中国内地物业数据监测_挂牌价指数创出新低；香港_房价环比下跌1.2_23页_646kb

Asia Pacific Corporate Research

Property Data Monitor Summary

1. Mainland China Market

• Price Indices:
  • Centaline tier-1 cities' secondary asking price index at 19.2 (new low since May 2024, down 0.3 pts).
  • Primary sales volume across 60 cities fell 17% YoY (vs. -21% prior week).
• Leading Indicators:
  • Manager confidence index 46.3 (down from 47.3, remains below 50).
  • Secondary sales softened to -1% YoY in 12 cities (previously flat).
• Sales Trends:
  • 60-city primary registrations -22% YoY (week ending 10 Aug 2025).
  • 12-city secondary sales improved to -1% YoY, with partial weather-related rebound in prior week.
• Stocks Performance:
  • Sector rose 3% last week (vs. HSI +1%).
  • Top picks: CR Land (+6%), Jinmao (+6%); underperformers: Shimao (-36%) due to bond conversion, Yuexiu (-2%).

2. Hong Kong Market Update

• Price Indices:
  • Secondary home price index CCL at -1.2% W/W (largest drop since Sep 2024).
  • Centa Valuation Index CVI flat at 62.6 (banks maintaining valuation).
  • Secondary transactions in top 35 estates +35% W/W to 62 units.
• New Launches:
  • Victoria Voyage units launched at HK$29.6K psf, +15% discounted from projections.
  • Average sell-through rate 83%, but ASP decreased by 1% YoY.
• Tourism & Migration:
  • Net tourist arrivals vs. departures +1.0% Wk-Wk (previously -209%).
  • Resident departures -0.03% Wk-Wk.
• Stocks Performance:
  • Sector fell 2% last week (HSI +1%).
  • Champion REIT, NWD & CK Asset (+6% each) outperformed; Swire (-4%), JM (-3%) underperformed.

3. Credit & Valuation

• Vanke: Received ¥1.7bn loan from Shenzhen Metro; expect liquidity support.
• Bond Recommendations:
  • Vanke '27: OW, YTM 13.2%, preference due to high yield.
  • Greentown '28: Neutral, YTM 7.2% (may stabilize at current levels).
• Developer Valuation:
  • SOEs: P/E 14.1x, dividend yield 9.3%.
  • Distressed POEs: High beta with -4% YTD performance.

4. Southbound Holdings

• HK-listed developers: Avg. s/hldg -0.6%, led by CR Land (+0.3%), Yuexiu (+2%).
• Property Managers: Avg. +0.6%, boosted by A-Living (+1.8%).

5. Share Price & Valuation

• Developers: SOEs (CR Land, Jinmao) vs. Distressed names (Shimao), driven by yield gap.
• Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs & Landlords): Top picks HK Land (+38%), Link REIT (+39%).
• Key Ratios: Mainland China average P/E 14.8x, dividend yield 5.2%.

Notes

• Declining prices in Hong Kong attributed to supply-demand balance; large launches diluting pricing.
• Short interest rising to 4-month high, with Hong Kong property stocks -0.03% Wk-Wk.