20140919-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_433kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 19 September 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the oil and gas market, focusing on price movements, company news, and valuation comparisons across various Asian and international markets. It includes updates on key players, market dynamics, and analyst ratings.

Major Oil & Gas Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Down by 1.3% to $97.66, with a 1-day change of -1.31 USD.
WTI Crude Oil: Down by 1.4% to $93.07, with a 1-day change of -1.35 USD.
Henry Hub Natural Gas: Down by 2.6% to $3.91, with a 1-day change of -0.10 USD.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Not available for 1-day change, with a 1-month forward price of $15.95.
China LPG Spot Prices: Expected to gain support in 4Q14 due to refinery maintenance, reducing output by 12%.

News Headlines

Nigeria: The oil minister was summoned by the parliament due to ongoing strikes at the Department of Petroleum Resources and state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp.
China: Shandong independent refineries operated at 43.3% capacity, up from 42.9% a week ago.
Rosneft: Hired Gazprom's deputy head of LNG exports, signaling its intent to become an LNG exporter.
OMV: Considering a change in management and strategy after a review initiated in 1Q14.
Shanghai Fuel: Halted operations due to debt disputes, with frozen bank accounts and a USD16.3m debt to banks.
Halliburton: Slashed head count in Norway due to reduced drilling-related demand.

Analysts Contact Information

Howard Wong (Hong Kong/China): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah (India): (91) 2266232601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah (Indonesia): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung (Malaysia): (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
Bianca Solema (Philippines): (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
Laura Dy-Liacco (Philippines): (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
Yeast Chee Keong (Singapore): (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai (Thailand): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (Vietnam): (84) 844555888x8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (Vietnam): (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Company Valuation Comparison (Asia)

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price (18-Sep)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	P/E (2014E)	P/E (2015E)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2015E)	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Buy	10.56	11.50	240.5	113.8	11.6	10.4	5.5	5.0	11.3	1.3	3.9
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	7.06	6.65	103.8	95.9	9.5	9.0	5.1	4.8	11.7	1.1	4.2
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Hold	14.26	14.44	82.1	116.7	9.3	8.8	3.8	3.5	15.1	1.3	3.8
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Buy	325.75	443.00	10.1	13.1	4.5	4.3	3.1	2.9	23.6	4.5	4.3
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	23.00	23.50	14.0	8.7	27.3	26.3	15.5	14.9	16.4	4.2	2.6
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	114,000	103,000	10.2	1.7	17.1	15.8	10.8	10.1	34.2	5.3	2.6
Asian Refiners Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	15.0	13.8	8.5	6.7	9.6	1.4	3.3

Key Insights

Price Volatility: Crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) and natural gas (Henry Hub) experienced declines, while LNG prices showed a positive trend in the long-term forward price.
Refinery Maintenance: Refinery maintenance in China is expected to support LPG prices in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Strategic Moves: Rosneft is expanding its LNG export capabilities, and OMV is considering changes in management and strategy.
Debt Issues: Shanghai Fuel halted operations due to financial difficulties and debt disputes.
Valuation Metrics: The document includes P/E, EV/EBITDA, and ROE metrics for various companies, with some showing higher valuations and others being under review or not rated.
Market Trends: Analysts remain positive on certain segments like FPSO and OSV, and recommend buying specific companies based on their market position and future potential.

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