20231008-广发期货-燃料油期货第四季度报_16页_1mb

Fuel Oil Fourth Quarter 2023 Outlook

This report provides an analysis of fuel oil futures for the fourth quarter of 2023. All views are for reference only and are based on market conditions up to September 2023.

Crude Oil Market Update
The report highlights that crude oil prices experienced significant growth during the July-September 2023 period, rising from approximately 7465 dollars per barrel in July to 9535 dollars per barrel by September. Key drivers included supply tightening with OPEC+, Russia, and US production cuts, as well as favorable macroeconomic factors like strong US labor data, lower-than-expected inflation, and a declining dollar index. However, in late September, prices faced pressure from weakening demand and dovish Fed policies, leading to a slight pullback. Overall, supply constraints are expected to support prices into Q4.

Fuel Oil Demand and Supply
Demand for fuel oil is closely tied to crude oil movements. Currently, seasonal factors and geopolitical tensions have led to mixed demand signals, with the Middle East experiencing lower electricity demand. Supply-side issues, such as high U.S. inventory levels, were noted, but refining activity and wider price spreads suggest potential adjustments. Short-term outlook for fuel oil is cautious, tied to crude volatility.

Price and Performance Data
Futures data for fuel oil (FU) and liquefied petroleum gas (LU) show significant range-bound movement. FU prices moved from around 3037 yuan/ton in July to near 3869 yuan/ton by September, while LU saw similar volatility around 3940 yuan/ton to 4869 yuan/ton. Key indicators include China's high and low sulfur fuel oil prices, U.S. crude inventory levels, and global benchmark prices like Singapore and Rotterdam bunker fuel rates. Data shows low sulfur cracks strengthening slightly, but high sulfur cracks widening at times, reflecting supply-demand imbalances.

Outlook for Fourth Quarter
For Q4, fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil trends, with supply constraints from Russia and OPEC+ likely maintaining tightness. However, seasonal demand slowdowns in the Northern Hemisphere and maintenance schedules could pose risks. Short-term positions should monitor crude and inventory data closely. No specific price targets are provided.

Disclaimer Note: The analysis is based on data sources like Wind and Bloomberg and does not constitute investment advice. Risks include market volatility, and readers are advised to consult the full report's disclaimer for details.