20150630-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_375kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 30 Jun 2015
Core Content Overview
This document provides an update on the oil and gas market as of 30 June 2015, highlighting price movements, key developments in the industry, and recent reports from Maybank Kim Eng. It includes information on major oil and gas companies in Asia, their valuations, and analyst ratings.
Key Market Developments
-
Oil Price Movements:
- Brent crude fell by 2.0% to USD62.01/b.
- WTI crude dropped by 2.2% to USD58.33/b.
- The price of Dubai Fateh Spot decreased by 2.7% to USD59.85/b.
- China Daqing Spot fell by 2.3% to USD57.30/b.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot remained stable at USD80.14/b.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot declined by 2.5% to USD74.44/b.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot dropped by 0.1% to USD343.31/mt.
- Gold price increased by 0.4% to USD1,179.83/Oz.
- USD-CNY exchange rate was at 6.21, with a slight increase of 0.2%.
- DJI fell by 2.0% to 17,596.35.
- S&P 500 dropped by 2.1% to 2,057.64.
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Industry News:
- Big Oil Needs New Model: Morgan Stanley and BCG suggest that major oil companies must adapt their business models to thrive in the current low crude price environment, which could lead to a 50% gain in share prices.
- U.S. Light Oil Exports: U.S. exports of ultra-light crude doubled in May, with most shipments going to Europe.
- Shandong Acquires Northern Offshore: Shandong Offshore International made an all-cash offer of around $165 million for Northern Offshore, valuing it at NOK1.3 billion.
- China's Crude Oil Futures: China plans to launch its first crude oil futures contract in about three months, allowing foreign investors to trade.
- Gazprom's Investment in China: Gazprom will invest $8.8 billion in a gas pipeline to China over three years, under a 30-year supply contract worth $400 billion.
Latest Reports and Analyst Ratings
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Petronas Chemicals:
- Rating: HOLD
- Target price raised to MYR6.60 from MYR5.35.
- Petrochemical ASPs are down 25% YTD in USD and 13% in MYR.
-
NewOcean Energy:
- Rating: BUY
- Target price: HKD7.70, implying 105% upside.
- Volume and margin are on track to meet FY15 projections.
-
Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development:
- Rating: BUY
- Earnings are expected to more than triple in 2016 with the operation of a 270 MW coal-fired power plant.
- Valuations are considered attractive.
-
Gas Malaysia:
- Rating: HOLD
- FY15 spread guidance increased to MYR1.58/mmBTU.
- IBR may begin in January 2016 with a potential pass-through mechanism.
- Target price lowered to MYR2.65, a 12% decrease.
- Earnings revised by +68% / -12% / -33% for FY15 to FY17.
Company Valuations and Performance
Asia Oil & Gas Companies
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (29-Jun) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (%) | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 8.68 | 8.30 | 309.2 | 164.0 | 25.2 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.53 | 7.70 | 125.4 | 139.8 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 10.94 | 16.80 | 63.0 | 132.4 | 15.9 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 309.1 | NR | 41.5 | 21.1 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 13.3 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 990.9 | NR | 50.3 | 65.6 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 181.8 | 198.00 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 11.7 | 0.6 | 5.0 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 871.9 | NR | 9.9 | 17.4 | 20.1 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 15.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 729.1 | NR | 3.9 | 15.1 | 18.7 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 9.05 | 11.25 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 20.7 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 12.9 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.70 | 5.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 12.9 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| PTT Global Chemical | PTTGC TB | Buy | 69.3 | 87.00 | 9.2 | 24.5 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 363.0 | 395.00 | 30.7 | 48.1 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 55.3 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
Asian Oil & Gas Average
- PER (2015E): 19.5
- PER (2016E): 14.0
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 3.4
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 6.6
- Yield (2015E): 6.4
- Yield (2016E): 1.2
Oil-Service Companies
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (29-Jun) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (%) | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 12.52 | NR | 15.8 | 47.0 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 0.92 | 1.15 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 18.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.12 | 1.60 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 15.8 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.60 | 1.90 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 31.5 | 29.5 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.20 | 24.00 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 23.2 | 23.0 | 13.9 | 13.6 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
Summary of Key Points
- Crude Oil Prices: Declined across major benchmarks, with Brent and WTI down by 2.0% and 2.2% respectively.
- U.S. Exports: Doubled in May, primarily to Europe, indicating increased global demand for light crude.
- China's Development: Actively developing shale resources, with over 200 wells drilled in the past two years.
- Gazprom's Investment: Planning a $9 billion investment in a gas pipeline to China over three years.
- Company Valuations: Vary by region, with some companies showing attractive valuations and others facing challenges.
- Analyst Ratings: Highlight key investment opportunities and risks across the oil and gas sector in Asia.
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