20150709-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_375kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 9 Jul 2015

Core Content Overview

The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 8 July 2015, including price movements, market trends, and analyst reports on key players in Asia and other regions. It highlights the performance of major oil and gas prices, M&A activity, investment developments, and valuation metrics for various companies.

Major Oil & Gas Prices

Product	Bloomberg Ticker	Units	Last Price	Dollar Chg. 1D	1D Change	1W Change	1M Change
Crude Oil (Brent)	COA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	57.05	0.20	0.4%	-8.0%	-9.8%
Crude Oil (WTI)	CLA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	51.65	-0.68	-1.3%	-9.3%	-11.9%
Dubai Fateh Spot	PGCRDUBA Index	USD/bbl.	55.85	-0.06	-0.1%	-9.7%	-8.2%
China Daqing Spot	APCRDAQG Index	USD/bbl.	51.81	-0.30	-0.6%	-10.4%	-12.1%
NYMEX Henry Hub	NGA COMDTY	USD/MMBtu	2.69	-0.03	-1.1%	-3.5%	-1.9%
LNG Northeast Asia CFR	JKL1 Index	USD/MMBtu	7.38	0.00	-0.6%	1.6%	-3.5%
Singapore 92 RON Spot	MOGFM92S Index	USD/bbl.	73.10	1.55	2.2%	-1.9%	-7.3%
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot	GASL500P Index	USD/bbl.	70.51	0.03	0.0%	-7.8%	-8.4%
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot	N6SH180S Index	USD/mt	317.84	2.83	0.9%	-9.0%	-9.5%
Gold	XAU CURNCY	USD/Oz	1,158.33	3.07	0.3%	-0.9%	-1.3%
USD-CNY	USDCNY CURNCY	Fx rate	6.21	-0.00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
DJI	DJI INDEX	Index	17,515.42	-261.49	-1.5%	-1.4%	-1.4%
S&P 500	SPX INDEX	Index	2,046.68	-34.66	-1.7%	-1.5%	-1.6%

Key News Headlines

China to Increase Investment in Sudan's Oil Industry
- China's CNPC is the largest investor in Sudan's oil industry.
- The ambassador stated that China will continue to support Sudan's oil production despite global price drops.
- Malaysia and India are also major investors in Sudan's oil sector.
Oil Prices Under $60 Beyond 2016 Signal Market Reassessment of Shale
- Oil prices fell sharply due to a combination of external factors like Greece's debt crisis and China's stock market issues.
- The market is now rethinking the viability of shale projects due to the sustained low prices.
Upstream M&A Market Unfroze in Q2
- The M&A market for upstream oil and gas saw a revival in the second quarter.
- The first half of 2015 had a sector deal value of $113 billion, which is less than half of 2014 and 20% below 2013.
Rosneft Buys Stake in Essar Oil Refinery in India
- Rosneft agreed to buy up to 49% of Essar's refinery.
- The deal includes a 10-year supply agreement for 100 million tonnes of crude oil.
- A preliminary agreement for a minority stake in Vadinar refinery was also signed.
China Launches Energy Reforms Pilot in Xinjiang
- Six oil and gas blocks in Xinjiang are being auctioned as part of the pilot reform.
- The reforms aim to attract more investment and diversify the entities involved in exploration and production.
Shengli Crude Refining Losses Deepen
- Independent refiners in Shandong faced deeper losses due to falling product prices.
- Refining margins dropped to CNY -453/tonne on 8 July, compared to CNY -362/tonne on 1 July.
- Gasoline and gasoil prices fell by CNY150/tonne and CNY75/tonne respectively.

Analyst Reports

Petronas Chemicals

Rating: HOLD
Target Price: MYR6.60 (up from MYR5.35)
Performance: Petrochemical ASPs are down 25% YTD in USD and 13% in MYR.
Outlook: Promising ASPs and weaker MYR against USD could improve earnings forecasts.

NewOcean Energy

Rating: BUY
Target Price: HKD7.70 (implies 105% upside)
Performance: Volume and margin are on track for FY15 projections.
Outlook: Poses upside risk to consensus earnings.

Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR2.65 (revised down by 12%)
Performance: Earnings are expected to triple in 2016 with the operation of a coal-fired power plant.
Outlook: Valuations remain attractive.

Gas Malaysia

Rating: HOLD
Target Price: MYR2.65
Performance: FY15 spread guidance increased from MYR1.10 to MYR1.58.
Outlook: IBR may begin in Jan 2016 with a pass-through mechanism.

Valuation Metrics

Asia Oil & Gas Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 8-Jul	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	7.96	8.30	343.2	168.0	23.1	14.4	7.1	5.8	4.2	1.0	1.9
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	6.16	7.70	123.7	139.9	17.1	12.1	6.8	5.8	5.6	1.0	2.9
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	9.64	16.80	55.5	133.0	14.0	8.7	4.2	3.3	6.3	0.9	2.5
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	303.0	NR	40.8	20.5	10.9	9.6	5.3	4.8	13.3	1.4	3.3
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	996.6	NR	50.7	66.4	13.4	12.3	11.2	9.8	11.2	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	168.0	198.00	5.0	9.1	4.6	7.3	1.6	2.5	11.7	0.5	5.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	916.1	NR	10.4	19.2	21.1	12.9	10.5	7.8	15.2	3.1	1.7
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	823.2	NR	4.4	16.8	21.1	12.6	9.5	8.1	8.8	1.9	2.0
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	8.35	11.25	1.7	0.5	19.1	11.3	8.3	7.3	12.9	0.9	0.6
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.22	5.00	0.1	0.1	4.9	4.0	6.9	5.5	12.9	0.6	3.1
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	66.00	87.00	8.8	26.4	10.6	9.4	7.0	6.4	11.6	1.2	4.2
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	340.0	395.00	28.6	48.5	10.8	9.6	6.9	6.4	11.7	1.3	3.6
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	52.8	65.00	3.2	11.0	10.2	9.8	6.5	6.2	12.3	1.2	4.4
Asian Refiners Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	14.2	12.7	-21.0	9.2	6.7	1.7	2.9

Asia Oil-Service Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 8-Jul	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
COSL	2883 HK	NR	10.02	NR	10.3	45.1	9.5	8.4	9.1	8.2	8.5	0.8	2.9
Anton Oil	3337 HK	NR	1.05	NR	0.3	4.3	N/A	36.6	10.1	7.6	-0.8	0.9	0.0
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	0.85	NR	0.2	2.4	10.3	7.2	3.7	3.2	5.6	0.6	1.8
Hilong	1623 HK	NR	1.72	NR	0.4	2.3	6.2	5.3	5.8	5.3	12.0	0.7	3.0
Honghua	196 HK	NR	0.52	NR	0.2	2.4	52.1	13.4	9.7	8.6	2.5	0.3	1.9
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	21.18	24.00	11.0	5.8	23.2	22.9	13.9	13.6	16.7	3.8	3.0
Barakah Offshore	BARAKAH MK	Buy	0.91	1.15	0.2	0.5	11.2	8.0	5.1	3.6	18.1	1.6	0.0
Bumi Armada	BAB MK	Buy	1.06	1.60	1.6	4.1	14.9	13.1	8.6	8.2	6.2	0.9	0.0
Dialog	DLG MK	Buy	1.46	1.90	1.9	3.3	28.8	27.0	23.5	23.6	14.1	3.6	1.5
KNM	KNMG MK	Buy	0.57	1.00	0.3	4.4	8.1	6.8	6.4	5.2	5.1	0.4	0.0
MMHE	MMHE MK	Hold	1.17	1.32	0.5	0.4	13.5	15.7	7.8	7.8	5.1	0.7	0.0
Perdana Petroleum	PETR MK	Buy	1.54	1.70	0.3	1.6	19.2	9.2	14.2	9.3	8.6	1.6	0.0
SapuraKencana	SAKP MK	Hold	2.30	2.80	3.6	7.5	11.3	15.3	10.2	9.9	11.0	1.1	1.9
UMWOG MK	UMWOG MK	Sell	1.57	2.55	0.9	0.9	21.9	13.9	12.7	9.8	4.7	1.0	0.0

Key Points

Oil Prices: Brent and WTI saw modest gains and losses respectively, while other crude and refined products showed mixed performance.
Market Trends: The upstream M&A market showed signs of revival in Q2, but the sector deal value was still below previous years.
Investment Developments: China increased its investment in Sudan's oil industry, and Rosneft made a significant stake purchase in India.
Energy Reforms: China initiated energy reforms in Xinjiang, aiming to enhance investment and diversify the energy sector.
Refining Losses: Independent refiners in Shandong faced deeper losses due to declining product prices and international crude prices.
Valuations: Companies in the oil and gas sector had varying valuations, with some showing attractive prospects and others facing sell ratings.

Analyst Contacts

HK/CHINA: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
INDIA: Jigar Shah (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson (63) 28498840, micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
VIETNAM: Truong Quang Binh (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn