20260111-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_36页_3mb

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the natural rubber market, focusing on industry news, market trends, and supply and demand dynamics. It highlights the impact of natural disasters and geopolitical events on production and exports, as well as the influence of substitute prices and market sentiment on futures prices and trading activity.

Main Points

Industry News

1. Thailand's Rubber Output Reduction

   • Cause: Border conflicts with Cambodia and floods in southern Thailand.
   • Impact: Over 44,000 tonnes reduction in rubber output, economic losses exceeding 2.995 billion baht.
   • Affected Areas: 9 provinces in southern Thailand and 7 provinces near the border.
   • Damaged Area: Over 1.9 million rai.
   • Government Response: Disaster assessments, emergency relief measures, and expedited flood relief for rubber farmers.

2. Indonesia's Natural Rubber Exports

   • Total Exports (Jan-Nov 2025): 1.458 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 1%.
   • Key Product Exports:
     • Standard Rubber: 1.426 million tonnes, down 0.8%.
     • Ribbed Smoked Sheets (RSS): 31,000 tonnes, down 14%.
     • Latex: 400 tonnes, down 43%.
   • Exports to China: Natural rubber exports increased by 88%, mixture rubber by 363%.
   • Combined Exports (Jan-Nov 2025): 1.551 million tonnes, up 4% year-on-year.

3. Sri Lanka's Natural Rubber Output Concerns

   • Output Decline: From 98,600 tonnes in 2014 to 69,200 tonnes in 2024, a 7% annual decline.
   • Cultivation Area Reduction: From 133,000 hectares to 84,000 hectares.
   • Potential Revenue: If output is maintained, it could generate over USD 4 billion in annual foreign exchange revenue.
   • Challenges: Urbanization, industrialization, crop diversification, and low profitability.
   • Recommendations: Identify alternative land, optimize cultivation technologies, and incentivize farmers to invest in non-traditional areas.

Market Trends

• Futures Prices:
  • Rubber futures on both domestic and overseas markets rallied, with RU leading the gains.
  • Prices for RU, NR, SICOM TSR20, and TOCOM RSS3 all increased, with RU showing the highest growth of 2.72%.
• Basis & Calendar Spread:
  • Basis (SCRWF – RU 05): -330.00 yuan/ton, up 7.04% compared to the previous period and 56.58% YoY.
  • Calendar Spread (RU05 - 09): 25.00 yuan/ton, down 58.33% compared to the previous period and up 115.63% YoY.
• Other Spreads:
  • RU-NR: 3010.00 yuan/ton, up 4.51%.
  • NR-SGX TSR20: 130.47 yuan/ton, up 62.71%.
  • RU-JPX RSS3: 678.19 yuan/ton, up 87.57%.
  • RU-BR: 3945.00 yuan/ton, down 1.38%.
• Spot vs. Future Prices:
  • Spot purchase prices lagged behind deferred-month contracts.
  • Downstream procurement remained relatively muted, with purchases driven by moderate demand for stock replenishment.
  • Overall market sentiment was lackluster, with actual transactions remaining thin.

Supply & Demand Data

• Supply:
  • Thailand Weather:
    • Southern Thailand's rainy season is ending, with declining rainfall.
    • Northeastern Thailand's rainfall is higher than previous years.
  • Raw Material Prices:
    • Domestic production areas have entered the tail end of the tapping season.
    • Prices of raw materials such as Thai latex, cup lump, RSS, and USS have been rising.
  • Price Spreads:
    • Thai latex - cup lump: 3.67 THB/kg, down 22.08%.
    • Hainan concentrated latex - SCFWF: 800.00 yuan/ton, stable.
    • Yunnan concentrated latex - SCFWF: 715.58 yuan/ton, up 72.19%.
  • Processing Profit:
    • Thailand's rubber processing margins have generally recovered.
  • Delivery Profit:
    • Hainan-produced SCRWF delivery profit increased, while Yunnan's remained stable.
  • Thailand's Exports:
    • Natural rubber exports to China declined month-on-month.
    • Latex, RSS, and TSR exports to China increased.
  • Indonesia's Exports:
    • Total natural rubber exports increased slightly, with standard rubber up and mixture rubber down.
    • Exports to China saw a significant decline.
  • Vietnam's Exports:
    • Natural rubber exports increased month-on-month.
    • Standard rubber exports to China declined significantly.
  • Cote d'Ivoire's Exports:
    • Rubber exports increased, with a notable rise in shipments to China.
  • China's Imports:
    • Total natural rubber imports reached 643,600 tons in November, up 25.98% month-on-month and 14.76% year-on-year.
    • Imports from Thailand, Vietnam, and Cote d'Ivoire showed mixed trends, with some products increasing and others decreasing.

Demand

• Tire Capacity Utilization & Inventory:
  • TBR capacity utilization rate dropped to 55.50%, while PCR remained at 63.78%.
  • TBR saw destocking, while PCR continued to build inventory.
• Tire Export & Vehicle Sales:
  • Heavy-duty truck sales increased month-on-month.
  • Passenger vehicle sales maintained growth but with declining year-on-year and month-on-month rates.
  • Tire exports showed a marginal recovery in November.

Key Information

• Thailand's Production Impact: The combined effects of border conflicts and floods caused significant damage to rubber plantations and production.
• Indonesia's Export Trends: Despite a decline in natural rubber exports, exports to China surged.
• Sri Lanka's Decline: The rubber industry faces a long-term decline due to shrinking cultivation areas and output.
• Futures Market Trends: Prices of natural rubber futures showed an upward trend, with varying performance across different contracts.
• Raw Material Prices: Prices of raw materials rose, driven by supply constraints and cost-side factors.
• Market Sentiment: Spot prices lagged behind futures, and downstream demand remained weak.
• China's Import Growth: China's imports of natural rubber increased significantly in November, with mixed performance from different sources.

Conclusion

The natural rubber market is influenced by a combination of geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and changing demand dynamics. While Thailand faces immediate production challenges, Indonesia and Cote d'Ivoire show signs of recovery in exports, particularly to China. The futures market remains positive, with various spreads and margins indicating a fluctuating but upward trend. Demand for natural rubber is mixed, with some segments showing growth while others face stagnation or decline. The market requires careful monitoring of supply chain stability and demand trends to predict future movements.