中国内地物业数据监测：挂牌价指数创出新低；香港：房价环比下跌1.2%

Summary

Mainland China

• Leading Indicators:

  • Centaline tier-1 secondary asking price index hits a new low (19.2), reflecting persistent downward pricing pressure.
  • Manager confidence index declines to 46.3, remaining near the bottom of its range.
  • Property agency web traffic improves slightly, indicating a marginal rebound in online interest.
  • 60-city primary registrations drop 17% YoY, but 12-city secondary sales softened to -1% YoY.

• Market Dynamics:

  • Southbound inflows to mainland stocks slightly positive, with companies like A-Living and COPH gaining.
  • Share prices for mainland developers are volatile; stocks like Shimao underperform due to bond conversions, while others like C&D and Yuexiu show stability.

• Credit View:

  • Chinese property developers receive liquidity support from government entities.
  • Notable risks include delivery delays and debt impairments, with restrictions on bond ratings.

Hong Kong

• Residential Market:

  • Price indexes for second-hand homes decline, partly due to oversupply and adverse weather.
  • New launches are struggling with low absorption rates, despite premium pricing in scenic areas.
  • Secondary transactions in major estates increase, supporting price stabilization.

• Tourism & Flows:

  • Net tourist arrivals minus resident departures point to subdued market confidence, though government interventions aim to boost demand.

• Share Prices:

  • Developers and landlords see divergent performance; focus on preferred sectors like REITs and landlords (e.g., Henderson, Wharf REIT).
  • Short interest elevated, suggesting volatile sentiment.

Valuation & Ratings

• Mainland China:

  • OW: CR Land, CR Mixc, Jinmao; specialty: Longfor.
  • Neutral: Most POEs, distressed names; underweight risky names like Shimao.

• Hong Kong:

  • OW: HK Land, Henderson Land, Link REIT.
  • Neutral/NR: Most developers.

Key Risks

• Government stimulus for SOEs supported by low yields, but market sentiment remains cautious.
• Overhyped launches fail in pricing power due to high inventory; tightening regulations & macroeconomic risks also constrain growth.

**End of Summary**