2024-01-24-莱坊-Regional_NSW_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_3页_689kb

报告摘要

Regional NSW Residential Insight Summary - Q4 2023

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q4 2023 report provides an analysis of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in Regional New South Wales (NSW). The report highlights trends in economic growth, lending environment, new builds, population changes, and market performance, with forecasts for the next few years.

Key Market Trends

Rental Market

Rental Growth: Rental growth has remained stable for the first time since June 2020, with the average house rent in Regional NSW still higher than the same time last year.
Vacancy Rate: Total residential rental vacancy increased to 2.1% in September 2023, up by 18 basis points (bps) over the past year.
Weekly Rent: Average weekly rent for houses in Regional NSW stood at $565, up 3.7% annually.
Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields rose by 2 bps in the past year, averaging 4.08% in September 2023.
Forecast: Rents are expected to increase by 3% by the end of 2023, 2% in 2024, and 3% in 2025.

Sales Market

Sales Volume: Sales volume in the Regional NSW market decreased by 15.9% in the year ending September 2023, with 30,776 houses sold.
Days on Market: The average days on market for a house increased to 86 days in September 2023, compared to 78 days three months earlier and 50 days one year ago.
House Values: Average house values fell by 6.5% in the year to September 2023, reaching $835,500, and declined by 1.6% over the last quarter.
Price Forecast: Average prices are forecast to decline by 5% by the end of 2023, 3% in 2024, and 1% in 2025.

Economic and Lending Environment

Economic Growth

NSW Economic Growth: The NSW economy grew by 2.2% in 2022, with a forecast of 2.4% in 2025 (Oxford Economics).
Regional Unemployment: The unemployment rate in Regional NSW was 3.2% in September 2023.

Lending Environment

New Household Loan Commitments: New household loan commitments in NSW fell by 22.6% in the year to September 2023, compared to a 4.0% decrease the previous year.
First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to owner occupier first home buyers dropped by 12.9% in September 2023, representing 19.5% of all owner occupier loans.
Cash Rate: The official cash rate was set at 4.35% in December 2023, with a forecast of 3.85% by the end of 2025.

New Builds and Population

New Builds

Building Approvals: Annual building approvals in NSW fell by 12.4% in September 2023 to 46,826 additional dwellings, compared to a 16.8% decrease a year earlier.

Population

Regional Population Growth: Regional NSW's population increased by 0.9% to 2.9 million in the year to June 2022, with a projected annual growth rate of 1.3% to 2032.
Inner vs Outer Regional: Inner regional areas saw a 0.9% annual population change, while outer regional areas recorded a 0.2% change.

Market Forecast

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
NSW Economic Growth	4.4%	2.2%	1.4%	0.3%	2.4%	1.4%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
Price Performance	30%	14%	-5%	-3%	-1%	-3%
Rental Market	13%	9%	3%	2%	3%	3%

Key Contacts

Michelle Ciesielski - Residential Research
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6659
Grant Bulpett - Residential Site Sales
Email: grant.bulpett@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 1555 8226
Sally Edwardsen - Franchise Partnerships
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6845
Erin van Tuil - Residential
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 0932 5700
Chris Hill - Valuations
Email: chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 3880 7249