20150713-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_375kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 13 Jul 2015
Core Content Overview
This summary covers the oil and gas market dynamics, key price movements, and analyst ratings for various companies across Asia, with a focus on the period around 10-11 July 2015.
Key Market Developments
- U.S. Oil Prices:
- Brent crude rose by 2.7% to USD58.61/b.
- WTI crude increased by 2.2% to USD52.78/b.
- U.S. Drilling Activity:
- U.S. oil drillers added rigs for the second consecutive week, increasing to 645 rigs.
- Natural gas rigs decreased by two to 217.
- Investor Sentiment:
- Hedge funds reduced their bullish exposure to U.S. oil to the lowest level since 2012, indicating a decline in market confidence.
- IEA Outlook:
- The IEA forecasts that oil prices may continue to fall due to global oversupply.
- Output growth outside OPEC is expected to halt by 2016, with U.S. shale oil growth stagnating and Russian output declining.
- Global oil demand is projected to slow.
- China's Oil Market:
- Sinopec forecasts an 11-fold increase in second-quarter profits.
- China is opening crude oil imports to non-state-owned buyers, with potential imports of up to 600,000 bpd.
Company Ratings and Performance
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (10-Jul) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 8.08 | 8.30 | 363.5 | 160.2 | 23.5 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.22 | 7.70 | 133.6 | 138.3 | 17.2 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 10.14 | 16.80 | 58.4 | 128.7 | 14.7 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 293.9 | NR | 39.7 | 20.8 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 13.3 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,001.8 | NR | 51.1 | 65.6 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 168.8 | 198.00 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 881.8 | NR | 10.1 | 19.9 | 20.3 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 15.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 804.3 | NR | 4.3 | 17.0 | 20.6 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 8.40 | 11.25 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 19.2 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.15 | 5.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 12.9 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
Asia Oil-Service
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (10-Jul) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 10.84 | NR | 12.1 | 39.1 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.35 | NR | 0.4 | 4.0 | N/A | 47.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 1.12 | NR | 0.2 | 2.3 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 1.92 | NR | 0.4 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 12.0 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.68 | NR | 0.3 | 2.3 | 68.1 | 17.6 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Petro King | 2178 HK | NR | 0.92 | NR | 0.1 | 0.5 | N/A | 48.4 | 17.3 | 12.6 | -0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Jutal Offshore | 3303 HK | NR | 0.90 | NR | 0.1 | 1.1 | 14.4 | 9.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.4 |
| Shengli Pipe | 1080 HK | NR | 0.32 | NR | 0.1 | 0.7 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Chu Kong Pipe | 1938 HK | NR | 1.94 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | N/A | 19.4 | 36.2 | 19.2 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| AlamMaritim | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 0.93 | 1.15 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 18.1 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.10 | 1.60 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 15.5 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Coastal Contracts | COCO MK | NR | 2.67 | NR | 0.4 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 14.0 | 0.9 | 3.2 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.57 | 1.90 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 30.9 | 29.0 | 25.2 | 25.3 | 14.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | Hold | 1.16 | 1.32 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 13.4 | 15.6 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | Buy | 1.55 | 1.70 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 19.3 | 9.3 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | Sell | 0.42 | 0.30 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 27.5 | 9.9 | 25.7 | 20.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Petra Energy | PENB MK | NR | 1.11 | NR | 0.1 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 2.38 | 2.80 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 15.8 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| TH Heavy Engineering | RH MK | NR | 0.21 | NR | 0.1 | 0.3 | N/A | 11.1 | 41.2 | 8.6 | -1.9 | 0.5 | N/A |
| UMWOG MK | UMWOG MK | Sell | 1.59 | 2.55 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 22.2 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| UZMA | UZMA MK | NR | 2.41 | NR | 0.2 | 0.3 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 20.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| WahSeong | WSC MK | Hold | 1.35 | 1.24 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 3.00 | 4.35 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
Analyst Contacts
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson (63) 28498840, micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Summary of Key Points
- Oil Prices: Brent and WTI crude prices showed increases, but the IEA warned of potential further declines due to global oversupply.
- U.S. Drilling: Oil rig numbers increased, signaling a possible recovery in the U.S. shale industry.
- Investor Sentiment: Hedge funds significantly reduced their bullish positions, indicating caution in the oil market.
- China's Outlook: Sinopec's profit forecast surged, and China is opening crude oil imports to non-state entities, suggesting potential demand growth.
- Company Ratings: A mix of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings were given, with several companies showing promising earnings growth and valuations.
- Valuation Metrics: PER and EV/EBITDA were used to assess company valuations, with some showing attractive multiples and others indicating overvaluation.
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