2023-10-01-莱坊-Regional_Queensland_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_664kb

Regional Queensland Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q3 2023 report provides an in-depth analysis of the residential real estate markets in Regional Queensland, highlighting trends in sales, rentals, economic growth, and lending environments. The report emphasizes continued demand for residential properties, leading to rising capital values and reduced rental vacancies.

Main Market Trends

• Demand and Capital Growth:
  Residential homes in Regional Queensland remain in high demand, contributing to capital value growth and tighter rental markets.

  • Median house value increased by 7.4% over the year to June 2023, reaching $545,500.
  • Annual median weekly rental growth was 13.8%, with median rents at $495 per week.
  • Total residential rental vacancy stood at 1.1%, showing a slight decrease from 1.2% in the previous quarter and 0.5% a year ago.

• Economic Growth:

  • Queensland's economic growth was 3.2% in 2022 and is forecasted to reach 3.3% by 2025.
  • Regional Queensland unemployment rate was 4.0% in June 2023, trending 9 bps below the previous quarter.

• Lending Environment:

  • New household loan commitments in Queensland rose by 6.9% in the June 2023 quarter, reversing the previous quarter's decline.
  • Owner occupier first home buyer lending commitments decreased by 1.5% in June 2023, representing 16.3% of all owner occupier loans.
  • Mortgage rates increased:
    • 3-year fixed term: 6.32% (up 5 bps)
    • Standard variable loan: 8.52% (up 50 bps)
    • Investor 3-year fixed term: 6.50% (up 18 bps)
    • Investor standard variable loan: 9.10% (up 50 bps)
  • The official cash rate remained at 4.10% since September 2023, with a forecast to drop to an average of 3.38% by 2025.

New Builds and Population

• Building Approvals:

  • Total residential building approvals in Queensland were 2,853 in the quarter to June 2023, a 69.0% decrease compared to the previous quarter.

• Population Growth:

  • Regional Queensland's population was estimated at 2.7 million in 2022, with an annual population change of 1.9%.
  • Projected population growth to 2041 is 1.1% per annum.
  • Inner regional areas saw a 2.1% annual population change, while outer regional areas recorded 1.5%.

Forecast Insights

Source: Oxford Economics for economic and rate forecasts; Knight Frank Research for market performance forecasts.

Key Contacts

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski – +612 9036 6659 – michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Site Sales: Blake Goddard – +617 3246 8848 – blake.goddard@au.knightfrank.com
• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen – +612 9036 6845 – sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential: Erin van Tuil – +612 9036 6699 – erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes – +612 9036 700 – luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter – +612 9036 6662 – al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com

Conclusion

The Regional Queensland residential market continues to show resilience, driven by strong demand and economic stability. While sales volume declined, capital values and rental prices remained robust, supported by low vacancy rates and favorable economic conditions. The lending environment has seen mixed trends, with rising mortgage rates impacting both owner occupiers and investors. Future growth is expected to moderate, with forecasts indicating a slower pace of price and rental increases over the next few years.