20251221-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_35页_3mb

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the natural rubber market, focusing on industry news, market trends, supply and demand data, and key price spreads and substitutes. It highlights the current state of the market, including export data, weather conditions, and price movements, which are critical for understanding supply and demand dynamics.

Main Points

Industry News

1. China's Tire Exports Up 3.7% YoY in Jan-Nov

   • Total rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons, up 3.7% from the previous year.
   • Export value reached RMB 153.7 billion, up 2.5% YoY.
   • New pneumatic rubber tire exports increased by 3.5% to 8.50 million tons.
   • Automobile tire exports increased by 3.1% to 7.51 million tons.

2. NBS: China's Rubber Tire Output Down 2.6% YoY in November

   • Rubber tire casing output in November 2025 was 101.828 million units, down 2.6% YoY.
   • Total output for Jan-Nov was 1.103115 billion units, up 0.6% YoY.

3. U.S. Cumulative Tire Imports Up 6.6% YoY in Jan-Sep

   • Total tire imports into the U.S. reached 2.17312 billion units, up 6.6% YoY.
   • Passenger car tires increased by 4% to 131.08 million units.
   • Truck and bus tires increased by 8% to 47.16 million units.
   • Aircraft tires decreased by 9.3% to 0.202 million units.
   • Motorcycle tires increased by 17% to 2.92 million units.
   • Bicycle tires increased by 2% to 5 million units.
   • Cumulative tire imports from China to the U.S. fell 12% to 16.92 million units.
   • Cumulative tire imports from Thailand to the U.S. increased 14% to 56.28 million units.

4. RAOT Approves Additional Budget to Stabilize Rubber Prices

   • RAOT approved an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to stabilize rubber prices.
   • The initiative includes purchasing cup lump rubber, processing it into STR 20 standard rubber, and selling it to domestic and overseas clients.
   • Annual target is to absorb 250,000 tons of rubber.
   • RAOT has already procured over 33,000 tons of cup lump rubber by December 1, 2025.
   • Collaboration with key domestic enterprises is in place to manage rubber production and ensure compliance with international standards.

Market Trends

• Futures Prices:
  • RU futures edged down slightly.
  • NR, SGX TSR20, and JPX RSS3 futures posted marginal gains.
• Basis & Calendar Spread:
  • SCRWF - RU05 basis decreased by 3.03% to -340 yuan/ton.
  • RU05 - RU09 calendar spread decreased by 20% to 20 yuan/ton.
• Other Spreads:
  • RU-NR and RU-BR spreads narrowed.
  • NR-SGX TSR20 and RU-JPX RSS3 spreads widened.
  • Spot prices for STR MIX, SMR MIX, and SVR3L moved upward, while core spot price for domestic natural rubber also increased.
  • Downstream inquiry sentiment improved slightly, with procurement dominated by cautious rigid demand.

Price of Substitutes (BR & SBR)

• BR and SBR prices moved higher due to rigid demand-driven purchases.
• Butadiene rubber prices are near a five-year low, but some market participants are optimistic about a recovery in early 2026.
• Synthetic rubber futures showed a sharp upward movement, reinforcing a bullish stance on price maintenance.
• Arbitrageurs are actively purchasing private-brand cargoes at a discount of over 400 CNY/ton.
• Downstream buyers are showing increased resistance to high prices.

Supply & Demand Data

Weather Conditions

• Thailand: Southern regions entered the rainy season, with recent rainfall decreases. Northeastern regions saw the end of the rainy season, with lower temperatures compared to the previous year.
• China: Hainan and Yunnan rubber-producing regions have ended the rainy season.

Raw Material Prices

• Thai Cup Lump and Latex prices increased slightly.
• Thai RSS prices decreased marginally.
• Hainan Latex prices remained stable.
• Yunnan Latex prices saw a significant drop.

Processing Profit

• Thailand's rubber processing profit margins declined across all categories.
• STR profit margin dropped by 128.03%.
• RSS profit margin decreased by 5.68%.
• Concentrated Latex profit margin decreased by 50.56%.
• Hainan Concentrated Latex profit margin decreased by 43.11%.

Delivery Profit

• Hainan-produced SCRWF delivery profit decreased significantly.
• Yunnan delivery profit data updates were suspended.

Exports

• Thailand's natural rubber exports in October increased, with STR and mixture rubber leading the growth.
• Thailand's exports to China in October increased substantially, with TSR and mixture rubber showing the largest MoM increases.
• Indonesia's natural rubber exports in October fell both YoY and MoM, but mixed rubber exports increased.
• Vietnam's natural rubber exports in October increased MoM, with latex showing substantial growth.
• Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports declined MoM, with shipments to China showing a significant decrease.

China's Imports

• China's natural rubber imports in November reached 643,600 tons, up 25.98% MoM and 14.76% YoY.
• Thai mixture rubber imports increased by 42.36% MoM.
• Thai standard rubber imports increased by 61.70% MoM.
• Vietnamese standard rubber and mixture rubber imports saw a YoY decline.
• Indonesian mixture rubber and standard rubber imports saw substantial YoY increases.
• Côte d'Ivoire standard rubber imports increased by 53.37% MoM.

Key Information

• Market Dynamics:
  • Rubber futures prices fluctuated slightly, with NR and JPX RSS3 showing marginal gains.
  • The basis and calendar spread for RU decreased, indicating a potential weakening in the market.
  • The price spreads between substitutes and natural rubber narrowed, reflecting increased demand and tighter supply.
• Weather Impact:
  • Thailand's weather conditions influenced production and supply.
  • China's rubber-producing regions have ended the rainy season, which may affect production and tapping.
• Supply Chain:
  • RAOT's initiatives aim to stabilize prices and support rubber farmers.
  • Collaboration with domestic enterprises is key to managing production and ensuring compliance.
• Demand Trends:
  • Tire capacity utilization rates decreased slightly.
  • Inventories continued to build up, indicating weak demand.
  • Export data shows mixed trends, with some categories increasing and others decreasing.
• Economic Implications:
  • The initiatives by RAOT are expected to support rubber farmers and improve their income and living standards.
  • Market participants are optimistic about potential price recovery for butadiene rubber in early 2026.
  • The overall economic growth may be influenced by these market dynamics and government interventions.