20251228-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_36页_3mb

报告摘要

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

This weekly report provides an analysis of the natural rubber market, focusing on industry news, market trends, supply and demand dynamics, and substitute prices. It includes data from Thailand, China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Côte d'Ivoire, highlighting export and import figures, weather conditions, and price movements.

Main Points

Industry News

Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports
- Total natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) exports in Jan-Nov 2025 decreased by 7% YoY to 2.419 million tons.
- Standard rubber exports decreased by 18% YoY to 1.338 million tons.
- Smoked sheet rubber exports increased by 24% YoY to 0.392 million tons.
- Latex exports increased by 8% YoY to 0.673 million tons.
- Total exports to China increased by 14% YoY to 0.945 million tons.
- Mixture rubber exports increased by 29% YoY to 1.581 million tons.
- Total exports to China for mixture rubber increased by 32% YoY to 1.573 million tons.
- Combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber to China increased by 24% YoY to 2.518 million tons.
ANRPC Report on Global Natural Rubber
- Global natural rubber output in November 2025 fell by 2.6% YoY to 1.474 million tons, and by 1.5% MoM.
- Global natural rubber consumption in November 2025 fell by 1.4% YoY to 1.248 million tons, and by 0.9% MoM.
- Cumulative global natural rubber output for Jan-Nov 2025 increased by 2% YoY to 13.375 million tons.
- Cumulative global natural rubber consumption for Jan-Nov 2025 decreased by 1.7% YoY to 13.932 million tons.
- Full-year 2025 forecast: global natural rubber output up by 1.3% YoY to 14.892 million tons.
- Consumption forecast for 2025: up by 0.8% YoY to 15.565 million tons.
- Country-specific forecasts:
  - Thailand: +1.2%
  - Indonesia: -4.3%
  - China: +6%
  - India: +5.6%
  - Vietnam: -1.3%
  - Malaysia: -4.2%
  - Cambodia: +5.6%
  - Myanmar: +5.3%
  - Other countries: +3.5%
- Consumption breakdown:
  - China: +2.5%
  - India: +3.4%
  - Thailand: +6.1%
  - Indonesia: -19.3%
  - Malaysia: +2.6%
  - Vietnam: +1.5%
  - Sri Lanka: +6.7%
  - Cambodia: +110.3%
  - Other countries: -3.5%
EU Passenger Car Sales
- EU passenger car sales in November 2025 increased by 2.1% YoY to 887,491 units.
- Cumulative sales in Jan-Nov 2025 increased by 1.4% YoY to 9.86 million units.
- BEVs market share reached 16.9%.
- Hybrid vehicles (including PHEVs) accounted for 34.6% of the market.
- Gasoline and diesel vehicles combined market share dropped to 36.1% from 45.8% in the same period of 2024.

Market Trends

Futures Prices
- Rubber futures in both domestic and overseas markets surged sharply.
- SGX TSR 20 rubber led the gains.
- Prices for RU 2605, NR 2605, SICOM TSR20 2605, and TOCOM RSS3 2605 increased by 3.88%, 3.47%, 3.91%, and 2.35% respectively compared to last week.
- YoY changes:
  - RU 2605: +4.04%
  - NR 2605: -3.72%
  - SICOM TSR20 2605: -77.38%
  - TOCOM RSS3 2605: +49.06%
Basis & Calendar Spread
- Basis: SCRWF – RU 05: -480.00 yuan/ton.
- Calendar Spread: RU05 - 09: +30.00 yuan/ton.
- Changes from previous period:
  - Basis: -41.18%
  - Calendar Spread: +50.00%
- YoY:
  - Basis: +40.37%
  - Calendar Spread: +117.65%
Other Spreads
- Price spreads for RU-NR, RU-BR, and RU-JPX RSS3 narrowed.
- Price spread for NR-SGX TSR20 widened.
- Changes from previous period:
  - RU05-NR05: +5.71%
  - RU05-BR05: +0.24%
  - NR05-TSR20 05: -11.13%
  - RU05-JPX RSS3 05: +62.68%
- YoY:
  - RU05-NR05: +4.04%
  - RU05-BR05: -3.72%
  - NR05-TSR20 05: -77.38%
  - RU05-JPX RSS3 05: +49.06%
Spot - Future Spreads
- Domestic natural rubber spot prices moved upward in tandem with the futures market.
- Downstream demand showed no improvement; most buyers remained cautious.
- Mixture rubber spot prices for deferred-month contracts traded at a premium over nearby-month contracts.
- Changes from previous period:
  - STR Mix-RU 05: -38.89%
  - SMR Mix-RU 05: -36.36%
  - 3L-RU 05: -2900.00%
  - Africa 10#-RU 05: -8.43%
- YoY:
  - STR Mix-RU 05: +5.21%
  - SMR Mix-RU 05: +6.67%
  - 3L-RU 05: -166.67%
  - Africa 10#-RU 05: +16.08%
Light and Dark Colored Rubber
- Price spread of SCRWF - Thai mixture rubber widened.
- Price spread of 3L - Thai mixture rubber narrowed.
- Changes from previous period:
  - SCRWF - STR Mix: +36.84%
  - SVR 3L - STR Mix: -1.37%
- YoY:
  - SCRWF - STR Mix: +108.00%
  - SVR 3L - STR Mix: -24.21%

Price of Substitutes

BR & SBR
- Domestic butadiene rubber supply remained elevated.
- Market participants expect butadiene destocking in January to affect production margins.
- Positive macroeconomic expectations for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January also supported prices.
- Butadiene rubber futures trended upward with fluctuations.
- Spot market negotiations gradually moved higher.
- Arbitrageurs increased positions for bull spreads.
- Changes from previous period:
  - BR: +4.15%
  - SBR: +2.22%
  - BR-RU05: -3.23%
  - SBR-RU05: -8.63%
- YoY:
  - BR: -15.67%
  - SBR: -23.08%
  - BR-RU05: -9.14%
  - SBR-RU05: -67.51%

Capital Trends

RU虚实盘比 (RU Spot-Futures Ratio)
- Open interest of RU increased by 11.74% from previous period.
- Bilateral margin for RU increased by 24.04%.
- YoY changes:
  - RU Spot-Futures Ratio: +37.73%
  - Bilateral Margin: -9.93%
NR虚实盘比 (NR Spot-Futures Ratio)
- Open interest of NR increased by 9.54% from previous period.
- Bilateral margin for NR increased by 10.59%.
- YoY changes:
  - NR Spot-Futures Ratio: +3.38%
  - Bilateral Margin: +3.70%
沉淀资金 (Capital Accumulation)
- RU: 100 million yuan.
- NR: 100 million yuan.

Supply & Demand Data

Supply

Thailand Weather
- Southern Thailand's rainy season is gradually ending, with declining rainfall.
- Northeastern Thailand's rainy season has ended, but temperatures remain lower than previous year.
- Rolling 30-day average temperature and precipitation data for production areas are available.
Raw Material Prices
- Hainan production region is suspending tapping, and factory procurement enthusiasm has cooled.
- Thai latex prices declined, while Hainan latex prices showed slight increase.
- Yunnan rubber tapping has come to a halt, affecting raw material prices.
Processing Profit
- Thai rubber processing margins have generally recovered.
- Changes from previous period:
  - Thai STR: +21.10%
  - Thai RSS: -7.36%
  - Thai Concentrated Latex: +71.23%
  - Hainan Concentrated Latex: +343.96%
- YoY changes:
  - Thai STR: -93.88%
  - Thai RSS: -68.76%
  - Thai Concentrated Latex: -69.26%
  - Hainan Concentrated Latex: -71.64%
Delivery Profit
- Hainan-produced SCRWF delivery profit increased.
- Yunnan-produced SCRWF delivery profit decreased.
- Changes from previous period:
  - Hainan SCRWF: +57.32%
  - Yunnan SCRWF: - (no data)
- YoY changes:
  - Hainan SCRWF: -185.18%
  - Yannan SCRWF: -212.67%

Exports

Thailand Exports
- Natural rubber exports in November decreased MoM.
- Latex exports increased slightly.
- RSS, TSR, and mixture rubber exports declined.
- Changes from previous period:
  - Latex: +12.50%
  - RSS: +1.51%
  - STR: +5.78%
  - STR MIX: -11.48%
- YoY changes:
  - Latex: +8.32%
  - RSS: +90.26%
  - STR: +92.93%
  - STR MIX: -14.24%
  - Total: +5.70%
Thailand Exports to China
- Natural rubber exports to China decreased MoM.
- Latex, RSS, and TSR exports increased MoM.
- STR MIX exports decreased MoM.
- Changes from previous period:
  - Latex: +12.50%
  - RSS: +1.51%
  - STR: +5.78%
  - STR MIX: -11.48%
- YoY changes:
  - Latex: +8.32%
  - RSS: +90.26%
  - STR: +92.93%
  - STR MIX: -14.24%
  - Total: +5.70%
Indonesia Exports
- Total natural rubber exports in October decreased YoY and MoM.
- Mixed rubber exports increased significantly MoM.
- Exports to China increased MoM.
- Changes from previous period:
  - SIR: -16.87%
  - SIR MIX: +47.13%
  - Total: -11.75%
  - SIR to China: -1.54%
  - SIR MIX to China: +60.57%
- YoY changes:
  - SIR: -17.27%
  - SIR MIX: +369.57%
  - Total: -7.22%
  - SIR to China: +35.16%
  - SIR MIX to China: +362.50%
  - Total to China: +82.12%
Vietnam Exports
- Natural rubber exports in October increased MoM.
- Latex exports showed substantial MoM growth.
- Exports to China saw a seasonal rebound.
- Changes from previous period:
  - Latex: +32.80%
  - SVR: +15.94%
  - SVR MIX: +0.29%
  - Total: +7.58%
  - Latex to China: +95.99%
  - SVR to China: +144.02%
  - SVR MIX to China: +0.48%
  - Total to China: +13.68%
- YoY changes:
  - Latex: +1.71%
  - SVR: -15.55%
  - SVR MIX: -17.95%
  - Total: -14.16%
Côte d'Ivoire Exports
- Rubber exports in November decreased MoM.
- Shipments to China decreased relatively.
- Changes from previous period:
  - TSR: -10.32%
  - Total: -10.60%
  - TSR to China: -14.99%
  - Total to China: -14.99%
- YoY changes:
  - TSR: +8.90%
  - Total: +0.35%
  - TSR to China: +22.56%
  - Total to China: +22.45%

Imports

China's Natural Rubber Imports
- In November, China's natural rubber (including mixture and compound rubber) imports reached 643,600 tons, up 25.98% MoM and 14.76% YoY.
- Thai mixture rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Côte d'Ivoire standard rubber imports increased significantly MoM.
- Vietnamese standard rubber and mixture rubber imports decreased YoY.
- Changes from previous period:
  - STR MIX: Thailand: +42.36%
  - STR: Thailand: +61.70%
  - SVR MIX: Vietnam: +1.92%
  - SVR: Vietnam: -16.17%
  - SIR MIX: Indonesia: +19.13%
  - SIR: Indonesia: +0.19%
  - TSR: Côte d'Ivoire: +53.37%
  - Total Imports: +25.98%
- YoY changes:
  - STR MIX: Thailand: +19.65%
  - STR: Thailand: +46.47%
  - SVR MIX: Vietnam: -25.29%
  - SVR: Vietnam: -17.33%
  - SIR MIX: Indonesia: +216.23%
  - SIR: Indonesia: +25.89%
  - TSR: Côte d'Ivoire: +85.41%
  - Total Imports: +14.76%

Demand

Tire Capacity Utilization Rate & Inventory
- Sample tire enterprises showed mixed capacity utilization rates.
- PCR tire production scheduling was steady, with some enterprises moderately increasing output.
- TBR tire maintenance dragged down capacity utilization.
- Tire inventories continued to build up.
- Changes from previous period:
  - TBR Capacity Utilization Rate: -3.02%
  - PCR Capacity Utilization Rate: +0.50%
  - TBR Inventory: +4.46%
  - PCR Inventory: +0.82%
- YoY changes:
  - TBR Capacity Utilization Rate: +2.87%
  - PCR Capacity Utilization Rate: -10.63%
  - TBR Inventory: -0.93%
  - PCR Inventory: +13.68%
Tire Export & Vehicle Sales
- Heavy-duty truck sales increased MoM.
- Passenger car sales maintained growth momentum but saw declining growth rates.
- Tire exports showed a marginal MoM recovery.
- Changes from previous period:
  - TBR Export: +53.37%
  - PCR Export: +0.82%
  - Passenger Car Sales: +19.13%
  - Heavy-duty Truck Sales: +1.92%
- YoY changes:
  - TBR Export: +25.98%
  - PCR Export: +0.19%
  - Passenger Car Sales: +216.23%
  - Heavy-duty Truck Sales: +25.89%