20150703-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_Grease_Spot_11页_375kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 3 Jul 2015
Core Content
This summary provides an overview of the oil and gas market dynamics and company valuations in Asia and other regions as of 2 July 2015. It highlights recent price movements, market conditions, and analyst ratings for key players in the industry.
Oil & Gas Market Overview
- Brent Crude: Increased by $0.06 to USD62.07/b, showing a 0.1% rise in the last day, -1.8% over the last week, and -6.2% over the last month.
- WTI Crude: Decreased by $0.03 to USD56.93/b, showing a 0.1% drop in the last day, -4.6% over the last week, and -7.5% over the last month.
- Market Conditions: The oil market has been the quietest since 2013, with crude prices trading in a narrow range and low trading volume.
- Russia: The Russian Finance Ministry may start replenishing the Reserve Fund if oil prices exceed $70 per barrel. The Reserve Fund was at 4.27 trillion rubles ($77 billion) as of July 1 and is expected to be reduced to 500 billion rubles ($9 billion) by the end of 2017.
- China: Suspended urban land use tax collection to promote shale gas and CBM development. Excess crude production has affected the refined oil market, leading to price adjustments in some provinces.
Analyst Ratings
- Petronas Chemicals: Maintained a HOLD rating, with a target price raised to MYR6.60.
- NewOcean Energy: Reiterated a BUY rating with a target price of HKD7.70, implying a 105% upside.
- Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development: Maintained a BUY rating, with revised earnings and a lowered target price.
- Gas Malaysia: Maintained a HOLD rating with a revised target price of MYR2.65, down 12% from previous estimates.
Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (2-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (2015E) | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 8.62 | 8.30 | 328.3 | 165.2 | 25.0 | 15.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.56 | 7.70 | 131.6 | 141.5 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 10.94 | 16.80 | 63.0 | 132.0 | 15.9 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 310.0 | NR | 41.8 | 20.9 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 13.3 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,010.9 | NR | 51.6 | 66.8 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 186.2 | 198.00 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 11.7 | 0.6 | 4.9 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 900.0 | NR | 10.3 | 17.8 | 20.7 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 15.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 780.7 | NR | 4.2 | 15.5 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 10.94 | 16.80 | 63.0 | 132.0 | 15.9 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.60 | 24.00 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 23.6 | 23.4 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 63,000 | 92,000 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 26.1 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Asian Refiners Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 14.8 | 13.3 | -20.4 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (2-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (2015E) | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 12.20 | NR | 14.4 | 45.9 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 0.92 | 1.15 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 18.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.18 | 1.60 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 16.6 | 14.6 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.60 | 1.90 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 31.5 | 29.5 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | Hold | 1.24 | 1.32 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 14.3 | 16.7 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | Buy | 1.53 | 1.70 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 19.1 | 9.1 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 2.47 | 2.80 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 12.2 | 16.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| UMWOG MK | UMWOG MK | Sell | 1.71 | 2.55 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 23.9 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
Key Information
- Market Sentiment: The oil market remains cautious, with the M&A sector showing a significant deal in the second quarter.
- China's Policies: China has introduced measures to support shale gas and CBM development, including tax exemptions.
- Production Issues: Excess crude production has impacted the refined oil market in China, leading to localized price adjustments.
- CNOOC's Production: CNOOC started production at the Bozhong 28/34 project, marking a significant milestone in its offshore operations.
- Valuation Trends: The valuations for Asian oil and gas companies show varying performance, with some companies showing promising growth potential and others facing challenges.
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