20140430-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_567kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 30 Apr 2014
Core Market Performance
- Brent Crude Oil gained 0.5% overnight, closing at $108.71/bbl.
- Dow Jones rallied 0.53%, closing at 16,535.37.
- S&P 500 gained 0.48%, closing at 1,878.33.
- NYMEX Natural Gas increased by 0.8%, closing at $4.84/MMBtu.
Key News Highlights
China
- LNG prices for May dropped by CNY110-150/tonne due to increased local supply, settling at CNY5,660-5,815/tonne at Guangdong terminals.
- Asia's palm crop output is under threat due to the rising probability of an El Nino event, which may lead to severe droughts.
Indonesia
- Premier Oil PLC discovered 183ft of net oil-bearing reservoir and 327ft of net gas-bearing reservoir at the Kuda Laut-1 well.
Australia & Asia
- Horizon Oil and Roc Oil plan to merge to form a single Asia-focused exploration and production company, with UBS as financial adviser and King & Wood Mallesons as legal adviser.
- AWE reached its primary target in the Peteke-4H project off New Zealand, confirming initial estimates.
Papua New Guinea
- ExxonMobil started early production at the $19b LNG project, expected to add 6.9mtpa of LNG capacity, with Asian demand projected to grow by 165% to 370mtpa by 2025.
Spain
- Spain became a net LNG exporter for the first time, driven by low gas turbine utilisation.
Hong Kong
- Bunker fuel prices for May dropped to USD14.5-16.00/mt, compared to USD16.50-18.00/mt in April.
Analyst Reports
- Vard Holdings showed a recovery on track with a target price of SGD1.07, based on a 1.4x FY14E P/BV valuation, which is 1SD below historical mean.
Regional Valuation Comparison (Oil & Gas)
| Company | KE Rating | Price 29-Apr | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | NR | 8.97 | NR | 218.7 | 100.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| Sinopec - H | NR | 6.92 | NR | 96.0 | 118.0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | NR | 12.96 | NR | 74.6 | 112.5 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.4 |
| ONGC | NR | 320.30 | NR | 45.5 | 21.9 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 17.3 | 14.5 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Reliance Industries | NR | 940.30 | NR | 50.5 | 54.3 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | buy | 335.00 | 443.00 | 10.6 | 14.7 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| BPCL | NR | 460.45 | NR | 5.5 | 11.2 | 17.7 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| HPCL | NR | 318.45 | NR | 1.8 | 7.4 | 21.5 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Petron Corp | buy | 12.06 | 15.90 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 26.8 | 15.1 | 14.0 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum PH | buy | 6.00 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 13.6 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 12.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| PTT Global Chemical | buy | 69.75 | 87.00 | 9.7 | 23.2 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 17.0 | 1.3 | 3.7 |
| PTT PCL | buy | 303.00 | 395.00 | 26.8 | 31.1 | 21.4 | 4.5 | 11.0 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| Thai Oil PCL | sell | 52.50 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | buy | 99,500 | 103,000 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 40.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| Asian E&P Average | - | - | - | - | - | 11.0 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 17.8 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
Regional Valuation Comparison (Oil Services)
| Company | KE Rating | Price 29-Apr | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | NR | 5.12 | NR | 1.4 | 5.7 | 22.8 | 19.9 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 18.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | NR | 18.70 | NR | 12.2 | 27.6 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 26.1 | 1.4 | 4.9 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | NR | 2.45 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 48.5 | 15.1 | 20.0 | 13.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | NR | 3.99 | NR | 0.9 | 4.9 | 15.3 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Honghua Group | NR | 1.86 | NR | 0.8 | 3.0 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | NR | 8.30 | NR | 4.7 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 26.1 | 1.4 | 4.9 |
| SPT Energy | NR | 4.05 | NR | 0.8 | 4.4 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 17.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Petronas Gas | hold | 23.50 | 23.50 | 14.3 | 4.3 | 22.4 | 28.0 | 17.5 | 15.2 | 21.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| PTT E&P | buy | 158.00 | 188.00 | 19.4 | 23.1 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 16.0 | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| Asian Oil Service Average | - | - | - | - | - | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 17.8 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
Analyst Contacts
- Hong Kong/China: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Malaysia: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- India: Jigar Shah (91) 226623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Singapore: Yeast Chee Keong (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Thailand: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Indonesia: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Philippines: Laura Dy-Liacco (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com; Bianca Solema (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Vietnam: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh (84) 444555888×8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
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