2023-10-01-莱坊-Regional_SA_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_651kb

报告摘要

Regional SA Residential Insight Summary - Q3 2023

Core Content

Knight Frank's Q3 2023 report provides an analysis of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in South Australia (SA), highlighting the region's resilience and performance despite broader economic challenges.

Key Market Trends

Rental Growth: Despite a rise in vacancy rates, rental growth in Regional SA remains strong.
- Vacancy Rate: 1.8% in June 2023, up 17 bps from the previous quarter.
- Rental Yields: Gross rental yields increased by 9 bps to 5.25%.
- Rental Growth: Median weekly rents for houses rose by 8.1% annually, reaching $465 per week.
Sales Performance:
- Sales Volume: Trended down by 13.4% in the year ending June 2023, with 2,531 houses sold.
- Days on Market: Increased to 106 days in the June 2023 quarter, up from 100 days one quarter earlier.
- Price Growth: Annual capital value growth reached 10.9%, but slowed to -5.4% in the last quarter, with a median house value of $495,000.
Lending Environment:
- New Loan Commitments: Increased by 7.1% in the June 2023 quarter, reversing the previous quarter's decline of -4.6%.
- First Home Buyers: Lending commitments for first home buyers rose by 3.7% in June 2023, representing 16.9% of all owner occupier loans.
- Interest Rates:
  - Owner occupier 3-year fixed rates increased by 5 bps to 6.32%.
  - Owner occupier standard variable rates rose by 50 bps to 8.52%.
  - Investor 3-year fixed rates increased by 18 bps to 6.50%.
  - Investor standard variable rates rose by 50 bps to 9.10%.
Economic Outlook:
- Economic Growth: Estimated at 4.2% in 2022, with a forecast of 2.2% in 2025 by Oxford Economics.
- Unemployment Rate: Stood at 4.2% in June 2023, trending 18 bps below the previous quarter.
- Cash Rate Target: Remained at 4.10% for three months, with a forecast to decrease to an average of 3.38% by 2025.

Population and Development

Population:
- Estimated at 403,000 persons in 2022.
- Annual population change was 0.6% in 2022, with a projected 0.1% annual growth by 2041.
- Inner Regional Areas: Annual population change of 1.4%.
- Outer Regional Areas: Annual population change of 0.2%.
New Builds:
- Building approvals for residential dwellings totaled 713 in the quarter to June 2023, representing a 72.5% decline compared to the previous quarter.

Forecast Overview

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023-2025f AVE
Economic Growth	7.6%	4.2%	1.2%	0.5%	2.2%	0.6%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	4.1%	3.4%	3.8%
Price Performance	5%	24%	18%	5%	3%	9%
Rental Market	11%	8%	6%	2%	2%	3%

Sources: Oxford Economics (Economic Growth, Unemployment Rate, Cash Rate Target), Knight Frank Research (Price Performance, Rental Market)

Conclusion

Regional SA continues to show strong capital value growth and stable rental performance, even in the face of higher vacancy rates and a slowing economy. While sales volume has declined, the market remains attractive for investors due to the resilience in property values and rental yields. The lending environment is gradually tightening, with rising interest rates affecting both owner occupiers and investors. Population growth is expected to remain modest, with a focus on inner regional areas. The forecast indicates a potential slowdown in price growth but continued moderate rental increases over the next few years.

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski - +612 9036 6659 - michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Residential Site Sales: Oliver Totani - +618 8233 5210 - oliver.totani@au.knightfrank.com
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen - +612 9036 6845 - sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Residential: Erin van Tuil - +612 9036 6699 - erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes - +612 9036 700 - luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Valuations: Alistair Carpenter - +612 9036 62 - al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com