20151012-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_786kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Market Summary (9 October 2015)
Core Market Overview
-
Crude Oil Prices:
- Brent Crude: Fell by 0.8% to USD52.65/b, marking the lowest close since late July.
- WTI Crude: Rose by 0.4% to USD49.63/b, hitting a new high since late July.
- Both benchmarks gained about 9% in the week, the biggest weekly gain in the last six weeks.
-
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price for LNG increased by 3.4% to USD6.70/MMBtu.
-
Gas Prices:
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Rose slightly by 0.1% to USD61.14/barrel.
- China Daqing Spot: Increased by 3.9% to USD47.45/barrel.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Dropped by 1.2% to USD254.54/mt.
-
Gold: Rose by 1.5% to USD1,156.53/Oz.
-
USD-CNY: Declined by 0.1% to 6.35.
-
Stock Market Indices:
- DJI: Increased by 0.2% to 17,084.49.
- S&P 500: Rose by 0.1% to 2,014.89.
Key News Headlines
-
Crude Ends at Highest Since July: Oil prices remained little changed due to conflicting signals between oversupply and reduced US rig counts. WTI hit a new high, while Brent declined.
-
OPEC Sees Oil Demand Growth: OPEC Secretary-General expressed optimism about a more balanced market in 2016, citing expected demand growth and reduced non-OPEC supply.
-
US Loses 14 More Rigs: The US rig count fell to 795, indicating a continued decline in oil exploration activity. Texas and Oklahoma were the hardest hit.
-
House Passes Oil Export Ban Bill: The bill to repeal the U.S. oil export ban passed the House but faces a veto threat from President Obama.
-
Indian Industry Body Calls for New Gas Price Formula: FICCI urged the Indian government to revise the gas pricing mechanism to better reflect domestic conditions and support E&P activities.
-
China's LPG Prices Rise: LPG prices increased in both East and South China due to higher import costs, global crude price rally, and restocking activities.
Company Reports
Perisai Petroleum
- Proposes 10% Private Placement (SELL): Aims to raise about MYR40m to repay loans; maintain SELL rating with MYR0.22 TP.
- Delays Delivery of PP 102 Rig (SELL): Delivery postponed by 3 months to 31 Mar 2016; continued off-hire of assets is a concern.
- Farms Out PP 101 to Hess (SELL): Farming out for 9+1 months at USD99k DCR; forecasts unchanged.
KNM Group
- Bags RE EPCC Job in UK (BUY): Secured an £88m (MYR581m) 27-month EPCC contract; expect more renewable projects.
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 9-Oct | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 6.30 | 4.80 | 234.6 | 89.5 | 27.7 | 48.1 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.45 | 6.00 | 93.7 | 72.5 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.27 | 11.70 | 53.4 | 91.3 | 17.0 | 20.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.10 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 263.7 | NR | 34.8 | 19.1 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 887.4 | NR | 44.4 | 53.3 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 168.3 | 198.00 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 848.5 | NR | 9.5 | 24.1 | 19.5 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 768.8 | NR | 4.0 | 24.7 | 19.7 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.10 | NR | 1.5 | 0.5 | 15.4 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 3.55 | NR | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 70,600 | NR | 6.9 | 19.6 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 4.5 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 114,000 | NR | 9.2 | 36.9 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 49,150 | NR | 4.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 80.10 | NR | 23.6 | 7.1 | 19.9 | 21.2 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 2.9 | 4.3 |
| Bangchak Petroleum | BCP TB | Buy | 36.00 | 41.00 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 15.5 | 1.3 | 4.1 |
| IRPC PCL | IRPC TB | Hold | 4.20 | 3.74 | 2.4 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 5.1 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 60.25 | 87.00 | 7.6 | 22.6 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 56.25 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 13.4 | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| Asian E&P Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 17.3 | 20.6 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 9-Oct | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 9.48 | NR | 10.1 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.12 | NR | 0.3 | 0.7 | N/A | 83.3 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 9.0 | -3.7 | 0.0 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 0.83 | NR | 0.2 | 0.4 | N/A | 169.8 | -7.2 | 7.3 | -15.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 1.78 | NR | 0.4 | 0.5 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.64 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | N/A | 34.9 | 12.5 | 9.2 | -2.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Petro King | 2178 HK | NR | 0.82 | NR | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | 74.5 | 12.5 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Jutal Offshore | 3303 HK | NR | 0.81 | NR | 0.1 | 0.2 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Shengli Pipe | 1080 HK | NR | 0.27 | NR | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Chu Kong Pipe | 1938 HK | NR | 1.32 | NR | 0.2 | 0.2 | N/A | 8.3 | 45.8 | 18.6 | -4.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| AlamMaritim | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 14.3 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Hold | 1.02 | 0.75 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 35.4 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 29.0 | 26.1 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | Hold | 1.16 | 1.32 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 13.4 | 15.6 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | Buy | 1.54 | 1.70 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 19.2 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Petra Energy | PENB MK | NR | 1.30 | NR | 0.1 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 2.20 | 2.00 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| TH Heavy Engineering | RH MK | NR | 0.21 | NR | 0.1 | 0.4 | N/A | 11.1 | 53.4 | 11.1 | -1.9 | 0.5 | N/A |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | Sell | 1.38 | 2.55 | 0.7 | 1.0 | -325.8 | -29.2 | 21.1 | 31.4 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| UZMA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Analyst Contacts
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tliaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Notes
- Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price for LNG to Platts' assessment of the spot physical LNG market.
- Market Assessments: Evaluated by Platts at 4:30 pm, Singapore time.
- Forward-looking estimates and multiples: For companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage, sourced from Bloomberg consensus.
- Average multiples and yields: Weighted by market capitalization.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
