> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber GTJA Futures Research Institute GAO Linlin (Analyst) Advisory Code : Z0002332 Date : 2026/01/18 # Industry News Industry News # Market Trends Futures Prices Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads Price of Substitutes Capital Trends # Supply & Demand Data Supply Demand Inventory # Summary Summary # Industry News 1 # Industry News # 1. 【2025 China Auto Production and Sales Hit New Historical Highs, Remaining the World's Top for 17 Consecutive Years】 According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) today (the 14th), China's auto industry continued to demonstrate strong development resilience and vitality in 2025, with multiple economic indicators setting new records. Data shows that in December, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.296 million units and 3.272 million units respectively, down $6.7\%$ and $4.6\%$ month-on-month, and $2.1\%$ and $6.2\%$ year-on-year. For the full year of 2025, automobile production and sales stood at 34.531 million units and 34.4 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of $10.4\%$ and $9.4\%$ respectively. Both production and sales hit new historical highs, maintaining the global top position for 17 consecutive years. New growth drivers are being unleashed at an accelerated pace: the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) exceeded 16 million units, with domestic new car sales accounting for over $50\%$ of the total market share, emerging as the dominant force in China's auto market. In terms of foreign trade, the sector exhibited strong resilience: automobile exports surpassed 7 million units, scaling a new height in export volume. Among this total, NEV exports reached 2.615 million units, doubling the year-on-year figure. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of CAAM, stated: "During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's auto industry has achieved breakthroughs in multiple aspects. Production and sales have maintained a scale of over 30 million units for three consecutive years, operating revenue exceeded RMB 10 trillion, export volume rose to the world's top, and the integration of electrification, intelligence and connectivity has accelerated, forging leading industrial advantages." Relevant officials from CAAM indicated that in 2025, the intensified implementation and expanded coverage of China's "Upgrade and Trade-In" Initiative, coupled with the intensive launch of new models by enterprises, have continuously unlocked terminal market demand, driving the auto production and sales to achieve better-than-expected growth in 2025. Notably, in 2025, the sales share of Chinese-brand passenger vehicles approached $70\%$ , rising 4.3 percentage points year-on-year. Bolstered by multiple factors including favorable initiative, abundant product supply and continuous improvement of infrastructure, NEVs maintained steady growth in 2025, securing the global top position in production and sales for 11 consecutive years. Chen Shihua commented: "In 2026, the 'Upgrade and Trade-In' Initiative will be smoothly and orderly connected. The Notice on Implementing the Green Consumption Promotion Campaign, jointly issued by nine ministries and commissions, will accelerate the green transformation of development modes and consumption patterns, which will stabilize market expectations and boost auto consumption. In 2026, China's auto industry will continue to advance high- quality development, with the overall market maintaining steady operation." Source: Qinrex # Industry News # 2. 【GAC: China's Rubber Imports Rose 16.7% YoY to 8.525 Million Tonnes in 2025】 According to data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC) of China on January 14, China's total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 953,000 tonnes in December 2025, representing an $18.4\%$ increase compared with 805,000 tonnes in the same period of 2024. For the full year of 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totalled 8.525 million tonnes, up $16.7\%$ from 7.303 million tonnes in 2024. # 3.【Cambodia's Latex Exports Fell 12.3% YoY in 2025】 The latest report shows that Cambodia's latex exports dropped $12.3\%$ year- on- year to 343,762 tonnes in 2025. The country raked in a total export revenue of $603.6$ million from latex for the full year, down $9\%$ from $\$ 663.8$ million in the same period of 2024; the average export cost stood at $\$ 1,756$ per tonne, approximately $\$ 63$ higher than the same period in 2024. Cambodia's rubber is mainly exported to Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and China. In addition, despite the annual decline in export volume, domestic latex consumption surged by $146\%$ to 124,231 tonnes, with domestic sales revenue hitting $223 million. Lim Heng, Vice Chairman of the Cambodia Chamber of Commerce, stated that the growth in local consumption is mainly attributed to the establishment of domestic tire manufacturing plants. These tire factories use locally produced latex as raw material, thereby creating a stable market for rubber farmers and plantation owners. At present, seven tire factories are in operation in Cambodia, mainly producing automobile tires for export to the international market. According to data from the country's Ministry of Commerce, Cambodia exported tires worth \(1.219 billion from January to November 2025, an increase of \(57.8\%\) compared with \(\$ 772\) million in 2024. Up to now, Cambodia has a total of 448,051 hectares of rubber plantations, of which 346,842 hectares, or \(77.4\%\), are harvestable. # Market trends 02 # Futures Prices > Rubber futures on both domestic and overseas markets mostly trended downward this week, with NR leading the declines while RSS3 edged upward. <table><tr><td></td><td>RU 2605:close (yuan/ton)</td><td>NR 2605:close (yuan/ton)</td><td>SICOM TSR20 2605:close (US cent/kg)</td><td>TOCOM RSS3 2605:close (JPY/kg)</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value</td><td>15835.00</td><td>12830.00</td><td>181.90</td><td>349.10</td></tr><tr><td>Changed (compared to last week).</td><td>-1.22%</td><td>-1.46%</td><td>-1.03%</td><td>1.01%</td></tr></table> Source: iFinD, GTJA Futures Research # Basis & Calendar Spread Basis: SCRWF – RU 05 Calendar Spread: RU05 - 09 <table><tr><td></td><td>SCRWF - RU 05</td><td>05-09: RU</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value (yuan/ton)</td><td>-235.00</td><td>30.00</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>28.79%</td><td>20.00%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>69.08%</td><td>115.79%</td></tr></table> Source: iFinD, GTJA Futures Research # Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads The price spread of RU-NR, NR-SGX TSR20 and RU-JPX RSS3 has narrowed. The price spread of RU-BR has widened. <table><tr><td></td><td>RU05-NR05</td><td>RU05-BR05</td><td>NR05-TSR20 05</td><td>RU05-JPX RSS3 05</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value (yuan/ton)</td><td>3005.00</td><td>3975.00</td><td>82.81</td><td>479.82</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>-0.17%</td><td>0.76%</td><td>-36.53%</td><td>-29.25%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>13.18%</td><td>28.64%</td><td>-88.19%</td><td>172.65%</td></tr></table> Source: Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable) - Future > Prices in the imported rubber market fluctuated this week, with spot prices pulling back along with the futures market toward the end of the week. STR MIX-RU 05 Yuan/ton SVR3L-RU 05 SMR MIX-RU 05 Yuan/ton Africa 10# -RU 05 <table><tr><td></td><td>STR Mix-RU05</td><td>SMR Mix-RU05</td><td>3L-RU05</td><td>Africa 10#-RU05</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value (yuan/ton)</td><td>-905.00</td><td>-955.00</td><td>265.00</td><td>-2905.61</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>7.65%</td><td>7.28%</td><td>431.25%</td><td>4.93%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>0.55%</td><td>2.55%</td><td>265.63%</td><td>14.53%</td></tr></table> Source: iFinD, Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Other Spreads: Light and Dark Colored Rubber The price spread of SCRWF - Thai mixture rubber has widened, and the price spread of 3L - Thai mixture rubber has widened. SCRWF - STR MIX SVR 3L - STR MIX <table><tr><td></td><td>SCRWF - STR Mix</td><td>SVR 3L - STR Mix</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value (yuan/ton)</td><td>670.00</td><td>1170.00</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>3.08%</td><td>30.00%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>346.67%</td><td>56.00%</td></tr></table> Source: iFinD, Oilchem, GTJA Futures Research # Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR During the current period, butadiene prices continued to surge. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber remained high, and spot resources of most brands were ample; the unabated supply pressure weighed on the upward movement of the negotiation focus. The mainstream quotation prices of butadiene rubber saw only a modest increase during the week, with theoretical production margins slipping into negative territory. Despite traders actively attempting to prop up prices, downstream end-users adopted a passive procurement stance and insisted on price cuts. As a result, although the spot price center gradually moved upward, transaction performance remained sluggish. <table><tr><td></td><td>BR</td><td>SBR</td><td>BR-RU05</td><td>SBR-RU05</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value (yuan/ton)</td><td>11750.00</td><td>12250.00</td><td>-4085.00</td><td>-3585.00</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>-1.67%</td><td>0.41%</td><td>-0.12%</td><td>6.40%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-20.61%</td><td>-22.47%</td><td>-48.01%</td><td>-103.69%</td></tr></table> Source: Mysteel, Oilchem, GTJA Futures Research Open Interests/ Warehouse Receipts: RU Amount of bilateral margin required for the open interest of RU Open Interests/ Warehouse Receipts: NR Amount of bilateral margin required for the open interest of NR <table><tr><td></td><td>Open Interests/ Warehouse Receipts: RU</td><td>Open Interests/ Warehouse Receipts: NR</td><td>Bilateral Margin: RU</td><td>Bilateral Margin: NR</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value</td><td>21.50</td><td>20.35</td><td>66.42</td><td>26.75</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>-5.33%</td><td>-2.76%</td><td>-3.64%</td><td>-6.23%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>58.46%</td><td>-37.12%</td><td>5.26%</td><td>-29.21%</td></tr></table> Source: Mysteel, iFinD, GTJA Futures Research # Supply & Demand Data # 03 # Supply: Thailand Weather The rainy season in southern Thailand has basically come to an end. The rainy season in northeastern Thailand has ended. The rolling 30-day average daily maximum temperature in the southern production areas of Thailand (weighted by production volume) 泰国南部近30日平均最高气温（产量加权） The rolling 30-day average daily maximum temperature in the northeast production areas of Thailand (weighted by production volume) 泰国东北部近30日平均最高气温（产量加权） The rolling 30-day average daily precipitation in the southern production areas of Thailand (weighted by production volume) 泰国南部近30日平均降水量（产量加权） The rolling 30-day average daily precipitation in the northeast production areas of Thailand (weighted by production volume) 泰国东北部近30日平均降雨量（产量加权） Source: Wind, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: China Weather The rainy season in Hainan and Yunnan production areas has basically come to an end. The rolling 30-day average temperature in the production areas of Hainan (weighted by production volume) The rolling 30-day average temperature in the production areas of Yunnan (weighted by production volume) The rolling 30-day average precipitation in the production areas of Hainan (weighted by production volume) The rolling 30-day average precipitation in the production areas of Yunnan (weighted by production volume) Source: Wind, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: Raw material prices > Domestic production areas have entered the tail end of the tapping season. Supported by overseas factories' restocking demand and improved EU orders, raw material prices trended upward but pulled back toward the end of the week. THB/kg Cup Lump: Songkhla, Thailand RSS: Songkhla, Thailand Latex: Hainan THB/kg Latex: Songkhla, Thailand USS: Songkhla, Thailand Yuan/ton Latex: Yunnan <table><tr><td></td><td>Thai Cup Lump</td><td>Thai Latex</td><td>Thai RSS</td><td>Thai USS</td><td>Hainan Latex</td><td>Yunnan Latex</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/9</td><td>2025/12/3</td></tr><tr><td>Value (THB/kg) (yuan/ton)</td><td>52.25</td><td>58.00</td><td>60.30</td><td>56.92</td><td>13100.00</td><td>13900.00</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>-0.97%</td><td>3.57%</td><td>0.13%</td><td>1.01%</td><td>0.00%</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-13.42%</td><td>-14.33%</td><td>-24.70%</td><td>-21.60%</td><td>-10.27%</td><td>-14.20%</td></tr></table> # Supply: Price Spreads between Raw Materials The price spread between Thai latex and cup lump has widened. > Domestic production areas have basically suspended rubber tapping, with prices temporarily ceasing updates. Spread: Latex – Cup Lump: Thailand Spread: Latex Quotes: Concentrated Latex Plants – SCRWF Plants: Hainan Spread: Latex Quotes: Concentrated Latex Plants – SCRWF Plants: Yunnan <table><tr><td></td><td>Thai Latex - Cup Lump</td><td>Spread: Latex Quotes: Concentrated Latex Plants - SCRWF Plants: Hainan</td><td>Spread: Latex Quotes: Concentrated Latex Plants - SCRWF Plants: Yunnan</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/9</td><td>2025/12/5</td></tr><tr><td>Value (THB/kg) (yuan/ton)</td><td>5.75</td><td>800.00</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>77.47%</td><td>0.00%</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-21.77%</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr></table> Source: Sublime China Information, Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: Processing Profit Profit margins of rubber processing in Thailand have diverged, with those of TSR on the rise while margins for RSS and concentrated latex have declined. Yuan/ton Thailand STR20 Thailand RSS3 Yuan/ton Thailand Concentrated Latex Yuan/ton Hannan Concentrated Latex <table><tr><td></td><td>Thai STR</td><td>Thai RSS</td><td>Thai Concentrated Latex</td><td>Hannan Concentrated Latex</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/9</td></tr><tr><td>Value (yuan/ton)</td><td>-311.00</td><td>1344.00</td><td>528.01</td><td>715.58</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>14.09%</td><td>-2.25%</td><td>-31.17%</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-187.61%</td><td>-63.18%</td><td>-32.12%</td><td>-51.20%</td></tr></table> Source: Oilchem, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: Delivery Profit > Domestic production areas have basically suspended rubber tapping, with prices temporarily ceasing updates. Delivery Profit: SCRWF: Hainan Delivery Profit: SCRWF: Yunnan <table><tr><td></td><td>Delivery Profit: SCRWF: Hainan</td><td>Delivery Profit: SCRWF: Yunnan</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/9</td><td>2025/12/5</td></tr><tr><td>Value (yuan/ton)</td><td>-387.00</td><td>-498.00</td></tr><tr><td>Changed compared to previous period (2026/1/9)</td><td>0.00%</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-184.50%</td><td>-212.67%</td></tr></table> Source: Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: Thailand's Exports In November, Thailand's exports of natural rubber dropped month-on-month; latex exports edged up slightly, while exports of RSS, TSR and mixture rubber declined. <table><tr><td></td><td>Latex</td><td>RSS</td><td>STR</td><td>STR MIX</td><td>Total</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT)</td><td>58.54</td><td>39.05</td><td>106.33</td><td>153.71</td><td>376.45</td></tr><tr><td>MoM</td><td>0.91%</td><td>-12.55%</td><td>-8.08%</td><td>-11.33%</td><td>-8.27%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-7.18%</td><td>19.65%</td><td>5.65%</td><td>-15.98%</td><td>-4.12%</td></tr></table> Source: Qinrex, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: Thailand's Exports to China In November, the volume of Thailand's natural rubber exports to China dropped month-on-month; exports of latex, RSS and TSR rose month-on-month, while exports of mixture rubber declined month-on-month. <table><tr><td></td><td>Latex</td><td>RSS</td><td>STR</td><td>STR MIX</td><td>Total</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT)</td><td>24.06</td><td>20.36</td><td>51.11</td><td>153.08</td><td>252.54</td></tr><tr><td>MoM</td><td>12.50%</td><td>1.51%</td><td>5.78%</td><td>-11.48%</td><td>-4.32%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>8.32%</td><td>90.26%</td><td>92.93%</td><td>-14.24%</td><td>5.70%</td></tr></table> Source: Qinrex, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: Indonesia's Exports In December, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports edged up month-on-month, with exports of standard rubber rising month-on-month while those of mixture rubber declining. > Exports to China saw a relatively significant month-on-month drop. <table><tr><td></td><td>SIR</td><td>SIR MIX</td><td>Total</td><td>SIR: to China</td><td>SIR MIX: to China</td><td>Total: to China</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2025/12/31</td><td>2025/12/31</td><td>2025/12/31</td><td>2025/12/31</td><td>2025/12/31</td><td>2025/12/31</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT)</td><td>102.36</td><td>15.32</td><td>125.03</td><td>10.65</td><td>13.83</td><td>25.83</td></tr><tr><td>MoM</td><td>4.44%</td><td>-26.39%</td><td>0.56%</td><td>-29.99%</td><td>-30.07%</td><td>-27.42%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-29.34%</td><td>341.67%</td><td>-18.68%</td><td>-49.42%</td><td>303.53%</td><td>0.60%</td></tr></table> Source: Qinrex, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: Vietnam's Exports In November, Vietnam's natural rubber exports edged up month-on-month, while exports of standard rubber recorded a relatively significant month-on-month drop. > Exports to China rose month-on-month, yet standard rubber shipments to the country saw a notable month-on-month decline. KT Latex: Vietnam $\rightarrow$ World SVR: Vietnam $\rightarrow$ World SVR MIX: Vietnam $\rightarrow$ World Total: Vietnam $\rightarrow$ World (incl. Mixed Rubber) Total: Vietnam $\rightarrow$ China KT Latex: Vietnam $\rightarrow$ China SVR: Vietnam $\rightarrow$ China SVR MIX: Vietnam $\rightarrow$ China (incl. Mixed Rubber) <table><tr><td></td><td>Latex</td><td>SVR</td><td>SVR MIX</td><td>Total</td><td>Latex: to China</td><td>SVR: to China</td><td>SVR MIX: to China</td><td>Total: to China</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT)</td><td>34.99</td><td>21.25</td><td>123.35</td><td>184.88</td><td>24.87</td><td>4.18</td><td>123.17</td><td>153.83</td></tr><tr><td>MoM</td><td>-5.95%</td><td>-28.74%</td><td>11.64%</td><td>0.47%</td><td>0.22%</td><td>-52.83%</td><td>11.48%</td><td>4.64%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-14.91%</td><td>-18.47%</td><td>-20.77%</td><td>-19.13%</td><td>-19.10%</td><td>-5.45%</td><td>-20.89%</td><td>-20.49%</td></tr></table> Source: Qinrex, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: Cote d'Ivoire's Exports In December, rubber exports from Côte d'lvoire increased month-on-month, with shipments to China registering a relatively substantial month-on-month rise (the 2025 data has been subject to significant revisions in this release). <table><tr><td></td><td>TSR</td><td>Total</td><td>TSR: to China</td><td>Total: to China</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2025/12/31</td><td>2025/12/31</td><td>2025/12/31</td><td>2025/12/31</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT)</td><td>171.40</td><td>173.27</td><td>64.92</td><td>64.92</td></tr><tr><td>MoM</td><td>2.65%</td><td>2.08%</td><td>7.81%</td><td>7.81%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>19.41%</td><td>11.70%</td><td>43.54%</td><td>43.54%</td></tr></table> Source: Qinrex, GTJA Futures Research # Supply: China's Imports > In November, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixture rubber and compound rubber) reached 643,600 tons, up $25.98\%$ month-on-month and $14.76\%$ year-on-year. > Imports of Thai mixture rubber, Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber registered substantial month-on-month growth in November, while imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixture rubber saw a year-on-year decline. <table><tr><td></td><td>STR MIX: Thailand</td><td>STR: from Thailand</td><td>SVR Mix: from Vietnam</td><td>SVR: from Vietnam</td><td>SIR MIX: from Indonesia</td><td>SIR: from Indonesia</td><td>TSR: from Cote d'lvoire</td><td>Total Imports</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT)</td><td>15.81</td><td>4.34</td><td>9.35</td><td>0.32</td><td>1.22</td><td>2.49</td><td>6.43</td><td>64.36</td></tr><tr><td>MoM</td><td>42.36%</td><td>61.70%</td><td>1.92%</td><td>-16.17%</td><td>19.13%</td><td>0.19%</td><td>53.37%</td><td>25.98%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>19.65%</td><td>46.47%</td><td>-25.29%</td><td>-17.33%</td><td>216.23%</td><td>25.89%</td><td>85.41%</td><td>14.76%</td></tr></table> Source: iFinD, Wind, Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Demand: Tire Capacity Utilization Rate & Inventory During the current period, as the production scheduling of maintenance-affected enterprises gradually stabilized, output volume registered a notable week-on-week increase from the previous week. Some PCR manufacturers saw an uptick in export orders, which drove up the capacity utilization rate of sample PCR enterprises. In contrast, certain TBR producers witnessed a marked climb in finished goods inventory; to curb the pace of inventory growth, these enterprises implemented production curtailments to some extent, which capped the growth of TBR capacity utilization rate. TBR saw another round of inventory build-up, while PCR continued to accumulate inventory. <table><tr><td></td><td>TBR Capacity Utilization Rate</td><td>PCR Capacity Utilization Rate</td><td>TBR Inventory</td><td>PCR Inventory</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value (%) (Day)</td><td>63.02</td><td>72.53</td><td>46.10</td><td>47.92</td></tr><tr><td>WoW</td><td>13.55%</td><td>13.72%</td><td>3.32%</td><td>1.18%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>9.01%</td><td>-6.49%</td><td>-3.27%</td><td>12.94%</td></tr></table> Source: Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Demand: Tire Export & Vehicle Sales In November, tire exports saw a marginal month-on-month recovery. In November, the sales volume of heavy-duty trucks registered a month-on-month growth with an accelerated growth rate. In December, passenger cars sales fell both year-on-year and month-on-month. TBR Export PCR Export Sales: Passenger Car Sales: Heavy-duty Truck <table><tr><td></td><td>TBR Export</td><td>PCR Export</td><td>Sales: Passenger Car</td><td>Sales: Heavy-duty Truck</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/12/31</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT) (10k Units)</td><td>41.85</td><td>23.71</td><td>11.32</td><td>284.73</td></tr><tr><td>MoM</td><td>5.00%</td><td>4.99%</td><td>6.64%</td><td>-6.26%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>6.65%</td><td>-7.04%</td><td>65.38%</td><td>-8.74%</td></tr></table> Source: Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Demand: Highway Turnover Volume In November, the highway freight turnover volume increased MoM, while the passenger turnover volume decreased MoM. Highway Cargo Turnover Volume Highway Passenger Turnover Volume <table><tr><td></td><td>Highway Cargo Turnover Volume (100 Million Ton-Kilometers)</td><td>Highway Passenger Turnover Volume (100 Million Passenger-Kilometers)</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2025/11/30</td><td>2025/11/30</td></tr><tr><td>Value</td><td>7120.68</td><td>421.00</td></tr><tr><td>MoM</td><td>3.33%</td><td>-4.32%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>3.94%</td><td>-0.94%</td></tr></table> Source: iFinD, GTJA Futures Research # Rubber Inventory > China's natural rubber inventories continued to build up in the current period, with significant inventory accumulation of dark rubber in particular. Supported by moderate post-holiday restocking by downstream end-users, outbound volumes at Qingdao Port improved compared with the previous period. However, the overall inventory build-up trend persisted due to factors such as inbound arrivals. <table><tr><td></td><td>Dark Colored Rubber Inventory</td><td>Light Colored Rubber Inventory</td><td>China NR Spot Inventory</td></tr><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/9</td><td>2026/1/9</td><td>2026/1/9</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT)</td><td>83.58</td><td>42.10</td><td>125.68</td></tr><tr><td>WoW</td><td>2.55%</td><td>0.84%</td><td>1.97%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>17.02%</td><td>-22.03%</td><td>10.90%</td></tr></table> Source: Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Rubber Inventory: SHFE Rubber Inventory: On Warrant: RU: SHFE Rubber Inventory: Deliverable: RU: SHFE Rubber Inventory: On Warrant: NR: INE Rubber Inventory: Deliverable: NR: INE Rubber Inventory: On Warrant: RU Rubber Inventory: Deliverable: RU Rubber Inventory: On Warrant: NR Rubber Inventory: Deliverable: NR <table><tr><td>Date</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td><td>2026/1/16</td></tr><tr><td>Value (10kT)</td><td>10.84</td><td>12.29</td><td>5.68</td><td>5.94</td></tr><tr><td>WoW</td><td>3.73%</td><td>1.57%</td><td>-0.35%</td><td>0.17%</td></tr><tr><td>YoY</td><td>-34.40%</td><td>-28.48%</td><td>17.04%</td><td>15.04%</td></tr></table> Source: Mysteel, GTJA Futures Research # Summary # 04 # Weak Oscillation <table><tr><td>Supply</td><td>As of Friday, the price of Thailand's raw latex stood at 58 baht/kg and that of cup lump rubber at 52.2 baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/tonne. China's social inventory of natural rubber stood at 1.256 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9% week-on-week. The total social inventory of China's dark-colored rubber was 835,000 tons, up 2.5%. The total social inventory of China's light-colored rubber was 421,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.8%. Overseas raw material prices trended downward, weakening cost support. Coupled with the bearish sentiment prevailing across the bulk commodity market, rubber prices fluctuated lower.</td></tr><tr><td>Demand</td><td>It is understood that there have been certain divergences in the operation of enterprise production facilities recently. Some TBR manufacturers are facing mounting shipment pressure and have curbed production to control inventory levels. In contrast, supported by export orders, some PCR enterprises have raised their operating rates to a high level; these enterprises are currently in the phase of stockpiling, and inventory has continued its upward trend.</td></tr><tr><td>Outlook</td><td>Overseas raw material prices staged a brief pullback, weakening cost support and dampening bullish market sentiment. The seasonal inventory build-up trend of natural rubber remains intact, while production and sales pressure on the downstream persists. Against the backdrop of bearish sentiment in the bulk commodity market, rubber prices are likely to edge lower in the short term. Nevertheless, from a full-year perspective, warehouse receipt volumes may remain relatively low, limiting the downside potential.</td></tr><tr><td>Valuation</td><td>The price spread between the active contracts of RU and NR stood at 3,090 RMB per ton, narrowing by 55 RMB per ton. The price spread between mixed standard rubber and the RU active contract was -905 RMB per ton, narrowing by 90 RMB per ton.</td></tr><tr><td>Strategy</td><td>1) Long/short position: Adopt a range-bound trading strategy; the futures market will likely trend weakly with fluctuations, while the downside potential remains limited 2) Calendar Spread: Under observation 3) Inter-commodity Spread: Go long on RU and short on NR; this may deviate from the seasonal spread trend observed in previous years</td></tr><tr><td>Risk</td><td>Disruptions caused by extreme weather, shocks from macroeconomic events, etc.</td></tr></table> Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting business in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company's professional investors. 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