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Regional Victoria Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a quarterly analysis of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in Regional Victoria, highlighting trends, performance metrics, and future forecasts. The data is sourced from Knight Frank Research and Oxford Economics, offering insights into economic conditions, lending environments, new builds, population changes, and market dynamics.

Market Trends and Performance

Sales and Price Performance

• Sales Volume: Annual sales volume decreased by 20.2% in the year ending September 2023, with 24,405 houses sold.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for a house was 82 days in September 2023, compared to 73 days in June and 50 days in September 2022.
• House Values: Average house values fell by 4.6% in the year to September 2023, but rose by 0.2% in the last quarter to $657,000.
• Price Forecast: Knight Frank Research forecasts a -4% decline in average prices at the end of 2023, followed by -2% in 2024 and 1% in 2025.

Rental Market Dynamics

Rental Growth

• Weekly Rental Growth: Annual average weekly rental growth in Regional Victoria was 2.2% in September 2023.
• Quarterly Rental Change: House rents fell by 1.1% in the September 2023 quarter, but increased by 2.2% annually to $455 per week.
• Vacancy Rate: Total residential rental vacancy was 2.1% in September 2023, up by 10 bps over the past year.
• Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields increased by 8 bps in the past year, averaging 4.18% in September 2023.
• Rental Forecast: Knight Frank Research predicts a -2% decline in rents by the end of 2023, with 1% growth expected in 2024 and 1% in 2025.

Economic and Lending Environment

Economic Growth

• Victorian Economic Growth: The Victorian economy grew by 4.6% in 2022, with a forecast of 3.1% in 2025 (Oxford Economics).
• Unemployment Rate: Regional Victoria unemployment rate was 2.5% in September 2023.

Lending Environment

• New Household Loan Commitments: New household loan commitments across Victoria fell by 25.2% in the year to September 2023, compared to a 9.4% decline the previous year.
• First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to owner occupier first home buyers dropped by 19.0% in September 2023, down from 9.4% a year earlier. This group represented 26.1% of all owner occupier loans in Victoria in September 2023.
• Official Cash Rate: The official cash rate was set at 4.35% in December 2023, with a forecast of 3.85% by the end of 2025 (Oxford Economics).

New Builds and Population

New Builds

• Building Approvals: Annual building approvals in Victoria fell by 15.5% to 52,954 additional dwellings in September 2023, compared to a 9.8% decline the previous year.

Population Growth

• Regional Population: Regional Victoria's population increased by 1.1% to 1.6 million persons in the year to June 2022.
• Projected Growth: The population is projected to grow at 1.5% per annum through 2032.
• Inner vs. Outer Regional: Inner regional areas saw 1.2% annual population change, while outer regional Victoria recorded 0.2%.

Residential Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (2021–2025)

Residential Forecast (2021–2025)

Source: Knight Frank Research and Oxford Economics

Contact Information

• Recent Research: Image Link

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
  Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Residential Site Sales: James Thorpe
  Email: james.thorpe@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +614 1451 0071

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edwardsen
  Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil
  Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +614 0932 5700

• Valuations: Chris Hill
  Email: chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +614 3880 7249