20231119-国联证券-建筑材料及新材料行业周报_关注地产融资积极政策效果_19页_1mb

报告摘要

The real estate financing "three arrows" policy is expected to be reactivated to stabilize the market.
Economic data shows subdued real estate performance, with sales and new permits remaining under pressure, while completions are strong.
Infrastructure investment is steady but faces margin pressure.
Overall market sentiment is cautious, with ongoing demand-side interventions like reduced mortgage rates and relaxed purchase policies.

First主线 (New Materials/Applications): Focus on companies with strong fundamental growth and valuations; recommended stocks include Shandong Glass, Jianghe Group, Lu Yang Energy, and San Hui Chemical.
Second主线 (Real Estate and Infrastructure Chain): Target cyclical, low-valuation stocks for short-term catalysts; recommended include China Jushi, Honglu Steel Structure, and consumption leaders like East Hope Rainbow, North China New Materials, China Plastic, and We Star New Materials; also watch regional cement leaders like China National Cement and Huaxin Cement.

The building materials index declined 0.5% weekly, underperforming the沪深300 by 94% since the year began.
Valuations are high: PE_ttm at 184x (73.4% percentile), PB_lf at 126x (0.0% percentile).
Sub-sectors: Cement rose 0.9%, glass and fiberglass increased 0.5%, while装修建材 fell 24%.

Real estate: High inventory levels, weak sales; policy easing is ongoing but impact is muted.
Glass: PV glass inventory rising; float glass prices softened.
Glass Fiber: Prices declining; inventory high at 867 mt.
Cement: Prices fringe lows; demand improving in regions like Central South and Southwest China due to winter heating needs.
Cost Factors: Crude oil and pure碱 prices fell sharply, impacting production costs.