20140703-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_13页_577kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 03 July 2014
Core Content
This summary provides an overview of the oil and gas market conditions and company-specific updates as of 02 July 2014, including price movements, investment activities, and analyst ratings.
Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Down by 0.9% to $111.24 per barrel, with a 1-day change of -$1.05.
- WTI Crude Oil: Down by 0.8% to $104.48 per barrel, with a 1-day change of -$0.86.
- Henry Hub: Down by 2.2% to $4.36 per MMBtu, with a 1-day change of -$0.10.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Down by 0.0% to $108.82 per barrel, with a 1-day change of -$0.05.
- China Daqing Spot: Down by 0.6% to $109.81 per barrel, with a 1-day change of -$0.67.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Based on ICAPs JKM 1-month forward price, no 1-day change reported.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down by 0.8% to $121.82 per barrel, with a 1-day change of -$1.00.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Down by 0.1% to $123.09 per barrel, with a 1-day change of -$0.10.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down by 0.2% to $617.39 per mt, with a 1-day change of -$1.29.
- Gold: Down by 0.0% to $1,326.28 per oz, with a 1-day change of -$0.18.
- USD-CNY: Up by 0.1% to 6.21, with a 1-day change of +0.01.
- DJI: Up by 0.1% to 16,976.24, with a 1-day change of +20.17.
- S&P 500: Up by 0.1% to 1,974.62, with a 1-day change of +1.30.
Key News Highlights
China
- Gazprom's gas price for China: Set at $360 per Mcm, close to the $366 per Mcm offered to Germany last year.
- Refining margins down: For major Chinese refineries, margins using Daqing crude fell to $1.64/bbl from $1.67/bbl, while those using Oman crude dropped to $4.66/bbl from $5.97/bbl due to crude oil price hikes.
- Sinopec: Restructuring update indicates no IPO in the near term. Target price is HKD6.85. Reiterate HOLD as valuation is stretched.
- Yinson Holdings: No surprises in results. Target price is MYR3.03. Reiterate BUY.
- Petron Corp: RMP-2 is nearing completion, with full commercial operations expected by December 2014. Target price is PHP16.80. Reiterate BUY.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: Results are on track. Target price is MYR5.30. Maintain BUY.
- China Oil & Gas (initiation): Initiate with NEUTRAL view. BUY on PetroChina and NewOcean Energy, HOLD on CNOOC and Sinopec.
- CNOOC: Initiate with HOLD view. Target price is HKD14.34. Earnings outlook uninspiring unless oil prices rise.
- NewOcean Energy: Initiate with BUY view. Target price is HKD8.88. Strong growth in auto LNG segment expected.
Other Markets
- ExxonMobil: Invests $1 billion in Antwerp refinery upgrades. Total's benchmark margin fell to $6.60/t in 1Q14.
- Woodside: Hit gas pay at Toro-1 in Western Australia.
- Stateoil: Hires Prosafe's semi-submersible for $44 million starting in June 2015.
- Kvaerner: Sets up joint venture with COOEC in Shandong province.
- CGG: Opens a subsurface imaging centre in Yangon, Myanmar.
- Petrobras: Pays $900 million for more reserves.
- Premier Oil: Commenced gas production at 40 billion btu/d from Natuna Sea Block A in Indonesia.
Analyst Contacts
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 22 6623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Bianca Solema, (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com; Laura Dy-Liacco, (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeast Chee Keong, (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Valuation Comparison
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 02-Jul | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD b | 90D T/O USD m | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | buy | 9.93 | 11.50 | 223.3 | 86.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | hold | 7.38 | 6.85 | 99.4 | 83.7 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | hold | 14.08 | 14.34 | 81.1 | 88.9 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 367.25 | 443.00 | 11.8 | 17.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 23.6 | 5.1 | 3.8 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 601.80 | NR | 7.3 | 18.8 | 15.4 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 14.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 417.20 | NR | 2.4 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 12.74 | 16.80 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 15.9 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | buy | 6.45 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
Asia Oil Service
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 02-Jul | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD b | 90D T/O USD m | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 5.33 | NR | 1.5 | 5.8 | 21.1 | 16.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 17.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Main Points
- Crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) and natural gas prices (Henry Hub) declined in the short term.
- Refining margins in China fell due to increased crude oil prices.
- Major investments in refinery upgrades and exploration projects are ongoing.
- Analysts suggest that while some companies are showing positive growth potential, others face challenges in the short term.
- Valuation comparisons indicate varying performance and expectations across the region.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
