/chem market may benefit from US-China/Israel-Iran conflict oil price rises.
• Current inventory levels (e.g., Chinese social inventory down 0.4%) support prices but limited overall decline. Truck scrappage policy rollout may boost heavy truck demand. Seasonal rainfall patterns and weather forecasts (e.g., Typhoon Wutip) impact supply/recovery.
• Trends based on data till mid-May with June developments ongoing.

Disclaimer

The report is for professional investors, provides analytical support but does not constitute investment advice. Prices fluctuate; past performance is not indicative of future results. The Company advises users to manage their investment risks carefully.