20250629-国泰期货-纸浆周度报告_25页_2mb

The paper pulp weekly report dated June 29, 2025, provides an analysis of the current market conditions based on inventory levels, pricing, fundamental factors, and operational recommendations. Key points are summarized below:

Inventory Status:

• Domestic main ports, including Qingdao, Changshu, and Ganggang, showed declining inventories, with a combined total at a yearly high but trending downward.
• Global pulp supplier inventories increased in days of supply, indicating better coverage, but global export volumes rose in May.
• Import data shows needle pulp imports decreased, while broadleaf imports increased, reflecting mixed trends.

Market Prices:

• Pulp futures prices experienced a sharp decline, eroding market sentiment and spot prices.
• Basis differences (like silver birch vs. Russian pine) indicate tightening spreads, supporting lower prices; however, recent adjustments may slow further losses.

Fundamental Analysis:

• Supply aspects: High port inventories create downward pressure, and upcoming shipments from Brazil could worsen liquidity. Imports of needle pulp dropped, while broadleaf showed gains.
• Demand is weak, with low paper production capacity utilization across sectors like white and brown paper, and reduced buyer interest due to economic pressures.
• Import profitability is positive for needle pulp but faces headwinds from lower prices and strong domestic competition.

Overall, the market outlook is bearish, characterized by a combination of high inventories, soft demand, and price volatility.

Investment Recommendations:

• The pulp market is expected to remain震荡偏弱 (oscillate and weaken), driven by persistent supply excess and subdued demand. This could limit further price declines due to some import cost supports, but risks persist, especially if basis markets stabilize.