2024-01-24-莱坊-Gold_Coast_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_4页_859kb

Gold Coast Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a quarterly analysis of the residential market in the Gold Coast Local Government Area (LGA) as of September 2023, focusing on sales, rental performance, and new builds. It also includes economic and demographic forecasts for the region and broader Queensland.

Mainstream Sales Performance

• Sales Volume:
  • 15,419 residential homes (houses and apartments) were sold in the year ending September 2023.
  • A 16.2% decline compared to the previous year.
• Days on Market:
  • The average days on market for a home in September 2023 was 54 days.
  • This is 60 days compared to three months earlier and 47 days compared to one year ago.

Price Performance

• Median Residential Value:
  • Reached $841,500 in September 2023.
• Annual Price Growth:
  • 5.9% increase in residential property prices from September 2022 to September 2023.
• Forecasted Price Growth:
  • 7% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 4% in 2025.

Rental Performance

• Vacancy Rate:
  • 1.2% total residential rental vacancy in September 2023.
  • 60 bps increase compared to the previous year.
• Gross Rental Yields:
  • Increased by 14 bps to 4.83% in the year ending September 2023.
• Weekly Rents:
  • $730 per week in September 2023, with an annual increase of 6.6%.
• Forecasted Rental Growth:
  • 6% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and 3% in 2025.

New Builds

• Building Approvals:
  • 1,892 additional dwellings approved in September 2023.
  • 28.2% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2022.
• Breakdown:
  • 1,091 houses and 3,436 apartments approved.
  • 22.0% lower house approvals and 28.8% lower apartment approvals compared to the year earlier.

Key Economic and Demographic Indicators

Established Houses

• Median House Value: $972,000 in September 2023.
• Annual Price Growth: 4.1%.
• Annual Rental Growth: 5.3%.
• Gross Rental Yield: 4.50% in September 2023.
• Days on Market: 54 days in September 2023, 60 days three months earlier, and 44 days one year ago.

Established Apartments

• Median Apartment Value: $660,000 in September 2023.
• Annual Price Growth: 10.0%.
• Annual Rental Growth: 9.2%.
• Gross Rental Yield: Increased by 20 bps to 5.30% in the year ending September 2023.
• Days on Market: 53 days in September 2023, 60 days one quarter earlier, and 51 days one year ago.

Residential Market Forecast

Source: Knight Frank Research

Key Points and Trends

• Rental Growth Pauses: Despite continued price increases, rental growth paused in the last quarter for both established houses and apartments.
• Vacancy Rates Remain Low: Total residential vacancy at 1.2% in September 2023, indicating strong demand.
• Gross Rental Yields Rise: Yields increased by 14 bps for the entire market and 20 bps for apartments, suggesting rental growth outpaced price increases.
• Sales Decline: Both house and apartment sales volumes decreased, with a 15.3% drop in house sales and 17.2% drop in apartment sales.
• Market Imbalance: Lower sales volumes are attributed to fewer listings, not a lack of demand.
• Economic Outlook: Queensland is expected to grow at 3.3% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2025, while the Gold Coast unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly.
• Interest Rates: The official cash rate is expected to remain at 3.9% in 2025, which may influence buyer behavior and investment decisions.

Conclusion

The Gold Coast residential market in Q4 2023 shows a shift from strong rental growth to a pause, while property prices continue to rise. The market remains tight with low vacancy rates, and gross rental yields have improved, making it an attractive investment area. However, declining sales volumes and reduced building approvals suggest a slowdown in new supply, which may impact future market dynamics. Economic forecasts indicate continued growth in Queensland, with the Gold Coast experiencing moderate population and employment trends.