20140523-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_578kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 23 May 2014

Core Content Overview

This summary provides an analysis of the oil and gas market trends, price changes, and company-specific reports for the Asia-Pacific region as of 22 May 2014. It highlights key developments in production, supply, and market valuations, along with analyst ratings and forecasts.

Key Market Trends

Henry Hub Price: The NYMEX Henry Hub price decreased by 2.5% overnight.
China Fuel Oil Production: China's April fuel oil production volume fell by 8.37% MoM to 2.19m tonnes due to lower crude throughput, though it increased by 4.5% YoY year-to-date.
China Refinery Utilisation: Independent refiners in Shandong reached a 41.3% capacity utilisation, which was 2.3% higher YoW and 8.8% higher YoY.
Lukoil Base Oil Supply: Lukoil plans to resume spot base oil supply to China in June due to increased output and weak domestic demand.
Indonesia's Commitment: Indonesia remains committed to oil and gas development despite the current government's limited term.
India Urea Imports: India's new government may reduce urea imports pending further rain forecasts.
Petronas LNG Project: Petronas has proven about half of the 15tcf reserve target for its Canadian LNG project and plans to drill aggressively before the final investment decision (FID) in 2014.
China LNG Plant: China's Western Natural Gas started construction of a 2mmcm/d LNG plant in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, with an expected completion in 2H15.
South Korea Butadiene: Kumho Petrochemical continues to operate its butadiene facilities at 50% utilisation due to feedstock shortages.
Dragon Oil Drilling: Dragon Oil's JV partner Nido Petroleum faced challenges in drilling the Baragatan-1 well due to an unstable geological zone, with Dragon covering 50% of drilling costs and USD3.4m in compensation.
Japan Spot LNG Price: Japan's spot LNG price for April was USD16/MMBtu, down 12.6% MoM.

Company Reports

Offshore & Marine

Singapore Offshore & Marine: An uninspiring first quarter with only one positive earnings surprise. The analyst recommends maintaining a NEUTRAL stance due to rising near-term challenges such as budget cuts and cost hikes.
UMW Oil & Gas Corporation: No surprises in the first quarter. Net profit of MYR53m matched expectations, and the analyst reiterates BUY with a target price of MYR5.15.
Dialog Group: Earnings shortfall in the 9-month period, but long-term prospects remain positive. The analyst maintains BUY with a target price of MYR3.90.
Perisai Petroleum: Expected losses in the first quarter, but the analyst maintains BUY with a target price of MYR1.76.
SapuraKencana Petroleum: Secures 5 contracts worth USD312m. Analyst recommends BUY with a target price of MYR5.30.
Nam Cheong Ltd: Strong first quarter performance, with a BUY rating and target price of SGD0.41.
Petron Corp: Net income reached PHP2.23b, contributing to 29% of the full-year forecast. The analyst maintains BUY with a target price of PHP15.90.
Mermaid Maritime: 2QFY9/14 PATMI dropped by 60.7% QoQ to USD5.2m, but the analyst maintains BUY with a lower target price of SGD0.59.

Valuation Comparison

Asian Oil & Gas

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 22-May	Target Price	Mkt Cap USD	90D T/O USD	P/E (X) 2013	P/E (X) 2014E	EV/EBITDA (X) 2013	EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	9.47	NR	224.1	96.3	10.6	10.5	6.1	5.3	11.8	1.2	4.2
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	7.06	NR	97.7	110.3	9.8	9.0	5.3	4.8	12.2	1.1	4.3
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	13.62	NR	78.4	100.6	8.6	8.6	3.9	3.8	17.3	1.4	4.2

Asian Oil Service

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 22-May	Target Price	Mkt Cap USD	90D T/O USD	P/E (X) 2013	P/E (X) 2014E	EV/EBITDA (X) 2013	EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
Anton Oilfield Services	3337 HK	NR	5.90	NR	1.7	5.5	26.3	22.9	13.0	10.5	18.0	4.4	1.2
China Oilfield Services-H	2883 HK	NR	19.06	NR	12.3	25.1	10.1	9.8	7.7	7.1	19.3	1.8	2.8
Chu Kong Petroleum	1938 HK	NR	2.75	NR	0.4	0.5	54.5	16.9	20.7	14.0	1.4	0.6	0.0
Hilong Holding	1623 HK	NR	4.58	NR	1.0	4.8	17.5	12.3	8.1	6.8	14.4	2.3	2.1
Honghua Group	196 HK	NR	1.84	NR	0.8	2.7	8.6	7.1	6.2	5.4	11.7	1.0	3.3
Sinopec Engineering-H	2386 HK	NR	8.81	NR	5.0	7.5	7.5	7.4	3.6	3.3	26.1	1.5	4.6
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	4.47	NR	0.9	3.1	18.0	14.8	8.5	6.4	17.8	3.0	1.4

Analyst Contacts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 22 6623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Summary of Key Points

The oil and gas market experienced mixed performance, with some regions showing declines and others reporting increases.
China's fuel oil production decreased MoM but increased YoY, and independent refiners showed improved capacity utilisation.
Lukoil plans to resume base oil supply to China in June, while Petronas continues to develop its Canadian LNG project.
The valuation reports show that most companies are either under review or not rated, but several are highlighted with BUY ratings and target prices.
Market challenges, such as budget cuts and feedstock shortages, were noted in several reports, but long-term prospects remain positive.

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