20140728-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market trends and company-specific updates as of 25 July 2014. It highlights changes in crude oil and gas prices, production guidance, and company performance, alongside investment recommendations and valuation comparisons across various markets.
Key Market Trends
- Brent Crude Oil: Gained 1.2% over the previous day and 1.1% over the previous week, but fell by 4.5% over the past month.
- Henry Hub (Natural Gas): Continued to decline by 1.7% over the previous day, 4.3% over the week, and 17.2% over the month.
- Gold: Rose by 1.0% over the previous day, with a slight decline of 0.3% over the week and 0.9% over the month.
- USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Remained stable at 6.19, with no change in the previous day, a slight drop of 0.3% over the week, and a decline of 0.7% over the month.
Company News Highlights
- China's Commercial Crude Reserve: Decreased by 2.3% MoM in June. Net imports fell by 10.7% MoM, crude production by 1.43% MoM, and refining throughput by 6.2% MoM.
- CNPC in Myanmar: Plans to drill two exploration wells in early 2015, marking its first deep-water drilling outside of China.
- Cairn India: Aims to double gas output from Rajasthan by the end of 2015, citing strong potential for gas discoveries.
- PTTEP in Myanmar: Plans to drill 10 appraisal wells starting in August 2014 and has revised its production guidance for the year to 320kbpd from 325kbpd.
- Petrobras: Approved the renewal of the Marlim offshore development plan.
- Rosneft: Reported a 4.6% YoY increase in total output and a 100% YoY rise in first-half 2014 profit to 260 billion rubles.
- Statoil: Experienced a 12% drop in second-quarter 2014 profit due to asset maintenance and disposals, with output slightly below analyst expectations.
Investment Reports
- Yinson Holdings: Sold Petroleum Nautipa for USD59m, leading to a MYR79m gain. The company is recommended as a BUY with a target price of MYR3.03.
- Keppel Corp: Maintained a HOLD recommendation with a target price of SGD10.95. The company met expectations in 2Q14, but its share price is constrained by the oversupplied rig market and reduced capex.
- NewOcean Energy: Recommended as a BUY with a target price of HKD8.88. The company is expected to report solid results in its interim results announcement, despite potential forex losses.
- Vard Holdings: Recommended as a BUY with a target price of SGD1.25. The company is expected to show improvement in FY15E with a turnaround at the Promar yard and reduced risk at the Niteroi yard.
- China Oil & Gas: Recommended as NEUTRAL due to high ownership levels and valuations. The report suggests a rotation from Sinopec to PetroChina.
Valuation Comparison
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (25-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % | P/B | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.82 | 11.50 | 230.8 | 88.4 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 11.3 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.63 | 6.85 | 100.4 | 73.6 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 14.02 | 14.34 | 80.8 | 82.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 308.70 | 443.00 | 9.8 | 18.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 23.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| PTT E&P | PTTEP TB | Buy | 171.00 | 188.00 | 21.3 | 26.3 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 16.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 114,000 | 103,000 | 10.2 | 1.9 | 17.1 | 15.8 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 34.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 |
Asian Oil Service
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (25-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % | P/B | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 3.37 | 4.55 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 23.6 | 22.2 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 1.63 | 1.90 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 19.4 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 34.7 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
| Alam Maritim | AMRB MK | Buy | 1.52 | 1.90 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 16.8 | 18.1 | 13.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
Main Points
- Market Movements: Brent crude and gold prices rose, while Henry Hub fell.
- Production Trends: China's crude reserves and imports declined, while PTTEP and Rosneft reported production growth.
- Investment Insights: Investment recommendations include BUY for Yinson, NewOcean, Vard, Cairn India, PTT E&P, and PetroVietnam Gas; HOLD for Keppel Corp and Gas Malaysia; NEUTRAL for China Oil & Gas.
- Valuation Metrics: The report includes detailed valuation data for Asian oil and gas companies, showing P/E, EV/EBITDA, RoE, and P/B ratios.
Key Information
- China: CNPC and PTTEP are expanding their operations in Myanmar, while Sinopec is being recommended for rotation to PetroChina.
- India: Cairn India is targeting a significant increase in gas output from Rajasthan.
- Thailand: PTTEP has revised its production guidance and is planning new wells.
- Russia: Rosneft's profit doubled in 1H14, driven by production growth and cost controls.
- Norway: Statoil's profit dropped 12% in 2Q14 due to asset maintenance and disposals.
- Valuation: The report highlights the relative valuations and performance metrics of various companies across Asia and the global oil and gas sector.
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