2023-10-01-莱坊-Regional_NSW_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_673kb

报告摘要

Regional NSW Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q3 2023 report provides an analysis of the residential market in Regional New South Wales (NSW), highlighting trends in sales, rental vacancies, economic growth, and lending environment. The report also includes population data, price performance, and future forecasts.

Key Market Trends

Residential Rental Vacancy

Vacancy Rate: Total residential rental vacancy in Regional NSW reached 2.0% in June 2023, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter and 1.4% one year earlier.
Market Adjustment: The increase in vacancy has slowed the rapid rental growth seen since mid-2020.
Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields for houses increased by 2 bps to 4.05%.
Rental Growth: Median weekly rents increased by 5.6% annually, with a 0.9% rise in the June 2023 quarter. Median rents stood at $565 per week.

Sales & Price Performance

Sales Volume: Annual sales volume decreased by 23.5% to 30,505 houses.
Days on Market: The average days on market for a house increased to 78 days in the June 2023 quarter, up from 68 days one quarter prior.
Price Decline: Median house values fell by 2.9% over the year to June 2023, and by 2.2% in the last quarter, reaching a median value of $849,500.

Economic Environment

Economic Growth: NSW's economic growth was 2.2% in 2022, with a forecast of 2.5% by 2025 according to Oxford Economics.
Unemployment Rate: Regional NSW unemployment was 2.6% in June 2023, a 35 bps decrease from the previous quarter.
Cash Rate: The official cash rate remained at 4.10% for three months, with a forecast of a reduction to an average of 3.38% by the end of 2025.

Lending Environment

Household Loan Commitments: New household loan commitments in NSW increased by 4.8% in the June 2023 quarter, up from a -2.3% decline in the prior quarter.
First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to first home buyers declined by 13.2% in June 2023, representing 16.6% of all owner occupier loans.
Mortgage Rates:
- Owner occupier mortgage rates for 3-year fixed loans rose by 5 bps to 6.32%.
- Standard variable loans increased by 50 bps to 8.52%.
- Investor mortgage rates for 3-year fixed loans rose by 18 bps to 6.50%.
- Standard variable loans for investors increased by 50 bps to 9.10%.

Population Trends

Regional NSW Population: Estimated at 2.9 million persons in 2022, with an annual population change of 0.9%.
Projected Growth: Population growth is expected to slow to 0.6% per annum by 2041.
Inner vs. Outer Regional: Inner regional areas saw an 0.9% annual population change, while outer regional areas recorded 0.2%.

Market Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (2021–2025)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025 AVE
Economic Growth	4.4%	2.2%	1.0%	0.4%	2.5%	1.3%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	4.1%	3.4%	3.8%

Regional NSW Residential Forecast (2021–2025)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025 AVE
Price Performance	30%	14%	-5%	-7%	-1%	-4%
Rental Market	13%	9%	3%	2%	3%	3%

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61 2 9036 6659
Residential Site Sales: Grant Bulpett
Email: grant.bulpett@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61 2 9761 1872
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61 2 9036 6845
Residential: Erin van Tuil
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61 2 9036 6699
Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61 2 9036 6700
Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61 2 9036 662