2024-03-25-第一太平戴维斯-Savills大湾区写字楼指数（英）_10页_5mb

The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index Summary

Core Content

The Greater Bay Area (GBA) Grade A Office Index is a benchmark report that tracks the performance of office markets across nine mainland cities and Hong Kong. It provides insights into rental and price trends, total occupancy costs, and overall market dynamics, aimed at helping market participants, investors, developers, landlords, and office occupiers make informed decisions.

Main Points

1. Index Overview

• The rental index and price index reflect changes in rents and prices over a six-month period for a basket of Grade A office properties on a like-for-like basis.
• The total occupancy cost includes net effective rent, property management fees, and related taxes.

2. Market Performance (End-2023)

• The rental index decreased by 5.3% YoY.
• The price index also declined by 5.2% YoY.
• The GBA average vacancy rate rose by 3.2 ppts YoY to 27.2%.

3. Supply and Demand Dynamics

• A combined leasable GFA of 2.2 million sqm was completed in 2023, expanding the regional office stock by 6.3% YoY to 35.6 million sqm.
• Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong accounted for 80% of new completions.
• The net take-up increased by 21.7% YoY, but was 54.3% lower than the average over the previous five years, at 466,790 sqm.

4. Occupier Behavior

• Most office occupiers adopted cost-saving strategies, leading to relocation and downsizing.
• Corporations remained cautious in their real estate strategies due to economic uncertainties and operational challenges.

5. Sectoral Demand

• Finance and professional services remained the main demand generators.
• IT and retail & trade sectors saw softened demand, with notable decreases in Shenzhen.
• The sluggish stock market in Hong Kong negatively impacted financial institutions' leasing activity.

6. Market Outlook (2024)

• The GBA GDP growth is expected to be between 5% and 7% YoY in 2024.
• The office leasing and investment markets are anticipated to face persistent challenges due to new supply pipelines and fragile demand.
• Rental and price movements are expected to remain at the lower end for the next six to twelve months.
• Government initiatives such as the Three-Year Action Plan are expected to boost economic growth and improve the office market outlook.

Key Information

• Base Years:
  • Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou use 2009 as the base year.
  • Other cities use 2013.
• Macau Exclusion: Macau is temporarily omitted from the report.
• GDP Growth (2023): The GBA total GDP reached RMB 13,707.1 billion, an increase of 4.2% YoY.
• Occupancy Cost Decline:
  • Zhuhai saw the largest decrease at -6.6% YoY.
  • Hong Kong and Guangzhou also experienced significant declines at -5.4% and -5.2%, respectively.

Conclusion

Despite the economic recovery in the GBA, the office market remains challenging, with rental and price indexes continuing their downward trend. The increase in new supply and occupier caution have contributed to higher vacancy rates and reduced leasing activity. While finance and professional services remain strong, IT and retail sectors have seen weaker demand. The market outlook for 2024 is guarded, with economic growth expectations and government support expected to provide some relief, but challenges are likely to persist in the short to medium term.

Contact Information

• Carlby Xie (Head of Savills Southern China Research)
  Email: carlby.xie@savills.com.cn
  Tel: +8620 3665 4874

• Sam Lai (Senior Director, Head of Savills Southern China Commercial)
  Email: sam.lai@savills.com.cn
  Tel: +8620 3665 4830

• Aborven Luo (Senior Director, Head of Savills Shenzhen Commercial)
  Email: aborven.luo@savills.com.cn
  Tel: +86755 8436 7099

Global and Regional Offices

• Savills - London: 33 Margaret Street, W1G 0JD, London
  Tel: 44 (0) 20 7499 8644

• Savills - China:

  • Shanghai: 25/F, Two ICC, No.288 South Shaanxi Road, Xuihui District
    Tel: 86 021 6391 6688
  • Beijing: 1201 Tower 1, China Central Place, 81 Jianguo Road, Chaoyang District
    Tel: 86 10 5925 2288
  • Guangzhou: Suite 1301, R&F Center, No.10 Huaxia Road, Zhujiang New Town
    Tel: 86 20 3665 4800
  • Shenzhen: Unit01-03,9/F, China Resources Tower, No.2666 Keyuan South Road
    Tel: 86 755 8436 7000
  • Chengdu: Room 4609, Tower 1, International Finance Square
    Tel: 86 28 6737 3737
  • Nanjing: Room 31D, No.1 Plaza, Zhujiang Road
    Tel: 86 25 5772 0903
  • Hangzhou: Unit 15A08, Raffles City Hangzhou Tower 2
    Tel: 86 571 8102 0222
  • Wuhan: Unit 08-10, 27/F, CITIC PACIFIC Mansion
    Tel: 86 27 5930 5566
  • Changsha: Unit 16, 26th Floor, T1IFS
    Tel: 86 731 8987 0177
  • Tianjin: Unit 05-07, 46th Floor, Tianjin World Financial Center Office Tower
    Tel: 86 22 5830 8877
  • Dalian: Unit 911S, Xiwang Tower
    Tel: 86 411 3966 8988
  • Shenyang: Unit 2706 CR Building
    Tel: 86 24 8398 5066
  • Xiamen: Room 2601, Fortune Center
    Tel: 86 592 806 4608
  • Zhuhai: Room 2204, 22/F, Tower B, China Overseas Building
    Tel: 86 756 862 2600
  • Haikou: Unit A, 9/F, The Form Plaza
    Tel: 86 898 3638 4200
  • Fuzhou: Room 1706, Rongqiao Center
    Tel: 86 591 8381 6556
  • Chongqing: Room 1601, Floor 16, Unit 2, Guohua Financial Center
    Tel: 86 23 8900 3000
  • Xi'an: 17D, Building A, Zhongjing Technology Square
    Tel: 86 29 8187 2288