20140603-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_571kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 03 June 2014
Core Market Overview
The oil and gas market experienced mixed performance in the week ending 02 June 2014. Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.5%, while the Henry Hub price rose by 1.0% compared to the previous week. Other key prices and indexes also showed varying trends in the short-term and long-term.
News Highlights
Indonesia & South Korea
- Indonesia signed a deal with South Korea to co-develop multiple gas projects, including a coalbed methane project, an FLNG terminal, an onshore LNG project, and a USD2.8 billion synthetic natural gas plant.
Sinopec
- Increased East China ex-factory butadiene price by CNY100/tonne to CNY8,800/tonne, driven by strong downstream demand.
Leyshon Energy
- The company's share price fell by 4% after announcing plans to develop shale gas in China, with a decision on the USD17 million exploration program pending.
Gazprom
- Approved a one-week delay in Ukrainian gas payments as Ukraine repaid USD786 million of its gas debt.
- Gazprom Neft started production at the Badra oilfield in Iraq after a delayed commencement due to security concerns.
Pandora LNG Project
- A feasibility study by China's Wilson suggests the project is technically and commercially suitable for offshore or near-shore development.
Roc Oil
- Signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Dialog in Malaysia to sell its 20% stake in the D35, D21, and J4 fields, leaving it with 30% interest in the PSC.
Investment Reports
UMW Holdings
- KE Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR12.44
- Outlook: Improved fundamentals across Auto, O&G, and M&E divisions.
- Valuation: Shariah-compliant, undemanding, and with decent net yields (4+%).
Bumi Armada
- KE Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR4.55
- Performance: 1Q14 net profits fell short of forecasts; proposed a 1-for-2 right and bonus issue.
- Adjustments: FY14/15 net earnings cut by 11%/12%, Target Price lowered by 9%.
Vard Holdings
- KE Rating: BUY
- Target Price: SGD1.27
- Performance: Secured two contracts worth NOK1.3 billion, with one exceeding NOK1 billion for island offshore.
- Order Win: YTD order win of NOK6.8 billion accounts for 53% of FY14E forecasts.
- Valuation: Based on 1.4x FY15E P/BV.
Perdana Petroleum
- KE Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR2.55
- Performance: 1Q14 net profit met forecasts, showing steady rise in utilisation rates.
- Valuation: Preferred OSV pick with strong visible earnings growth and improving financials.
Asian Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (02-Jun) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 9.25 | NR | 222.1 | 93.9 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 7.03 | NR | 97.6 | 100.6 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.3 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 13.30 | NR | 76.6 | 99.7 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 4.3 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 399.55 | NR | 57.8 | 31.8 | 14.1 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 16.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,082.20 | NR | 59.2 | 74.9 | 15.3 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 344.95 | 443.00 | 11.1 | 16.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 555.55 | NR | 6.8 | 14.5 | 21.4 | 15.5 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 423.45 | NR | 2.4 | 10.8 | 28.6 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 12.00 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 30.0 | 34.3 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 6.38 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 14.5 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Asia Oil Service Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (02-Jun) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 5.90 | NR | 1.7 | 6.0 | 26.3 | 22.9 | 13.0 | 10.6 | 18.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 19.12 | NR | 12.5 | 24.4 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.68 | NR | 0.3 | 0.6 | 53.1 | 20.0 | 24.2 | 15.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.60 | NR | 1.0 | 4.7 | 17.6 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 14.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.83 | NR | 0.8 | 2.6 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.94 | NR | 5.1 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 26.1 | 1.5 | 4.6 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 4.72 | NR | 0.9 | 2.9 | 19.0 | 15.7 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 17.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.59 | 4.55 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 24.4 | 22.3 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 10.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.70 | 3.90 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 45.8 | 31.4 | 30.6 | 27.8 | 15.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | buy | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 25.7 | 34.9 | 19.4 | 21.4 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | buy | 1.77 | 2.55 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 20.5 | 13.3 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | buy | 4.02 | 5.15 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 35.2 | 30.9 | 18.5 | 19.0 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 0.2 |
| Vard Holdings | VARD SP | buy | 1.12 | 1.27 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 17.5 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Yangzijiang Shipbuilding | YZJSGD SP | hold | 1.04 | 1.19 | 3.2 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 4.8 |
Analyst Contacts
| Country | Analyst | Phone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HK/CHINA | Howard Wong | (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk |
| INDIA | Jigar Shah | (91) 2266232601 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in |
| INDONESIA | Pandu Anugrah | (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id |
| MALAYSIA | Liaw Thong Jung | (603) 22978688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com |
| PHILIPPINES | Bianca Solema | (63) 28498835 | bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com |
| PHILIPPINES | Laura Dy-Liacco | (63) 28498840 | laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com |
| SINGAPORE | Yeast Chee Keong | (65) 6432 1460 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg |
| THAILAND | Sutthichai Kumworachai | (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th |
| VIETNAM | Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen | (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn |
| VIETNAM | Truong Quang Binh | (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn |
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