20140624-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_578kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 24 June 2014
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market in the Asia-Pacific region as of 23 June 2014, including price movements, recent news, and analyst reports. It highlights key developments in the energy sector, including price changes, exploration activities, and company valuations.
Major Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Last price: USD114.12, 1-day change: -0.69, 1-week change: -0.6%, 1-month change: +3.9%
- WTI Crude Oil: Last price: USD106.17, 1-day change: -0.66, 1-week change: -0.1%, 1-month change: +2.6%
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Last price: USD111.28, 1-day change: +0.02, 1-week change: +2.0%, 1-month change: +4.2%
- China Daqing Spot: Last price: USD113.28, 1-day change: -0.04, 1-week change: +1.8%, 1-month change: +2.2%
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Last price: USD4.45, 1-day change: -0.09, 1-week change: -1.9%, 1-month change: -5.6%
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Last price: USD13.80, 1-month change: -4.2%
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Last price: USD120.89, 1-day change: +0.16, 1-week change: +1.2%, 1-month change: +2.3%
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Last price: USD125.27, 1-day change: +0.00, 1-week change: +1.6%, 1-month change: +2.5%
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Last price: USD634.12, 1-day change: +3.09, 1-week change: +2.0%, 1-month change: +2.4%
- Gold: Last price: USD1,314.52, 1-day change: -0.30, 1-week change: +3.3%, 1-month change: +1.7%
- USD-CNY: 1-day change: 0.00, 1-week change: 0.0%, 1-month change: -0.2%
- DJI: Last price: 16,937.26, 1-day change: -9.82, 1-week change: -0.1%, 1-month change: +2.0%
- S&P 500: Last price: 1,962.61, 1-day change: -0.26, 1-week change: 0.0%, 1-month change: +3.3%
Key News Highlights
- China's NDRC raises fuel prices: Gasoline and diesel prices were increased by CNY165 and CNY160 per tonne, following a previous increase of CNY70 per tonne on 24 May.
- Nam Cheong builds support barges: The company is constructing two support barges for USD84 million for Malaysia's Perdana Petroleum, marking its largest ever for Malaysia.
- Stateoil spuds second wildcat: Despite Greenpeace complaints, Stateoil has started drilling a second wildcat well in the 7325/1-1 area.
- Pura Vida Energy discovers new plays: The company has found significant plays at the Nkembe project off Gabon.
- KCA Deutag wins BSP rig contract: The UK-based company has secured a new land rig contract in Brunei.
- Mubadala starts exploration in Gulf of Thailand: Mubadala, a joint venture, has initiated drilling in Block G11/48.
- China's Taiyuan Heavy wins jack-up order: The company is building a jack-up for a client, expected to be delivered in June 2015.
- CNOOC's Hainan LNG terminal to start operations: The terminal is set to begin commercial operations in August with a capacity of 2mtpa.
Analyst Reports
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR5.30
- Key Points: Core net profit in line with expectations, secured two EPCIC contracts totaling MYR1.3 billion, backlog now at MYR30 billion.
PetroChina
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: HKD11.50
- Key Points: Expected to benefit from the Selldown of the W2E pipeline. Potential for structural changes in the energy sector due to reforms.
Sinopec
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: HKD6.85
- Key Points: Lacks catalysts for further re-rating. Private capital utilization is optimistic but long-term.
CNOOC
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: HKD14.34
- Key Points: Uninspiring earnings outlook unless oil prices rise. CAGR is low due to cost inflation.
NewOcean Energy
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: HKD8.88
- Key Points: Strong growth in auto LNG segment, expanding alliance in Guangdong. Earnings are 2H heavy due to bunkering margin expansion.
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 23-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 900 T/O USDm | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 9.66 | 11.50 | 221.9 | 90.8 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.24 | 6.85 | 98.0 | 85.8 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.76 | 14.34 | 79.3 | 94.8 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 437.60 | NR | 62.3 | 45.2 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,037.95 | NR | 55.9 | 76.5 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 12.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 374.70 | 443.00 | 11.9 | 18.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 23.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 556.65 | NR | 6.7 | 17.5 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 14.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 391.05 | NR | 2.2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 24.30 | 23.50 | 15.0 | 5.2 | 28.9 | 27.8 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 16.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 66.75 | 87.00 | 9.3 | 25.0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 5.2 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.75 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| PTT E&P | PTTEP TB | Buy | 168.50 | 188.00 | 20.6 | 31.5 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| IRPC PCL | IRPC TB | Hold | 3.36 | 3.74 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 32.3 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 66.75 | 87.00 | 9.3 | 25.0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 5.2 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.75 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.26 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 15.3 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 6.31 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 76.80 | NR | 24.4 | 4.5 | 24.8 | 22.7 | 15.5 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 56,100 | NR | 6.2 | 14.0 | 15.9 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 12.1 | 1.4 | 4.5 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 104,000 | NR | 9.5 | 41.6 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 42,100 | NR | 3.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 105,000 | 103,000 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 15.7 | 14.6 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 34.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 |
| Asian Oil & Gas average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 11.7 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 12.5 | 1.4 | 3.5 |
Analyst Contact Information
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 2266232601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 × 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Summary of Key Themes
- China's Energy Reforms: Phase II is underway, with a focus on natural gas liberalization, unconventional gas production, and natural gas vehicles.
- Fuel Price Adjustments: China raised fuel prices by CNY160-165 per tonne, indicating a shift in policy and market dynamics.
- Exploration and Drilling: Multiple companies are advancing exploration and drilling activities, including Stateoil, Pura Vida, and Mubadala.
- Valuation Trends: There is a mix of buy, hold, and sell ratings across the region, with varying price-to-earnings and enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratios.
- Market Outlook: Analysts remain cautious about short-term headwinds but optimistic about long-term fundamentals and growth potential.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
