20151023-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_786kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 22 October 2015, highlighting recent price movements, company news, and analyst reports. It includes information on major oil and gas prices, stock performance, and valuation metrics for companies across Asia, India, Japan, and other regions.
Key Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Increased by 0.5% to USD48.08/b
- WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 0.4% to USD45.38/b
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Decreased by 0.4% to USD44.85/barrel
- China Daqing Spot: Decreased by 0.9% to USD41.96/barrel
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Decreased by 0.7% to USD2.39/MMBtu
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Decreased by 0.9% to USD7.03/MMBtu
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Increased by 0.1% to USD58.73/barrel
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Increased by 0.4% to USD59.16/gallon
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Increased by 0.4% to USD242.45/mt
- Gold: Decreased by 0.1% to USD1,166.05/Oz
- USD-CNY: Increased by 0.1% to 6.36
- DJI: Increased by 1.9% to 17,489.16
- S&P 500: Increased by 1.7% to 2,052.51
News Headlines
-
Santos quarterly sales slide 24% as producers face price slump
- Santos Ltd. reported a 24% decline in third-quarter sales due to a drop in energy prices.
- Revenue fell to A$808 million from A$1.06 billion a year ago.
- Forecast capital expenditure for 2015 was reduced by 10% to A$1.8 billion.
- The company rejected a $5.15 billion takeover offer as too low and "opportunistic."
- Global exploration and production investments dropped by 20% this year according to the International Energy Agency.
-
Sinopec's October gasoil exports may set year high
- Sinopec may export 440,000 tonnes of gasoil in October, up 13.7% month on month.
- The company provides subsidies and reduces domestic ex-refinery prices to encourage exports.
- This move helps to ease stock pressure and supports the domestic market.
-
CNOOC Ltd confirms Caofedian discovery
- CNOOC confirmed a mid-size oilfield discovery in Bohai Bay.
- The Caofeidian 6-4-1 well reached a depth of about 3100 metres and tested at around 5750 barrels per day of light oil.
- The discovery is a significant breakthrough and provides guidance for future exploration.
-
BP Signs $10bn LNG Supply Deal with China Huadian
- BP signed a 20-year LNG supply agreement with China Huadian for up to 1 million tonnes per year.
- The deal supports China's energy diversification and economic growth.
- It also helps reduce emissions through the use of lower carbon fuels.
-
BP, CNPC to Jointly Explore Shale Gas in China's Sichuan Basin
- BP and CNPC signed a strategic cooperation agreement for shale gas exploration and production in the Sichuan Basin.
- The agreement includes future fuel retailing ventures in China and other international partnerships.
- This is expected to add several billion dollars in future trade for BP.
Our Latest Reports
Yinson Holdings
- Secures 2nd extension for FPSO Adoon with a 3-year tenure worth USD129m.
- A growth stock with resilient earnings and strong appetite for new FPSO projects.
- Reiterate BUY with a target price of MYR4.35.
- A special dividend is likely post sale of non O&G business.
UMW Oil & Gas
- Naga 8 secures a charter at sub-USD100k DCR but has low utilisation.
- 75% of rigs are idle, leading to higher net loss forecasts.
- Reiterate SELL with a target price of MYR0.80.
- Based on 0.8x EV/replacement value peg.
Icon Offshore
- Terminates vessel order with Danish Yachts and receives MYR13.7m in reimbursement.
- May consider terminating other OSV orders if weak market conditions persist.
- Maintain SELL with a target price of MYR0.25.
Perisai Petroleum
- Proposes a 10% private placement to raise about MYR40m for debt repayment.
- A prudent move due to low cash reserves in the downturn.
- Maintain SELL with a target price of MYR0.22.
Company Valuations (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (22-Oct) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 6.22 | 4.80 | 241.5 | 84.5 | 27.3 | 47.6 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.61 | 6.00 | 95.1 | 67.5 | 13.6 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.89 | 11.70 | 51.2 | 91.3 | 16.4 | 19.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.41 | 7.70 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (22-Oct) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 253.5 | NR | 33.3 | 18.1 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 955.0 | NR | 47.5 | 53.0 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 154.3 | 198.00 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.9 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 900.6 | NR | 10.0 | 22.2 | 20.7 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 15.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 801.8 | NR | 4.2 | 23.9 | 20.5 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.31 | 11.25 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 16.7 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petroleum | PNX PM | Buy | 3.50 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 67,100 | NR | 6.7 | 20.3 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 15.6 | 1.4 | 2.9 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 108,500 | NR | 8.9 | 35.8 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 2.7 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 48,250 | NR | 4.0 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 79.70 | NR | 23.4 | 7.1 | 19.5 | 21.0 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 14.9 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| Bangchak Petroleum | BCP TB | Buy | 36.00 | 41.00 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 5.0 |
| PTT Global Chemical | PTTGC TB | Buy | 59.50 | 87.00 | 7.5 | 22.2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 11.3 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 269.0 | 395.00 | 21.6 | 60.3 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 13.6 | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 55.8 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 13.6 | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.6 | 12.5 | - | 9.2 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
Analysts
- Howard Wong: HK/CHINA, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah: INDIA, (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah: INDONESIA, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung: MALAYSIA, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Michael Bengson: PHILIPPINES, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong: SINGAPORE, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai: THAILAND, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen: VIETNAM, (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh: VIETNAM, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Additional Notes
- All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under MayBank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
- Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
- The document is sourced from Bloomberg and Maybank KE.
- It is updated daily and shared for free.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
