20240322-群益证券-宝丰能源-600989.SH-销量同比大增_新产能释放推动成长_3页_382kb

报告摘要

Company Basics: Chemical industry A-stock company with a current stock price of 1560 CNY on March 21, 2024, A-share market capitalization of 114.4 billion CNY. Target price is 1790 CNY.
2023 Performance: Full-year 2023 revenue increased by 248% YoY to 29,136 billion CNY, but net profit decreased sharply by 1034% YoY to 565.1 billion CNY due to falling product prices. Q4 2023 performance was strong, with revenue up 2577% YoY and net profit up 8925% YoY, driven by new capacity release.
Capacity Expansion: 2023 saw significant new project launches, including the Ningdong Phase III project adding 900,000 tonnes/year of polyethylene and polypropylene capacity, and coal mining projects. For 2024, further expansions like the Inner Mongolia coal-to-olefins project, with green hydrogen integration, are expected, tripling olefins capacity.
Profit Drivers and Risks: Lower原材料 prices reduced costs, but product price declines dragged down margins. Future profitability may improve as prices recover and demand increases. Key risks include product price volatility and project execution delays.
Rating and Forecast: Maintain "interval operation" rating. Revises 2024-2026 net profit forecast to 79/133/148 billion CNY, with EPS of 1.07/1.81/2.02 CNY, currently trading at 15-9-8x PE. Stock valuation is considered reasonable.