20260118-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_35页_3mb

报告摘要

China's Auto Industry: Maintained its position as the world's top auto producer and seller for 17 consecutive years. In 2025, auto production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million units, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. New energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for over 16 million units, making up more than 50% of the total market. NEVs remained the dominant force in the market, with exports reaching 2.615 million units, doubling year-on-year. The "Upgrade and Trade-In" Initiative and new model launches drove market demand. In 2026, the auto industry is expected to continue high-quality development with stable market expectations.
China's Rubber Imports: Natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) imports reached 8.525 million tonnes in 2025, up 16.7% year-on-year. December imports totaled 953,000 tonnes, an increase of 18.4% compared to the same period in 2024. This growth is attributed to the continued expansion of the NEV market and the integration of electrification, intelligence, and connectivity.

Rubber futures on both domestic and overseas markets mostly trended downward this week, with NR leading the declines and RSS3 showing a slight increase.
RU 2605: Closed at 15,835.00 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week.
NR 2605: Closed at 12,830.00 yuan/ton, down 1.46% from the previous week.
SICOM TSR20 2605: Closed at 181.90 US cents/kg, down 1.03% from the previous week.
TOCOM RSS3 2605: Closed at 349.10 JPY/kg, up 1.01% from the previous week.

SCRWF – RU 05: Basis at -235.00 yuan/ton, up 28.79% from the previous week, and up 69.08% year-on-year.
RU05 - RU09: Calendar spread at 30.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00% from the previous week, and up 115.79% year-on-year.

RU-NR: Spread narrowed to 3,005.00 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous week, and up 13.18% year-on-year.
RU-BR: Spread widened to 3,975.00 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous week, and up 28.64% year-on-year.
NR-SGX TSR20: Spread narrowed to 82.81 yuan/ton, down 36.53% from the previous week, and down 88.19% year-on-year.
RU-JPX RSS3: Spread narrowed to 479.82 yuan/ton, down 29.25% from the previous week, and up 172.65% year-on-year.

STR MIX - RU 05: Spread at -905.00 yuan/ton, up 7.65% from the previous week, and up 0.55% year-on-year.
SMR MIX - RU 05: Spread at -955.00 yuan/ton, up 7.28% from the previous week, and up 2.55% year-on-year.
3L - RU 05: Spread at 265.00 yuan/ton, up 431.25% from the previous week, and up 265.63% year-on-year.
Africa 10# - RU 05: Spread at -2,905.61 yuan/ton, up 4.93% from the previous week, and up 14.53% year-on-year.

SCRWF - STR MIX: Spread widened to 670.00 yuan/ton, up 3.08% from the previous week, and up 346.67% year-on-year.
SVR 3L - STR MIX: Spread widened to 1,170.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00% from the previous week, and up 56.00% year-on-year.

Butadiene prices surged, with domestic supply pressure affecting the upward movement.
BR: Closed at 11,750.00 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous week, and down 20.61% year-on-year.
SBR: Closed at 12,250.00 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous week, and down 22.47% year-on-year.
BR-RU05: Spread at -4,085.00 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous week, and down 48.01% year-on-year.
SBR-RU05: Spread at -3,585.00 yuan/ton, up 6.40% from the previous week, and down 103.69% year-on-year.

Thai Cup Lump: Closed at 52.25 THB/kg, down 0.97% from the previous week, and down 13.42% year-on-year.
Thai Latex: Closed at 58.00 THB/kg, up 3.57% from the previous week, and down 14.33% year-on-year.
Thai RSS: Closed at 60.30 THB/kg, up 0.13% from the previous week, and down 24.70% year-on-year.
Thai USS: Closed at 56.92 THB/kg, up 1.01% from the previous week, and down 21.60% year-on-year.
Hainan Latex: Closed at 13,100.00 yuan/ton, up 0.00% from the previous week, and down 10.27% year-on-year.
Yunnan Latex: Closed at 13,900.00 yuan/ton, up 0.00% from the previous week, and down 14.20% year-on-year.

Thai STR: Profit at -311.00 yuan/ton, up 14.09% from the previous week, and down 187.61% year-on-year.
Thai RSS: Profit at 1,344.00 yuan/ton, down 2.25% from the previous week, and down 63.18% year-on-year.
Thai Concentrated Latex: Profit at 528.01 yuan/ton, down 31.17% from the previous week, and down 32.12% year-on-year.
Hainan Concentrated Latex: Profit at 715.58 yuan/ton, up 0.00% from the previous week, and down 51.20% year-on-year.

In November, natural rubber exports edged up, with latex, RSS, and TSR exports increasing, while mixture rubber exports declined.
Total Exports: 376.45 (10kT), down 8.27% month-on-month and down 4.12% year-on-year.
Exports to China: 252.54 (10kT), down 4.32% month-on-month and down 20.49% year-on-year.

In December, standard rubber exports increased month-on-month, while mixture rubber exports declined.
Total Exports: 125.03 (10kT), up 0.56% month-on-month and down 18.68% year-on-year.
Exports to China: 25.83 (10kT), down 27.42% month-on-month and up 0.60% year-on-year.

In November, natural rubber exports increased slightly, while standard rubber exports declined.
Total Exports: 184.88 (10kT), up 0.47% month-on-month and down 19.13% year-on-year.
Exports to China: 153.83 (10kT), up 4.64% month-on-month and down 20.49% year-on-year.

In December, rubber exports increased month-on-month, with exports to China seeing a substantial rise.
Total Exports: 173.27 (10kT), up 2.08% month-on-month and up 11.70% year-on-year.
Exports to China: 64.92 (10kT), up 7.81% month-on-month and up 43.54% year-on-year.

In November, natural rubber imports reached 643,600 tonnes, up 25.98% month-on-month and 14.76% year-on-year.
STR MIX (Thailand): 15.81 (10kT), up 42.36% month-on-month and 19.65% year-on-year.
STR (Thailand): 4.34 (10kT), up 61.70% month-on-month and 46.47% year-on-year.
SVR Mix (Vietnam): 9.35 (10kT), up 1.92% month-on-month and down 25.29% year-on-year.
SVR (Vietnam): 0.32 (10kT), down 16.17% month-on-month and down 17.33% year-on-year.
SIR Mix (Indonesia): 1.22 (10kT), up 19.13% month-on-month and up 216.23% year-on-year.
SIR (Indonesia): 2.49 (10kT), up 0.19% month-on-month and up 25.89% year-on-year.
TSR (Cote d'Ivoire): 6.43 (10kT), up 53.37% month-on-month and up 85.41% year-on-year.

TBR Capacity Utilization Rate: 63.02%, up 13.55% week-on-week and up 9.01% year-on-year.
PCR Capacity Utilization Rate: 72.53%, up 13.72% week-on-week and down 6.49% year-on-year.
TBR Inventory: 46.10%, up 3.32% week-on-week and down 3.27% year-on-year.
PCR Inventory: 47.92%, up 1.18% week-on-week and up 12.94% year-on-year.

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