20260208-国泰君安期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_35页_3mb

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the natural rubber market, covering industry news, market trends, and supply and demand data for the week ending February 8, 2026.

Main Points

Industry News

1. Europe's Replacement Tire Market Sales Down 4.7% YoY in Q4 2025

   • Sales in the replacement tire market declined year-on-year to 58.947 million units.
   • Passenger car tire sales dropped 5% YoY to 54.799 million units.
   • Truck and bus tire shipments declined 2% YoY to 2.857 million units.
   • Agricultural tire shipments fell 4.6% YoY to 145,000 units.
   • Motorcycle/scooter tire shipments edged down 0.4% YoY to 1.146 million units.
   • The decline is attributed to weak macroeconomic conditions, including low consumer confidence and limited vehicle mileage growth.

2. China's Heavy-Duty Truck Sales Up ~40% YoY to 101,000 Units in January

   • China's heavy-duty truck market saw a significant increase in sales, reaching approximately 101,000 units in January 2026.

3. Côte d'Ivoire's Natural Rubber Exports Fall YoY and MoM in January

   • Côte d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports dropped 1.8% YoY and 5.8% MoM to 163,000 tons.
   • Côte d'Ivoire is Africa's largest natural rubber grower, but exports have been affected by increased competition from other rubber-producing countries.

4. Indonesia's Total NR & Mixture Rubber Exports Up 1.8% YoY in 2025

   • Indonesia's natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) exports totaled 1.564 million tons in 2025, down 3.5% YoY.
   • Standard rubber exports fell 3% YoY to 1.529 million tons; ribbed smoked sheet (RSS) exports declined 15% YoY to 34,000 tons.
   • Latex exports dropped 50% YoY to 400 tons.
   • Exports to China surged by 74% YoY for natural rubber and 359% YoY for mixture rubber.

5. ANRPC: Global Natural Rubber Output to Rise 1.4% in 2025, Consumption to Fall 0.7%

   • Global natural rubber output is expected to increase by 1.4% YoY to 14.9 million tons in 2025.
   • Global natural rubber consumption is forecast to decline by 0.7% YoY to 15.344 million tons.

Market Trends

• Futures Prices:

  • Rubber futures showed divergent movements, with RU, NR, and SGX TSR20 declining, while JPX RSS3 rose.
  • RU 2605 closed at 16080.00 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from last week.
  • NR 2605 closed at 13085.00 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from last week.
  • SICOM TSR20 2605 closed at 187.90 US cents/kg, down 0.90% from last week.
  • TOCOM RSS3 2605 closed at 341.50 JPY/kg, up 3.42% from last week.

• Basis & Calendar Spread:

  • Basis: SCRWF – RU 05 was at -180.00 yuan/ton, up 14.29% from the previous period.
  • Calendar Spread: RU05 - 09 was at 105.00 yuan/ton, down 22.22% from the previous period.

• Other Spreads:

  • The price spread of RU-NR, RU-JPX RSS3, and NR-SGX TSR20 narrowed.
  • The price spread of RU-BR widened.
  • The price spread of STR Mix-RU05 was at -980.00 yuan/ton, up 13.27% from the previous period.
  • The price spread of SMR Mix-RU05 was at -1030.00 yuan/ton, up 12.71% from the previous period.
  • The price spread of 3L-RU05 was at 220.00 yuan/ton, up 57.14% from the previous period.
  • The price spread of Africa 10#-RU05 was at -3066.67 yuan/ton, up 4.93% from the previous period.

• Price of Substitutes:

  • BR and SBR prices declined due to weaker downstream demand and fading cost support.
  • BR prices fell to 12700.00 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from the previous period.
  • SBR prices dropped to 13050.00 yuan/ton, down 1.88% from the previous period.
  • BR-RU05 spread was at -3380.00 yuan/ton, up 0.88% from the previous period.
  • SBR-RU05 spread was at -3030.00 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous period.

Supply & Demand Data

• Supply:

  • Thailand Weather:
    • The rainy season in southern and northeastern Thailand has ended.
    • The rolling 30-day average temperature and precipitation data indicate a shift towards drier conditions, which may support rubber production.
  • Thailand's Exports:
    • Natural rubber exports in December rose, with all varieties showing growth.
    • TSR exports saw a substantial increase, while latex exports declined.
    • Exports to China increased for most varieties, except latex.
  • Indonesia's Exports:
    • Total natural rubber exports in January fell, with both standard rubber and mixture rubber declining.
    • Exports to China dropped month-on-month, but mixture rubber exports remained high YoY.
  • Vietnam's Exports:
    • Natural rubber exports in November edged up, but standard rubber shipments to China declined.
  • Côte d'Ivoire's Exports:
    • Total rubber exports in January declined, with shipments to China seeing a steeper drop.
  • China's Imports:
    • Natural rubber imports in December increased by 24.84% MoM and 25.40% YoY.
    • Imports from Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia showed varied growth.

• Demand:

  • Tire Capacity Utilization Rate & Inventory:
    • Sample enterprises' capacity utilization rates declined, with some suspending production due to the holiday.
    • TBR inventories increased, while PCR entered a seasonal destocking phase.
  • Tire Export & Vehicle Sales:
    • TBR exports edged down MoM, while PCR exports continued their recovery.
    • Passenger car sales declined both YoY and MoM.
    • Heavy-duty truck sales fell MoM.
  • Highway Turnover Volume:
    • Both cargo and passenger turnover volumes decreased MoM in December, indicating a slowdown in demand.

Key Information

• Market Volatility: Rubber futures showed mixed movements, with some contracts declining and others rising.
• Supply Constraints: Domestic production areas in Thailand and China have largely stopped rubber tapping, leading to a tight supply and increased procurement prices.
• Demand Weakness: Weak macroeconomic conditions and seasonal factors have impacted tire demand, especially in the replacement tire market.
• Regional Dynamics: Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia, and Thailand have shown varied export performance, with Thailand's exports to China increasing significantly.
• Price Trends: Price spreads between different rubber types and substitutes have narrowed or widened, indicating shifts in market dynamics and potential arbitrage opportunities.
• Inventory Movements: TBR inventories built up, while PCR entered a destocking phase, suggesting different demand patterns among tire types.
• Weather Impact: The end of the rainy season in key production areas may support rubber output, but the exact impact on supply remains to be seen.

Conclusion

The natural rubber market is influenced by a combination of regional supply dynamics, demand trends, and macroeconomic factors. While some markets, like China's heavy-duty truck sector, show positive growth, others, such as Europe's replacement tire market, face declining demand. Thailand's exports to China remain a key driver, with increased volumes and prices. The overall market sentiment is mixed, with some contracts showing strength and others reflecting weakness.