20231105-东吴证券-烯烃行业周报_丙烷价格大幅上涨_PDH盈利承压_17页_1mb

Summary of Petrochemical Industry Tracking Report

Key Findings

Raw Material Price Overview

• Price Movements: This week, key raw materials saw mixed price changes. Ethane, crude oil, naphtha, and coal prices declined, while propane, natural gas, and methanol prices increased. The ethane-to-crude oil ratio is at a historical low (30th percentile), and the propane-to-crude oil ratio is moderate (58th percentile).
• Implications: Falling prices for some raw materials due to supply-demand dynamics, while rising energy inputs affect overall profitability in petrochemical routes.

Profitability Comparison of Oil-Gas Routes

• Ethylene Production: Ethane cracking profits improved marginally this week. Compared to other methods (naphtha cracking and MTO), ethane-based production (CTO) offers better profitability, though the margin advantage over naphtha is narrowing.
• Propylene Production: PDH routes experienced reduced profitability due to higher input costs. The sequencing remains CTO > naphtha cracking > MTO > PDH, with PDH showing significant loss and underperforming compared to other routes. Cost disadvantages for PDH widened, indicating pressure on margins.

C2 and C3 Industry Analysis

• C2 Chain (Ethylene-Derived Products):
  • Prices for HDPE, EG, and SPS rose, while instances of EO, PEBAX, and DMC fell. Overall, C2 downstream products are at historically low valuation levels, with most price differences subdued despite some improvements. Ethylene prices are at 30th percentile, and C2 value spreads remain tight.
• C3 Chain (Propylene-Derived Products):
  • PP prices increased slightly, while propylene and acrylate prices decreased. C3 segments face low price differentials and are at historical understatement, with PDH profitability contracting further.

Investment Outlook

• The report recommends a positive stance on olefins sector, anticipating profitability recoveries with improving demand. High oil prices amplify cost advantages for ethane and coal-based routes like ethane cracking and coal-to-olefins, supporting value re-evaluation.
• Notable companies highlighted include Satellites Chemical (002648SZ), East China Energy (002221SZ), Bao Feng Energy (600989SH), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493SZ), H恒力石化 (600346SH), and East Sun Petrochemical (000301SZ) for potential investment.

Key Risks

• Projects may be delayed due to implementation challenges.
• Demand recovery could falter if economic conditions or global events disrupt.
• Raw material prices may surge from geopolitical tensions or capacity shifts.
• Errors in data or methodology could impact interpretations.

Conclusion

The report indicates overall challenges in the olefins industry with tight valuations but opportunities from structured plays on recovery and cost-effective routes.