2023-10-01-莱坊-Regional_WA_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_659kb

Regional WA Residential Insight Summary - Q3 2023

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q3 2023 report provides an analysis of the residential property market in Regional Western Australia (WA), highlighting trends in sales, rentals, economic conditions, and lending environments. Despite a decline in sales volume and an increase in days on market, capital values in Regional WA have continued to grow, reflecting strong underlying demand and market resilience.

Main Market Trends

• Sales Performance:

  • Annual sales volume decreased by 15.6% to 4,221 houses.
  • Average days on market increased to 78 days in the June 2023 quarter, compared to 72 days one quarter prior.
  • Median house value rose by 2.2% year-on-year to $489,000.
  • The last quarter saw a 0.1% increase in median house values.

• Rental Market:

  • Regional WA recorded a 1.8% vacancy rate in June 2023, up by 17 bps from the previous quarter.
  • Gross rental yields dropped by 1 bp to 6.08%.
  • Rents increased by 12.4% annually, with median rents at $500 per week.
  • Regional WA had the highest average gross rental yield among regional areas in Australia.

Economic and Lending Environment

• Economic Growth:

  • WA's economy is projected to grow at 3.5% by 2025, according to Oxford Economics.
  • Regional WA unemployment was 3.8% in June 2023, showing a 94 bps increase compared to the previous quarter.

• Lending Trends:

  • New household loan commitments in WA rose by 6.6% in the June 2023 quarter, reversing the previous quarter's decline.
  • First home buyer lending commitments fell by 9.8% in June 2023, compared to a 16.5% drop the year before.
  • First home buyers accounted for 21.4% of all owner occupier loans in WA in June 2023.
  • Mortgage rates increased:
    • Owner occupier:
      • 3-year fixed term: +5 bps to 6.32%
      • Standard variable loan: +50 bps to 8.52%
    • Investors:
      • 3-year fixed term: +18 bps to 6.50%
      • Standard variable loan: +50 bps to 9.10%

• Cash Rate Forecast:

  • The official cash rate has remained at 4.10% for three months.
  • Oxford Economics predicts it will decrease to an average of 3.38% by the end of 2025.

Population and Development

• Population Growth:

  • Regional WA population was estimated at 563,500 in 2022.
  • Annual population change was 1.0% in 2022, with a forecast of 0.7% per annum through 2041.
  • Inner regional areas showed 1.6% annual growth, while outer regional areas recorded 0.7%.

• New Builds:

  • Building approvals in WA totaled 419 residential dwellings in the quarter to June 2023, a 86.7% decrease compared to the previous quarter.

Market Forecast

• Price Performance (2021–2025):

  • 2021: +11%
  • 2022: +4%
  • 2023f: -5%
  • 2024f: -4%
  • 2025f: -1%
  • Average (2023–2025): -3%

• Rental Market (2021–2025):

  • 2021: +8%
  • 2022: +17%
  • 2023f: +8%
  • 2024f: +4%
  • 2025f: +1%
  • Average (2023–2025): +4%

Key Contacts

• Michelle Ciesielski – Recent Research

  • Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61290366659

• Tony Delich – Residential Site Sales

  • Email: tony.delich@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61892252528

• Sally Edvardsen – Franchise Partnerships

  • Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61290366845

• Erin van Tuil – Residential

  • Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61290366699

• Luke Hayes – Residential Project Sales

  • Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61290366700

• Alistair Carpenter – Valuations

  • Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +6129036662